Fibogroup Market Analysis 2020

FIBO Group representative
The virus is rapidly spreading: 1995 confirmed cases in China (this morning), 31- in other countries, including two cases in the USA. In the morning, confirmed 1 case Canada. In the Russia so far there are no confirmed cases.
The negative impact on the economy is no longer in doubt: Chinese cities are blocked, the inevitable deepest failure in the transport industry, a general decrease in the level of business activity. There is a risk that force majeure circumstances will reduce China’s desire to fulfill the stringent obligations of a trade deal with the USA (many of these obligations seemed impossible to many). As a result, pressure on commodity prices, capital outflows from developing countries.
Avoiding risks at the end of the week has already become pronounced and in the near future can only intensify.
How to trade on coronavirus?
The strategy is simple - buy dollars and gold.
Dates - all current week.
Last time, a similar case provoked a 10% correction on all world sites within two weeks. however, subsequently for 3-4 months prices recovered. This is the model we take for the base scenario.


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In data published today, #Switzerland reported its highest trade balance in 2019, which adds to the problems of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) because the US Treasury suspects SNB of manipulating the course.
During an incomplete trading session, the Swiss franc, by order, loses its advantage in tandem with the US dollar. From the point of view of impulse trading, a stable sell signal with a potential of 50 points has now formed on the #USDCHF currency pair.
Following a two-day meeting at 22:00 (+3 GMT) on January 29, a decision will be made on the interest rate of the Fed (federal funds target rate).
The press conference of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is expected at 22:30 (+3 GMT).
Against the background of the Chinese coronavirus factor that appeared a week earlier, the American dollar received support due to the massive exodus of investors from risky assets around the world. The protective function of the US dollar is increasing, causing pressure on emerging markets. Maybe partly because of the strong dollar and the lack of inflation, Donald Trump again on his Twitter calls on the Federal Reserve to lower the interest rate.
However, everyone understands that the unforeseen factor of the virus will restrain the leadership of the Central Bank from making hasty decisions.
Thus, today we expect the key rate to remain unchanged and soft rhetoric from Jerome Powell.
Also, despite a pause in the softening of the DCT at the moment, a surge in trading activity is expected across a wide range of currency pairs. Expanse and potential profit for intraday traders. Mostly in strategies to buy the US dollar.
/ Reuters
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‎•‎ General Australian inflation rose slightly, accelerating slightly from 0.5% in the 3rd quarter to 0.7% in the fourth quarter.

‎•‎ Effect on #AUDUSD quotes was minimal. As before, the downtrend remains.

‎•‎ The final inflation rate for 2019 was 1.8%, which is significantly lower than the values that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) was oriented on. This gives confidence that at the next meeting of the RBA, the key rate will remain unchanged
The basic scenario for the Australian - he has no chance, the data do not reach the forecast, the RBA pauses - #AUDUSD runs the risk of failing even lower by testing a multi-year low of 0.6670.

#forex #fibogroup #Australiandollar #kiwi #australia #dollar #currencypairs
•‎ The US Federal Reserve following the meeting on Wednesday left unchanged the key interest rate and parameters of operations in the money market.

•‎ The rate of federal funds, reduced three times last year, will remain in the range of 1.5-1.75% per annum. This decision was unanimously adopted by 17 members of the open market committee of the American central bank.
Major currency pairs reacted weakly to published data. A more pronounced reaction was in #GOLD gold and American stocks.

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OPEC countries are hastily preparing an emergency meeting in connection with the outbreak of coronavirus in China, due to which oil prices fell by 10% in a week.
On the one hand, you might think that they are alarmists, because ten percent volatility for oil is sensitive, but not fatal.
However, if you look ahead 3-6 months, we will see that against the background of a paralyzed infrastructure in the Asia-Pacific region, nobody needs oil. But nobody is getting it less. Therefore, if quotas are not changed now, the OPEC countries risk being left without buyers.
Base scenario:

- decline in oil quotes #BRENT c $59 to $53

- reduction of oil prices #WTI from $53 to $47 (Available for trading with us #USOIL)

The critical mark is $50 per barrel #WTI - if prices manage to break through it, there will be a risk of mass liquidation of positions in the futures market, which will fail quotes sharply down.

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The fear, uncertainty and doubt that engulfed capital markets give gold a moon ticket. Already in this quarter, the price of gold due to the merger of fundamental and technical factors can soar like a rocket.
•‎ Gold price rose 0.9% to $ 1,590.70 an ounce. Thursday is the highest in three weeks.

•‎ The influx of gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has already reached a seven-year peak.

•‎ Massage sales in capital markets and investor flight from risk.

However, not only coronavirus leads to growth. The decision of the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates and fix them at a level significantly below the historical average level also increased the attractiveness of the precious metal. As a non-profitable asset, gold is an attractive investment at low interest rates.
Nearby gold targets:
- seven-year peak value - $1,619.60
- psychological level - $1700.00

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