Fibogroup Market Analysis 2020

[fibogroup.com]

Economic calendar for the week

The second wave of the pandemic: emerging markets and oil are declining due to concerns about the second wave of coronavirus amid a new outbreak in Beijing and rising infections in several US states and other countries. The dollar against this background shows strength. On Saturday 25 thousand infections were detected in the United States - a maximum since May 2. But in Europe, they state a complete victory over the virus - in all countries of the European Union, logistics and flights are renewed.
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Weekly calendar:
06/16/2020, Tuesday
- Bank of Japan rate; Press conference of the Head of the bank;
- The Fed Chairman will present a semi-annual report to the Senate Banking Committee;
- Retail sales in the USA;
- US Industrial Production;
- IEA monthly oil market report.
06/17/2020, Wednesday
- OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report;
- UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May;
- EU Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May;
- Canada Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May.
- US crude oil reserves.
06/18/2020, Thursday
- New Zealand GDP for the 1st quarter;
- Employment rate in Australia in May;
- Bank of England rate;
- The rate of the National Bank of Switzerland.
06/19/2020, Friday
- EU online summit on anti-crisis fund of 750 billion euros.
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[fibogroup.com]

Marketwatch
Weak global economic recovery

In today's release, we’ll cover the following topics:
- China’s inability to recover from quarantine.
- The German Minister of Economics pessimistic view on rapid economic growth.
- The Stock market in the red zone.

The Chinese Bureau of Statistics said that the economy has not returned to its normal level and this is a very bad signal for the global economy. After all, China was the first to quarantine, but as yet has not fully recovered, due to among other things, external risks. Let me remind you that China is one of the biggest producers in the world, so the current low purchasing power from the USA and Europe, as well as the conflict with the USA, is putting immense pressure on the world’s second largest economy.

Now let's move on to Europe. There are no important macroeconomic publications today, but even so, trading activity remains elevated. I’ll draw your attention to a decrease in interest for risk, which is due the low rates of recovery in business activity in most countries. Thus, the German Ministry of Economy does not expect a quick recovery and said at the moment it is only about achieving the so-called “bottom”.

I will draw your attention to the EUR / USD currency pair where buying activity has declined rapidly. Despite a statement by the German Ministry of Economy, demand under the strong technical support level of 1.1235 remains stable, indicating clear market uncertainty. As a result, there is a risk we may remain within the trading range of 1.1200–1.1320

Moving to the American trading session and we can notice the general weakening of the stock indices during premarket. As a result, with the opening of exchanges in the United States, selling activity may increase. One of the bearish factors remains internal conflicts and unrest and a selloff in the stock market will strengthen the USD.

During the European session, we observed a moderate growth of the GBP / USD pair, but the overall direction for this currency pair remains downward. Therefore, there is a possibility of further weakening on the back of a strengthening USD. With the opening of trading session in the United States, volatility may increase.

That’s all from me. Closely monitor the news background and be prepared for all the surprises of the market.
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[fibogroup.com]

Sales continue - the dollar grows stronger

Technical overbought after the historic recovery of stock markets in April-May made itself felt - we are witnessing a natural correction and local strengthening of the dollar. Technical sales are also fueled by the actions of the Fed. The American regulator has reduced the infusion into the economy thereby releasing steam.

According to May results, Chinese industry almost won back the decline, but domestic demand has not yet managed to reach pre-crisis levels - a clear trend is seen in the improvement of the business environment:
• Industry: 4.4% yy
• Retail sales: -2.8%yy
• Investments (from the beginning of the year): -6.3% yy
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