EURUSD | How willl you trade it?

Ok, now that we've had a decisive move in the daily EUR/USD charts, I've decided how to start dealing. Sure fire profit.

I'm gonna start dealing dope. Don't tell nobody I tolds ya.
 
It definitely wasn't the pattern I was expecting, although I managed to get out a bit to the positive. The market seems quite conflicted, with some news priced in, and other small news items causing atypically large reactions. This is one of those markets where you want your stops tight -- better to lose a small bit than to have to sweat a 2-day cycle just to get back to where you once belonged.

MM
 
Yeah, right now I'm calling it a day but I've actually been short EUR/USD for days, but I was hedged since Friday by using several pairs due to a gold short that was so wrong I just wasn't willing to let it dip into my account (like an idiot)..my biggest problem was that until today the USD positive moves were all sluggish, and the USD negative ones weren't. Finally out now for the day up 40pips.
 
Ok...I wanted to point out something about the current situation for the newbies because the Euro has some news that's coming up all the time regarding Greece. 'CDS' means credit default swaps. What they are is trading futures just like bonds (which like USD securities were sometimes traded at negative interest, which meant that the holder of the bond would rather have less cash than the face value of the bond now than the face value plus interest at the time where they'd collect...that means they're betting the face value + interest in the future < the value of the cash they'd receive for less than face value now...this could be due to currency depreciation or high inflation forecasting), regular futures (which is a contract you have to pay an upfront fee for that is to buy or sell a commodity or stock in the future) or options (the same as futures except that you pay the upfront fee only to have the option to buy or sell at the current price in the future rather than being bound to the transaction in the future [you can opt out]), as CDS's are transferable. You can sell them to someone else at either a slight loss, or a slight profit.
CDS's on the other hand are a little bit more like insurance companies playing a game of old maid. As the likelihood of default on the loan goes up, the difference between the insurance payout and cost of the CDS will get bigger and bigger as it's better to get burned by the difference of your CDS purchase and what you receive for its sale than to actually have to pay out the insurance cost of the default. If the default happens, the one that has the CDS is the old maid. If the default doesn't happen, that's supafly.

The reason why this is in this thread is because the price of the CDS's are weighing on the Euro.
 
Tonight, I'm getting my groove back by switching to the Heiken Ashi bot and letting it trade the Euro downtrend. I have no idea why I didn't do this last night for USDJPY and AUDUSD... I must have been tired or something. Oh well.

I also got a quick scalp in on AUDUSD on a technical tip from ForexLive.com. There was a double top formation on the H1 chart with a break below 8910 indicating a drop. So, I put a sell stop and let Jamie's trade happen... which it did.

MM
 
I expect the trend for higher USD will reverse right now, and for the rest of tonight. (look at the time) but I'm unwilling to trade it, because I've had my first 'good' trading day all week.
I just want to put this up for the 'I told you so' or for your 'see what you know' value.
 
wtf just happened to the swissy?

Ok...that ladies and gentlemen, was an intervention.
Notice it didn't make a lick of difference to the EUR/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CAD, or XAU/USD
 
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SNB decided to wait until Europe went home to sell the Swissy like crazy. More of their efforts to keep their currency from gaining too much on the Euro. I just lucked into the spike and part of the retrace. Would have been 35 pips, but I gave back 10. Not a bad way to close out the week, though!

MM
 
yeah...I've been waiting on that for a week or two and was wailing on the sell button, but I kept getting the 'rates changed' aka 'I'm not giving you your goddamn money' message from my broker.
I heard they were actually selling for USD, not EUR.
 
Yeah bingo!! just finished updating my blog...... +90 pips for the weekend sir? don't mind if I do....
 
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