1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

Exclusive IAFT Analytics

Discussion in 'Company Articles' started by Irene Ivory, May 31, 2012.

  1. Irene Ivory

    Irene Ivory TradersUnion.com/IAFT Representative

    Joined:
    Apr 17, 2012
    Messages:
    959
    Likes Received:
    0
    Fundamental factors are against single currency, but since it is technically oversold and referendum in Ireland may support it

    Italian auction did not support single currency yesterday, as country could not sell bonds fully. Index of economic confidence in Eurozone was released worse than expected. Profitability of 10 year Spanish bonds is closing 7%. There are more than enough negative and euro continues to depreciate. Today in Ireland will be referendum on budget pact. If the outcome of whole nation voting is positive than single currency will be supported, if negative - …
    Planned for today:
    10:00 — Germany. Retail Sales (MoM);
    11:55 — Germany. Unemployment Change (000's);
    11:55 — Germany. Unemployment Rate (sa);
    16:15 — USA. ADP Employment Change;
    16:30 — USA. GDP (QoQ) (Annualized);
    16:30 — USA. GDP Price Index;
    16:30 — USA. Initial Jobless Claims;
    17:45 — USA. Chicago Purchasing Manager;
    19:00 — USA. DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories.
    Strong support on Germany can provide some support for euro, though will not change the current trend. Today data on labor market in the USA will be important – employment change from ADP (which can be traditional “indicator” of Friday data of employment in non farm sector) and the amount of initial jobless claims. Strong data will empower pressure on gold and yen, weak – support them.

    Author: James Harrison, IAFT Analyst
     
  2. Irene Ivory

    Irene Ivory TradersUnion.com/IAFT Representative

    Joined:
    Apr 17, 2012
    Messages:
    959
    Likes Received:
    0
    The Euro Dropped to 1.2320

    The euro/dollar is approaching the 23rd figure, but it couldn't manage to drop below 1.2323 . The pair renewed the lows after its attempts to recover, and it allowed the rate to increase up to 1.2430. This upward movement did not gain its development – the drop was resumed and as a result, the current minimum level was reached. The inability to increase above 1.2430 bodes no good for the pair bulls. The state of being oversold on the daily chart gives hope either for an upward correction or consolidation, but it is not the fact that from current levels. The lack of fresh negative impact regarding the Eurozone, as well as the bears' inability to overcome the 23rd figure will contribute to this fact. The resistance remains at 1.2430, support – at 1.2320.

    Author: Anthony Porter, IAFT Analyst
     
  3. Irene Ivory

    Irene Ivory TradersUnion.com/IAFT Representative

    Joined:
    Apr 17, 2012
    Messages:
    959
    Likes Received:
    0
    Weak data on employment in the USA may give a break to single currency (weekly review)

    Last week is characterized with weak data on Europe and growth of Spanish bonds profitability, as well as unending talks about Greece leaves Euro zone and banking crisis in Spain and bankruptcy of its bank, Bankia. It is quite enough for the single currency to be under severe pressure. AS a result euro/dollar pair refreshed minimums of this year at 1.2280 mark.
    Single currency enjoyed break from Friday data on employment in non farm sector in the USA, thety appeared to be +69000 level (which is strongly below projected +150000), also growth of unemployment rate from 8.1% to 8.2%. On the background of strong oversold condition this may facilitate certain recovery of euro/dollar, but the pair is not likely to reach some outstanding highs at this level.

    This week expected:
    Monday, 4th of June
    Great Britain — day-off;
    13:00 — Eurozone. Euro-Zone PPI (MoM)
    13:00 — Eurozone. Euro-Zone PPI (YoY)
    18:00 — USA. Factory Orders
    Tuesday, 5th of June
    Great Britain — day-off;
    05:30 — Australia. Current Account Balance
    06:30 — China. China HSBC Services PMI
    08:30 — Australia. RBA Cash Target
    11:50 — France. PMI Services
    11:55 — Germany. PMI Services
    12:00 — Eurozone. PMI Composite
    13:00 — Eurozone. Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM)
    14:00 — Germany. Factory Orders (MoM) (sa)
    17:00 — Canada. Bank of Canada Rate
    18:00 — USA. ISM Non-Manf. Composite
    22:15 — USA. Fed's Bullard to Speak on Housing in St. Louis
    Wednesday, 6th of June
    05:30 — Australia. Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)
    13:00 — Eurozone. Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)
    14:00 — Germany. Industrial Production (MoM) (sa)
    15:45 — Eurozone. ECB Announces Interest Rates
    16:15 — USA. Fed's Lockhart Speaks on Economy in Fort Lauderdale, Florida
    18:30 — USA. Crude Oil Inventories
    22:00 — USA. Fed's Beige Book
    Thursday, 7th of June
    03:50 — Japan. Foreign Buying Japan Bonds
    05:30 — Australia. Unemployment Rate
    09:45 — Swiss. Unemployment Rate
    11:00 — Swiss. Foreign Currency Reserves
    15:00 — Great Britain. BOE Asset Purchase Target
    15:00 — Great Britain. BOE Announces Rates
    16:30 — USA. Initial Jobless Claims
    18:00 — Canada. Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (sa)
    18:00 — USA. Fed's Bernanke Testifies to U.S. Lawmakers on Economic Outlook
    20:10 — USA. Fed's Lockhart Speaks on U.S. Economy in Georgia
    21:15 — USA. Fed's Kocherlakota Speaks in Minneapolis
    23:00 — USA. Consumer Credit
    Friday, 8th of June
    03:50 — Japan. GDP Annualized
    03:50 — Japan. Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)
    03:50 — Japan. GDP Deflator (YoY)
    03:50 — Japan. Current Account Total
    03:50 — Japan. Current Account Balance (YoY)%
    05:30 — Australia. Home Loans (MoM)
    05:30 — Australia. Trade Balance
    10:00 — Germany. Current Account (euro)
    10:00 — Germany. Trade Balance
    10:45 — France. Trade Balance (Euros)
    12:30 — Great Britain. PPI Input (nsa) (MoM)
    12:30 — Great Britain. PPI Output (nsa) (MoM)
    16:30 — Canada. Merchandise Trade
    16:30 — Canada. Unemployment Rate
    16:30 — Canada. Net Change in Employment
    16:30 — USA. Trade Balance
    18:00 — USA. Wholesale Inventories

    Current week is full of rate decisions from central banks. As a number of analysts think, Bank of Australia will lower the rate by 0.25 and it will put pressure on Australian dollar. If there is no lowering – upward correction will probably be developed. Bank of Canada, as expected, will keep the rate unchanged. Increase of the rate will increase growth of the national currency. It is not certain what will ECB will do. Lowering of the rate, as analysts think, is needed ti fight European financial crisis, but it can put additional pressure on euro. Single currency will not necessarily fall considerably in this case. Bank of England is likely to keep the rate on the same level, so important will be decision in terms of purchase assets program – whether it will be extended or not. In first case lowering of British pound should be expected.
    After bad data on employment in the USA market will listen to Fed representatives speeches, especially its chairman, Ben Bernanke, since topic of the third round of quantitative easing, which used to be on the background, became a key one.

    Author: James Harrison, IAFT Analyst
     
  4. Irene Ivory

    Irene Ivory TradersUnion.com/IAFT Representative

    Joined:
    Apr 17, 2012
    Messages:
    959
    Likes Received:
    0
    Oil approached to a hundred dollar per barrel

    Downward correction on dollar of the USA helped Brent oil to recover after it reached 95.61 level. Began from that level growth resulted in growth of oil price by 4 dollars, to 99.60 dollars per barrel. Thereby, quotes closely came to psychological 100 dollars per barrel level, which is now going to be a resistance.
    As a result of following rebound the cost dropped to 98.35, and this level does not let further falling, so far. However, falling of quotes is quite possible because of relevancy of downward trend on oil and probable strengthening of American dollar.
    Notwithstanding, feasible lowering of oil reserves in the USA may support quotes to a certain extent. Also, as IAFT analysts think, we should remember about conflict around Iranian nuclear program, that is far from being resolved. So, till next round of negotiations oil may be trading within the range of diapason limited by minimums at 95.61 and by resistance at 100 dollars per barrel.

    Author: James Harrison, IAFT Analyst
     
  5. Irene Ivory

    Irene Ivory TradersUnion.com/IAFT Representative

    Joined:
    Apr 17, 2012
    Messages:
    959
    Likes Received:
    0
    Pointless fluctuations of gold quotes go on

    One more day gold spent senselessly fluctuating within 10 dollars range – between levels 1612 (where it met support) and 1622 (where it faced resistance). Only jump up of the euro/dollar in Asian session facilitated gold to break upper border of yesterday diapason and it grew to 1629 dollars per ounce.
    Physical demand from China and India still remains on low level, that is, of course, cannot help bulls to develop upward dynamics in the metal and overcome resistance at 1630 dollars per ounce. Yesterday ISM business activity in service sector of the USA did not help bulls either, since it appeared better than forecast.
    However, absence of drivers did not encourage breaking of lower border. It is planned for today publication of ECB rate decision, and this event, as IAFT analysts consider, can influence precious metal dynamics. It is really possible that if there will be announcement of one more LTRO operation or/and lowering of interest rate gold will be able to move ahead. If there are no actions from ECB the metal will continue to repeat euro/dollar dynamic.

    gold06.06.2012.

    Author: Anthony Porter, IAFT Analyst
     
  6. Irene Ivory

    Irene Ivory TradersUnion.com/IAFT Representative

    Joined:
    Apr 17, 2012
    Messages:
    959
    Likes Received:
    0
    Gold Resumed the Downtrend

    Yesterday, the price of gold could not rise above 1628 dollars an ounce, although many market participants believed due to his speech, Ben Bernanke will give reason to think about the inevitability of the third round of quantitative easing. Weak data on employment in the non-farm sector of the U.S. and rising unemployment rate caused a hike in gold, because the FRS increasingly turns its attention to the labor market making a decision regarding the easing of the monetary policy.
    The speech of the head of the FRS disappointed the precious metal bulls. This resulted in sales of gold, which led to stops, and this fact only strengthened the downward momentum. As a result, quotes of gold dropped to 1564 dollars an ounce, passing the support at 1580.
    The loss of this support, according to IAFT analysts, significantly worsens prospects of the precious metal, and the next immediate target of the bears could become the proximity of 1550 – 1540. Growth above 1580 is needed for leveling the negative impact regarding gold, but the probability of this fact is extremely low.

    gold08.06.2012.

    Author: James Harrison, IAFT Analyst
     
  7. Irene Ivory

    Irene Ivory TradersUnion.com/IAFT Representative

    Joined:
    Apr 17, 2012
    Messages:
    959
    Likes Received:
    0
    Single currency managed to hold above its minimums (weekily review)

    Last week, as market expected, Bank of Australia lowered interest rate by 0.25%, this did not convince investors to continue selling Australian dollar. Bank's of Canada idleness was expected, it kept the rate unchanged. Market opinions divided with respect to ECB, though waiting position of the bank was not a surprise. Bank of England did not change the rate and decided not to extend purchase assets program. Macroeconomic statistics on countries separately and as a whole on Eurozone was more or less within projections. That is why single currency traded more under the influence of technical factors, than fundamental, holding above its minimums and trying to develop upward correction. The latter euro would do better, if there weren't worries around Spanish banking sector.
    Ben Bernanke's speech disappointed those who counted for quick implementation of third round of quantitative easing. Fed's chairman did give any specifics on this matter, but only used usual phrases about Fed's readiness to take action any time.
    Planned for this week:
    Monday, 11th of June
    10:45 — France. Industrial Production (MoM);
    10:45 — France. Industrial Production (YoY);
    10:45 — France. Manufacturing Production (MoM);
    10:45 — France. Manufacturing Production (YoY);
    18:15 — Great Britain. Bank of England Policy Maker Adam Posen Speaks in London;
    20:00 — USA. Fed's Lockhart Speaks on U.S. Economy in Chicago.
    Tuesday, 12th of June
    03:50 — Japan. Tertiary Industry Index (MoM);
    03:50 — Japan. Domestic CGPI (MoM);
    04:00 — Japan. BOJ Governor Shirakawa Speech to San Francisco Fed;
    09:30 — France. Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ);
    12:30 — Great Britain. Industrial Production (MoM);
    12:30 — Great Britain. Manufacturing Production (MoM);
    16:30 — USA. Import Price Index (MoM);
    19:30 — USA. Fed's Tarullo Speaks on Shadow Banking in San Francisco;
    21:05 — Great Britain. Bank of England Deputy Governor Paul Tucker Speaks in London.
    Wednesday, 13rd of June
    10:00 — Germany. Consumer Price Index (MoM);
    10:00 — Germany. CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM);
    11:15 — Swiss. Producer & Import Prices (MoM);
    13:00 — Eurozone. Euro-Zone Industrial Production (wda) (YoY);
    16:30 — USA. Producer Price Index (MoM);
    16:30 — USA. Advance Retail Sales;
    18:00 — USA. Business Inventories;
    18:30 — USA. Crude Oil Inventories;
    20:00 — Canada. Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan speaks at a Conf. in Canada.
    Thursday, 14th of June
    01:00 — New Zealand. RBNZ Official Cash Rate;
    08:30 — Japan. Industrial Production (MoM);
    11:30 — Swiss. SNB 3-Month Libor Target Rate;
    13:00 — Eurozone. Euro-Zone CPI (MoM);
    16:30 — Canada. New Housing Price Index (MoM);
    16:30 — Canada. New Housing Price Index (YoY);
    16:30 — USA. Annual Revisions: Current Account;
    16:30 — USA. Current Account Balance;
    16:30 — USA. Consumer Price Index (MoM);
    16:30 — USA. Initial Jobless Claims;
    22:00 — Great Britain. BOE's King and Chancellor Osborne Speak at Event in The UK.
    Friday, 15th of June
    04:00 — Japan. BOJ Target Rate;
    12:30 — Great Britain. Visible Trade Balance (GBP/Mln);
    13:00 — Eurozone. Euro-Zone Employment (QoQ);
    13:00 — Eurozone. Euro-Zone Employment (YoY);
    13:00 — Eurozone. Euro-Zone Trade Balance;
    16:30 — USA. Empire Manufacturing;
    17:00 — USA. Net Long-term TIC Flows;
    17:15 — USA. Industrial Production;
    17:55 — USA. U. of Michigan Confidence.
    Decisions on interest rates from central banks of New Zealand, Swiss and Japan are expected this week. There should not be any changes in their policies , that is why these events will hardly any noticeable influence on dynamics of national currencies.
    No final decision about QE3 in Ben Bernanke's speech does not exclude carrying out of quantitative easing, that is why macroeconomic statistics of the USA will still attract investors' attention. Data on inflation, manufacturing and labor market are included here. Any substantial worsening of statistics may lead to weakening of dollar and strengthening of Japanese yen and gold. The main background will remain debt crisis in Eurozone.

    Author: James Harrison, IAFT Analyst
     
  8. Irene Ivory

    Irene Ivory TradersUnion.com/IAFT Representative

    Joined:
    Apr 17, 2012
    Messages:
    959
    Likes Received:
    0
    The Crops Market was able to Partially Recover

    Quotes of wheat started increasing last week, which, however, did not receive its development higher than $630 for 100 bushels. As a result, reduction was resumed and the wheat price dropped to 612 dollars, that is to its current minimum value. Here, buyers manifested themselves once again and the price increased to 644 dollars.

    After a long period of the wheat growth (which was caused by fears that the weather would spoil the harvest), the quotes changed their trend into the downward one, since weather conditions returned to normal, and it reduced the stress on the wheat market. Pressure on prices is put by the forecasts of high yields and exports from Ukraine.

    The factor, which supportes the price of wheat, was the growth of the corn prices, which was previously decreased due to the USDA forecasts, suggesting its good yields. But the drought in some regions neutralized the effect of the USDA reports and became the cause of recovering the price of corn. Thus, after dropping to $550 for 100 bushels, the price increased to the level of $605, below which the corn is trading at the moment.
    Despite this, the COT data showed that large speculators reduced their long corn positions. Probably, this data has not simply reflect the recent growth of crops yet, which, besides the already mentioned factors, was affected by the U.S. dollar weakening.

    Author: Anthony Porter, IAFT Analyst
     
    #8 Irene Ivory, Jun 12, 2012
    Last edited: Jun 13, 2012
  9. Irene Ivory

    Irene Ivory TradersUnion.com/IAFT Representative

    Joined:
    Apr 17, 2012
    Messages:
    959
    Likes Received:
    0
    Gold Managed to Strengthen its Price

    Despite the negative dynamics in the euro/dollar, the price of gold increases. The metal managed to break through the resistance, which was provided by the level of 1600, and it increased up to 1618 dollars an ounce. Since gold and the euro/dollar usually trade in the direct correlation, then the metal's growth against the background of the euro/dollar's decrease can be attributed to purchases of gold for the euro in light of the escalating European crisis, that caused the weakening of the single currency all over the fronts.
    The Asian session was quiet for the precious metal again, i.e. the physical demand for gold from the part of India and China remains weak, which does not contribute to the prices' strengthening. Meanwhile, that is what the prices did yesterday — they strengthened.
    According to IAFT analysts, gold still has to take a step to compete for the levels of 1630 and 1640, in order to confirm the resumption of the upward trend. In case the value is not able to overcome these levels and stay above them, the pressure on the metal may be resumed, causing the reduction up to the 16th figure, which is the support this time. And then, the bears' next targets will be 1586 and 1582.

    gold13.06.2012.

    Author: Anthony Porter, IAFT Analyst
     
  10. Irene Ivory

    Irene Ivory TradersUnion.com/IAFT Representative

    Joined:
    Apr 17, 2012
    Messages:
    959
    Likes Received:
    0
    Release of Consumer Price Index in the USA may set direction in gold trading

    Retail sales in the USA demonstrated lowering once again, as well as Producer Price Index. It was enough for the talks about the third round of quantitative easing to appear encouraging yesterday growth of the gold from 1612 to 1624 dollars per ounce.
    Another trading day passed with strengthening of the precious metal cost and this lowers feasibility that falling resumes. Nevertheless, as IAFT analysts think, it is premature to rely on stability of the current tendency, as gold quotes need to overcome such levels of resistance as 1630 and 1640 dollars per ounce, that is not going to easy to do at this stage.
    But today's publication of CPI in the USA might encourage it. If the index is released at 0% against expected 0.2%, than buyers of precious metal may get active, leading to growth of the prices to above mentioned levels. If it is higher than expected, vice versa, will put pressure on gold and consequently its price may decline to 1600 dollars per ounce.

    gold14.06.2012.

    Author: James Harrison, IAFT Analyst
     

Share This Page