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Discussion in 'Press Releases' started by StraussX, Jul 7, 2019.

  1. StraussX

    StraussX Followme Representative

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    09.11 #analysisi #forex #socialtrading

    The #EURUSD has been fluctuating between two converging trend-lines over the past one week or so, forming a symmetrical triangle on hourly charts. Wednesday's early uptick quickly ran out of the steam, rather met with some fresh supply near the triangle resistance.


    The #intraday #pullback has now dragged the pair back below 100-hour SMA, the intraday bias might have shifted in favor of bearish traders and sets the stage for a move towards testing the triangle support, currently near the 1.1020 region, which is followed by 200-hour EMA.


    Due to drifting into the bearish territory on the 1-hourly chart, failure to defend the mentioned support levels might indicate the resumption of the prior/well-established bearish trend.


    The pair might then turn vulnerable to slide back towards challenging multi-year swing lows, around the 1.0925 area, before eventually sliding farther below the 1.0900 round figure mark towards testing its next major support near the 1.0835-30 region - levels now seen since May 2017.


    On the other hand, the 1.1050 region might continue to attract some fresh #supply, which if cleared decisively should negate any near-term bearish bias and prompt some aggressive short-covering move and assist the pair to surpass last week's swing high resistance near the 1.1085 level.
     

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  2. StraussX

    StraussX Followme Representative

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    0912 #analysis #EURUSD #forex #socialtrading
    #EURUSD pair came under some renewed selling pressure on Wednesday and tumbled back below the key 1.10 psychological mark, albeit managed to recover around 25-pips from daily lows. The shared currency took a sharp knock in reaction to the German growth downgrade by the #Kiel #Institute for the World Economy, now expected to contract by -0.3% in Q3 following -0.1% in the previous quarter and meeting the criteria of a ‘technical recession’.
    #USD remained well supported by a strong follow-through pickup in the US Treasury bond yields amid growing optimism over the resumption of the #USChina trade talks. On the economic data front, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) for August bettered market expectations and remained supportive of the bid tone surrounding the greenback. The headline PPI came in to show a rise of 0.1% during the reported month while the core PPI, which excludes food and energy prices rose 0.3%.
    #TradeTensions between the world's two largest economies eased further on Wednesday after the US President #Trump said that he will delay a planned tariff hike on Chinese goods by two weeks as a gesture of goodwill after Beijing exempted a range of American goods from its own tariffs. The market reaction, however, turned out to be rather muted, as investors seemed reluctant to place any aggressive bets ahead of Thursday's key event risk - the highly anticipated #ECB monetary policy decision.
    The #ECB is widely expected to #lower #InterestRates further into the negative territory and also announce a new #QEprogram, though opinions on the stimulus package are divided and thus, increases the relevance of Thursday's rate decision. This will be followed by the post-meeting press conference, where comments by the ECB President Mario Draghi will further collaborate towards infusing volatility around the EUR crosses. From the US, the release of consumer inflation figures for the month of August might influence the USD price dynamics but seems more likely to be overshadowed by the post-ECB volatility.
    Short-term #TechnicalAnalysis
    From a technical perspective, the #EURUSD on Wednesday broke through a symmetrical triangle formation on hourly charts and confirmed a fresh bearish breakdown. However, the fact that the pair managed to defend the 1.10 handle on a closing basis warrant some caution before placing any aggressive bearish bets. The pair now seems to have stabilized around 200-hour SMA, just below the triangle support breakpoint near the 1.1025 region. Any subsequent up-move now seems to confront fresh supply near mid-1.1000s, resistance marked by 38.2% Fibo. level of the 1.1251-1.0926 downfall, above which a bout of short-covering now seems to assist the pair to surpass the recent swing higher - around the 1.1070-80 region - and test 61.8% Fibo. level resistance near the 1.1125-30 area en-route the next major hurdle near the 1.1175-80 region (100-day SMA).
    On the flip side, sustained weakness below the 1.10 handle, leading to a subsequent slide through the overnight swing lows - around the 1.0985, might now turn the pair to fall back towards the multi-year swing lows - around the 1.0925 area before eventually dropping farther below the 1.0900 round figure mark towards testing its next major support near the 1.0835-30 region.
     
  3. StraussX

    StraussX Followme Representative

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    #WeekAhead #forex #news #followme #socialtrading

    Hey friends! Happy new week.

    Here are the data highlights for this week:

    (GMT+8)

    Monday:

    10:00 Chinese industrial production, fixed asset investment and retail sales



    Tuesday:

    09:30 RBA Meeting Minutes

    17:00 German ZEW economic sentiment and

    21:15 US industrial production


    Wednesday

    16:30 UK Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Aug)

    20:30 Canada BoC CPI


    Thursday:

    02:00 US FOMC Economic Projections

    02:00 US Fed's Monetary Policy Statement REPORT

    02:00 US Fed Interest Rate Decision

    02:30 US FOMC Press Conference SPEECH

    06:45 AUD Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q2)

    09:30 AUD Employment Change s.a. (Aug)

    09:30 AUD Unemployment Rate s.a. (Aug)

    10:00 JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision

    10:00 JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement REPORT

    14:00 JPY BoJ Press Conference SPEECH

    19:00 UK BoE Asset Purchase Facility

    19:00 UK BoE Interest Rate Decision

    19:00 UK BoE MPC Vote Hike

    19:00 UK Bank of England Minutes REPORT

    19:00 UK BoE MPC Vote Cut

    19:00 UK BoE MPC Vote Unchanged


    Friday:

    20:30 Canadian Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul)


    #FederalReserve is expected to cut rate about 25-basis point. It would be a major shock if the Fed doesn’t deliver. But some, including Donald Trump, want more than just 25 basis points. In fact, the US President has called for “boneheads” Fed to cut rates to zero or lower in a tweet this week. Understandably, with US data not deteriorating as badly as, say, Germany, the Fed is reluctant to cut aggressively and rightly so. The risk therefore is that the Fed refuses to provide a dovish outlook for interest rates. In this potential scenario, a rate cut might only weigh on the dollar momentarily. With most other major central banks already being or turning dovish, the Fed will also need to be super dovish for the dollar to end its bullish trend. Otherwise, the greenback may find renewed bullish momentum, even if the Fed cuts by 25 basis points.



    The #Swiss National Bank will have to say about the #ECB’s decision to resume bond buying, given the recent appreciation of the franc against the shared currency. The #BoJ is unlikely to respond to the #ECB’s resumption of bond buying. It may keep the current policy of controlling the yield curve. For one, the global economy hasn’t deteriorated too significantly to exacerbate deflationary pressures in the export-oriented Japanese economy. For another, the there’s only limited number of policy options left at the BoJ's disposal. Thus, cutting short-term interest rates further into the negative may be an option, but to be used on another occasion.
     

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