Fibogroup Market Analysis 2020

fibogroup.com

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OPEC production in January fell by 509 thousand barrels per day. A collapse in production was observed in Libya - by 344 thousand barrels per day to 796 thousand barrels per day (in the 4th quarter of 2019, the country produced 1.16 million).

In a monthly review published yesterday, OPEC lowered its estimate of production growth in the United States this year from 1.43 to 1.26 million barrels per day.

Estimation of production growth in countries outside OPEC is also reduced - from 2.35 to 2.25 million.
The new reality has deprived the old OPEC cartel of its former power: threats to reduce production have ceased to frighten anyone. If something can greatly affect the oil market, these are serious changes on the demand side.

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Inflation in the United States, measured by the Core Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 2.3% year-on-year in January to match December readings, monthly data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. This value was higher than market expectations of 2.2%.

The dollar ignored these values, slightly changing by symbolic 0.03%

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The euro is rapidly getting cheaper in the #forex market to the accompaniment of the ECB's “printing press” and depressing macro-statistics, which showed a record decline in industry in the EU for 10 years.

The ECB’s money issue, which since September last year has been buying assets from the market in the amount of 20 billion euros per month, continues to press on the foreign exchange market.

Until January, this inflow of liquidity was offset by the operations of the Fed, which in the fall - simultaneously with Europe - resumed pumping, but the Fed’s balance has not been growing for six weeks now.

In other words, the euro is becoming more and more on the market, while the dollar mass remains the same. This is what creates the imbalance of foreign exchange flows.

The EU has stalled the main export and industrial engine: in Germany, production volumes have fallen by 7.1%.

The coronavirus epidemic in China, breaking global production chains, will push the euro area's largest economy into recession. There can be no question of any growth in the euro with such macro statistics.

To understand what will happen to the Euro, just remember 2014-2015. Then the launch of the "printing press" of the ECB collapsed the course of the single European currency from 1.4 to 1.03 dollars.

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fibogroup.com

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Weekly Calendar:

02/17/2020, Monday
• Day off - President's Day.

02/18/2020, Tuesday
• Labor market data block from the UK.

02/19/2020, Wednesday
• January inflation in the UK.
• January #PPI inflation in the US.
• January inflation in Canada.
• Publication of Fed protocols.

02/20/2020, Thursday
• Labor market data block from Australia.
• #China interest rate.
• Publication of ECB protocols.
• US crude oil reserves.

02/21/2020, Friday
• #PMI preliminary data for February USA.
• #PMI preliminary data for February Germany.
• January #inflation in the Eurozone.

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fibogroup.com

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The Japanese economy collapsed by more than 6%, and because of the coronavirus it could even be in a recession.
Japan experienced a landslide drop in GDP in the fourth quarter of 2019. According to the government on Monday, in October-December, the size of the economy shrank 6.3% in annual terms and 1.6% from the previous quarter.
The recession was a record since 2014 and almost doubled the average forecast of analysts
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The fact that the Japanese economy will fall was predictable: this is the result of an increase in the “consumption tax” from 8% to 10% (an analogue of the sales tax). As a result, the volume of private consumption, which forms about 60% of GDP in Japan, fell in the last quarter of last year.
Also negatively affects the Japanese economy:
Last October, typhoon Hagibis severely disrupted traffic and production chains in central Japan.
Coronavirus (66 patients in Japan), this affects primarily trade with China.
As a result, a combination of factors can lead to the fact that in the current quarter the economy will again be in the red. A recession for two consecutive quarters is a recession.

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fibogroup.com

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#GBPUSD is growing as UK employment hits a record high and wages hit the peak of 2008.
According to the Office of National Statistics, the UK employment rate was estimated at a record high:

76.5%, which is 0.6% higher than a year earlier, and 0.4% more than in the previous quarter;

The UK economy adds 180 thousand jobs in December.

This adds to the positive and strength of the national currency, which is growing steadily no matter what.

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fibogroup.com

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Macro data published this week of the Japanese economy finally hit the Japanese yen:
at the beginning of the week it was a report on GDP, today in terms of imports / exports. The whole European trading session in the Japanese yen is a large-scale rally. Investors sell everything and go in dollars.
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#USDJPY updates annual highs. Together with the Japanese yen, a rally is also taking place in gold quotes, which has reached a seven-year high.
We recommend that you double your vigilance and comply with risk management in the current difficult situation.

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fibogroup.com

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Forest fires and coronavirus have had a major impact on the Australian economy, and this is reflected in the data released today on unemployment and the number of employees for January.

Based on these data, we can say that the economy has serious structural problems (in particular, low wage growth).

Economists predict a further increase in unemployment and a subsequent reduction in interest rates in the coming months.
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#AUDUSD on the published data broke through the minimum price of the DECADE and continues to fall. We believe that the downtrend will continue throughout the current month.

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fibogroup.com

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As concerns over the effects of coronavirus on the market grow, institutional investors have no choice but to remain in the market as they grow, and they need something to insure this from coronavirus and all other problems.

Gold easily satisfies this problem of investors, trading above its maximum of $ 1,613.30 - the highest level since March 2013.

We are currently in a situation where stocks are too expensive and bond yields are too small. Therefore, gold is a profitable tool not only for traders, but also for investors.

According to analysts at the international bank Citigroup, the idea of investing in gold is pretty good, and they forecast growth of #XAUUSD to $ 2000 this year.

*broker note: gold trading is available on all types of accounts.

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fibogroup.com

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The flight of investors to a safe place leaves behind all currencies except the US dollar and Gold. The funds were simply forced to leave Asia and in search of security in the US dollar, gold and bonds.
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#AUDUSD was trading at an 11-year low of $ 0.6603.
#NZDUSD - at a four-month low of $ 0.6310.
#USDJPY has grown 2% in the past two days due to weak Japanese economic data and concerns about the coronavirus.
#EURUSD this week dropped to a 3-year low and is trading at $ 1.0794.
#XAUUSD is trading at 7-year highs.
#UST yield on 10-year treasury bonds below 1.5%.
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In the current situation, the US economy is simply less prone to any slowdown in world trade, and for the foreign exchange market it is the US dollar that is an obvious candidate. This will be the main reason for the new purchase of the dollar against the euro in the near future.

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