Fed Was Confident of Inflation Drop, Quiet on Future Action

Plato

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A united Federal Reserve was increasingly confident last month that inflation no longer posed a significant threat, which along with an "extremely weak" housing sector paved the way for its aggressive interest-rate reduction of a half-percentage point to 4.75%, according to the minutes of its Sept. 18 meeting. Yet officials were mum on the timing, or even the direction, of future policy moves.
 

timinaz

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A united Federal Reserve was increasingly confident last month that inflation no longer posed a significant threat, which along with an "extremely weak" housing sector paved the way for its aggressive interest-rate reduction of a half-percentage point to 4.75%, according to the minutes of its Sept. 18 meeting. Yet officials were mum on the timing, or even the direction, of future policy moves.
the general consensus (dailyfx is telling it is a virtual 100% certainty) is that they will drop the rate another .25. my question is - is the rate cut already priced into the market? Considering that 2 weeks or so ago that the consensus was about a 10% chance of a cut and since that time the E/U has bolted through record highs to new records almost daily. if so, that would mean that a .25 cut could be no news, and a .50 cut would be a surprise (so not as much movement as last month’s surprise) and no rate cut could be a huge disappoint to the market
 
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