Fibogroup Market Analysis 2020

US import prices fell record 6 months

Import prices in the #US. in February fell the most in six months due to falling oil prices, and economists said they could fall even further due to the coronavirus pandemic and the #oil price war between #SaudiArabia and #Russia.

The virus has disrupted supply chains since #China, the main source of resources used in many plants in the United States, has shown the worst performance since 2015.

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Financial calendar

Week starts with stress. The Fed cut rates to zero and launches QE by $ 700 billion. The vast majority of global regulators blow dust from printing presses and run them at full capacity. The blame for the global epidemic of coronavirus.
We think that the markets will continue to fall all this week. Macro indicators of the economic calendar will be relegated to the background. We recommend restricting trade and monitoring the actions of the Central Bank of the world in published press releases.
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Weekly Calendar:
03/16/2020, Monday
US Federal Reserve interest rate
#interest rate RBNZ

03/17/2020, Tuesday
#unemployment in the UK.
#US inflation

03/18/2020, Wednesday
#EU inflation in February.
#inflation in Canada for February.
- US crude oil reserves

03/19/2020, Thursday
#GDP in New Zealand for 4 square meters.
#unemployment in Australia.
#interest rate of the Central Bank of Switzerland

03/20/2020, Friday
#inflation CPI #Canada Basic

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Opinions: The market has bottomed out

According to Morgan Stanley analysts, the global financial markets are currently in the bottom-up phase, so investors should strengthen their positions in the market for risky assets and sell #dollar #US.
Strategists recommend buying #EURUSD with a target of 1.16
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According to the analytical department, the recovery will not be limited only to the growth of #EURUSD
We assume that the recovery will affect #gold, all commodity currencies about the main currency pairs.
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Opinions: The market has bottomed out

According to Morgan Stanley analysts, the global financial markets are currently in the bottom-up phase, so investors should strengthen their positions in the market for risky assets and sell #dollar #US.
Strategists recommend buying #EURUSD with a target of 1.16
==========
According to the analytical department, the recovery will not be limited only to the growth of #EURUSD
We assume that the recovery will affect #gold, all commodity currencies about the main currency pairs.
=====
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definitely! Think we will see a harder market crash than 2008... tough times,and expecially for the smaller business out there. i really hope the economy stands strong and recovers
 
"Your Royal Highness": US asks Saudi Arabia to stop

According to Politico, 13 Republican senators addressed a letter to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

- “Your Royal Highness,” - they write. “ - The United States has for many years been a strong and reliable partner of Saudi Arabia. In the light of this close strategic relationship, the kingdom’s plans to lower prices and increase production capacity were deeply worried. This led to the collapse of world oil prices in a situation when the financial markets of the world have already suffered serious losses. "
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Since the beginning of 2020, the price of Brent crude oil has fallen by 54% to $30.5, that is, towards the levels of the end of 2015. High-cost shale oil production is becoming unprofitable.
Shales are forced to reduce production, up to the conservation of deposits. Upstream companies have significantly reduced costs in the hope of waiting for a period of low oil prices.
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In order to get out of the depths of stagnation, American oil companies need quotes of their oil at about $50 per barrel (according to Rystad Energy, only a few shale companies have a break-even level below current prices, and more than 95% receive losses)
Even if a miracle happens and #WTI prices stabilize at $40, it will still entail the collapse of the US oil industry.

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Australian dollar at 17 year low

The Australian dollar continues to experience the fallout caused by the coronavirus as it tumbled to a 17 year low in yesterday’s trading session against its US counterpart, and there is little reason to believe the currency will recover any time soon.

A weaker Australian dollar normally helps the local economy with increased demand for domestic products such as Iron ore and services which includes the tourism sector. The coronavirus outbreak means the usual benefits that a lower Aussie dollar provides will now be put on hold until there is more clarity surrounding the issue.

"A lower Aussie dollar is good when global growth is good because we have demand for our goods at a cheaper price” said IFM Investors chief economist Alex Joiner
"The most stark example of that has been services exports, with tourism and education much less expensive. In the current environment, there's just no demand for those services and no scope for those services given the travel ban." he added.

The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to cut interest rates on Thursday to a new low of 0.25 percent on Thursday afternoon to support the Australian economy which has been in free fall since the inception of the coronavirus.
The central bank is also expected to announce measure on introducing a quantitive easing program, following in the footsteps of the US as an added measure to support the economy.

These moves may help the local economy to a certain extent, but the biggest worry is China, Australia’s largest trading partner and how long it will take to recover economically, which according to some analysts, will take an extended period of time.

"The initial data from China suggests that its economy was hit far harder than projected, though a tentative stabilization has begun. It is difficult to measure how much output will be permanently lost as a result of COVID-19" said S&P chief economist Paul Gruenwald said.

"While the focus now (In China) is rightly on containing the virus and measuring its downside effects, the strength of the eventual recovery will depend crucially on how much output can be replaced." He added.

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Saudi Arabia promised months to fill the market with cheap oil

"The Department of Energy has instructed Saudi Aramco to continue delivering oil at 12.3 million barrels per day over the coming months," the Saudi Arabian Energy Ministry said in a document.

The maximum production policy was announced by Saudi Arabia after Russia refused to cut production. The kingdom kept its production at around 9.7 million barrels per day and is now increasing it by a third. In addition, Riyadh announced a sharp decline in prices for its varieties: April shipments to Europe will be shipped at a price 10.25 dollars below Brent.
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As a result of the policy of maximum production, the United States will suffer first of all.
Their oil storage facilities are half full and can accommodate another 135 million barrels.
With a weekly increase in US commercial oil reserves of 14 million b / d, all storage facilities will be full in 10 weeks.
Lack of storage will drive up the cost of freighting tankers that can be filled with oil in the absence of ground reservoirs, and will make exporting black gold from the US economically pointless.

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⚡️ Global recession ⚡

Global markets have so far failed to find at least some respite and be in a downward corkscrew.

Dollar updates historic highs.

The British pound fell to its lowest level against the dollar in 35 years.

Oil broke through $ 25 per barrel in value (Iraq called on OPEC to convene an extraordinary OPEC + meeting to stabilize the market)

Bank of Australia lowered its key rate and moves to manual control of profitability [state bonds]
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We believe that the reversal is close, because liquidity crisis is over. This is indicated by the dynamics of the value of gold, which is consolidating in the new range. Investors have ceased to get rid of defensive assets, as the Fed and other Central Banks of the world coordinate efforts to ensure dollar liquidity around the world using tools such as swap lines. We expect these fears to dissipate and then we can expect a recovery that could be as strong as the fall in recent days.
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Counterattack of central banks

Central banks around the world include anti-virus boost.
The European Central Bank has launched a program of redemption of bonds worth 750 billion euros, which will last at least until the end of the year.
The Central Bank of Australia lowered the rate to 0.25%, Brazil - to a record low 3.75%, and the Swiss regulator, although it kept the rate, announced an increase in foreign exchange interventions against the strengthening of the franc.

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