Forecasts by EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY, GOLD & dollar index

STRATEGIST

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EUR/USD

H4 graph
The pair has broken the "diamond" figure ("triangle" figure of the previous forecast - "E-E+" and now it's aimed at "В+" trend line, 1.3220 level, which is the target of the pair. Next, the pair will reach the target of 1.2760 - 1.3800 in the case of "B+" trend line breaking, but first it will need to overcome the resistance at 1.3300. The target of the "diamond" figure lies above 1.3300 level, thus the pair will get over it. The support is currently at 1.2950. Important news - Bernanke's speech is to be released on Tuesday and USA trading balance is to be released on Wednesday. If the market turns inert before those news are published, then there will be a reviving along with extension of the descending trend in USD.






GBP/USD

H4 graph
As supposed, the pair had broken the "diamond" figure upwards, it approached "C+" trend line (marked blue in the previous forecast, now it's marked red), 1.4760 level, which eventually has been broken by the pair afterwards. The resistance at the moment is "D+" trend line – the higher bound of the side trend from the daily graph. Returning to the support at 1.4760 is possible now, but after that I'm expecting extension of the ascending trend. Upon "D+" trend line breaking and passing 1.5000 level, the pair will move towards 1.5450, it's a good chance to happen tomorrow.






USD/CHF

H4 graph
The pair is in "E-E+" side trend, upon breaking of which ("E+" trend line), it will move towards "K" trend line, 1.3000 level, and possibly towards 1.2000. Resistance is at 1.1655, but there is a chance that the pair's correction will occur a little higher. The ascending correction was provoked by "R" trend line. I'm expecting "E" trend line's breaking and reaching the target of 1.3000 - 1.2000.
Breaking of "triangle" figure was supposed to go downwards as well as upwards in the previous forecast. Eventually the figure had been broken upwards, but that was a false breaking, due to the fact that it was not supported either by eur/usd, or by gbp/usd - the pairs against which the dollar was dropping, not rising. Besides, franc had broken the figure before all important news was released.

 

STRATEGIST

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H4 graph
The pair didn’t manage to get over "D+" trend line and bounced off it. After that "а-а+" trend was broken, clearing the way for dropping below "С+" trend line. The pair has finished its ascending motion with the breaking of "К-К+" trend. Now the target of dropping is the level of 1.4050, while resistances are at 1.4510 and 1.4630.




Daily graph
"D+" trend line suppressed the ascending motion. That event was followed by repeated top-down breaking of "С+" trend line. Proceeding from 4-hours graph, the pair is now having the target of lowering at 1.4050. Taking into account that the pair is located above "В-В+" trend, the target level 1.5300 remains actual. Lowering to 1.4050 should be considered correctional; we should expect continuation of the ascending trend from that level with the target at 1.5300.

 

STRATEGIST

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How to use forecasts based on the "Strategist" trading system

Content:
1. Forecasts update frequency
2. Forecasting time frames / term of the forecast
3. What the system is using (basis of the trading system)
4. Opening positions
5. Variants of events to develop
6. Designation of trend lines



1. Forecasts update frequency
Forecasts are updated regularly on the basis of relevancy. Forecasts won’t be updated (current forecast remains valid) until the pair will reach targets given in the forecast, or the technical picture will change dramatically.


2. Forecasting time frames / term of the forecast
Forecasts are given over two time frames: H4 and Daily (forecasts over time frames lower than H4 are not given). Forecast relevancy (reaching the target of the pair) over H4 time frame lasts for a period of three to seven days. For Daily time frame this period varies from two weeks to a month (sometimes more).
A strategic target of the pair is given over Daily time frame, and a local target is given over H4 (relative to Daily; H4 time frame represents internal waves of the trend from Daily time frame). Therefore, there are two presentations: a strategic (long-term) and a local one (short-term).


3. What the system is using (basis of the trading system)
The "Strategist" trading system uses classic trends and figures of technical analysis.
Examples of trends:

Trends are being built basing on trend lines.

Examples of figures:

Figures are being built basing on trend lines, just like trends are.


4. Opening positions
A position is opened when a trend line gets broken (when the pair breaks a trend line and then goes for 30 pips in the same direction). A stop loss is set behind a trend line. Upon breaking of every trend line or trend, a new target is formed, and the market has to reach it.


An example of trend breaking:


The breaking of a trend line/trend/figure can be a false one when, after the breaking, the pair repeatedly breaks the same trend line without reaching the pair’s target. In case of the false breaking the forecast becomes irrelevant.

Breaking of trend lines at daily time frames is connected with releases of important news. Sometimes a trend line can be broken before news is released but, as a rule, such breaking proves to be a false one and the true breaking happens after news release.


5. Variants of events to develop
In forecasts multiple variants of events to develop are suggested at once. Variants come true in case of breaking either one or another trend line. Each variant takes place under a specific condition (causal connection), which should be satisfied in order to realize the variant.

An example of forecasting:
GBP/USD pair is in “a-a+” ascending trend and is constrained within the range (1.4700 – 1.4940) between two trend lines: “C+” and “D+”. There are 3 variants of events to develop:
1. Variant: the pair breaks “D+” trend line and heads to the target level 1.5800.
This forecast is cancelled in case the pair manages to drop below “D+” trend line after breaking it (indicates a false breaking).
2. Variant: the pair stays in range 1.4700 – 1.4940 between “C+” and “D+” trend lines. Upon bounce off “C+” trend line the pair will head to “D+”, break it and make its way to the target level 1.5800.
This forecast is cancelled in case: see Variant 1.
3. Variant: the pair will not manage to break “D+” trend line. After breaking “C+” trend line and then also “a-a+” trend, the pair will head to the target level 1.4050.
This forecast is cancelled in case the pair won’t be able to develop a descending motion after breaking “a-a+” trend and it will go up above “a” and “C+” trend lines (higher than level 1.4700).
http://forexmillion.com/uploads/posts/1234732378_5-1.gif - img

Forecast result:
http://forexmillion.com/uploads/posts/1234732330_5-2.gif - img



6. Designation of trend lines
Trend lines are designated by letters with only purpose to make it clear for the reader of a forecast which line exactly is described. As a rule, trends at H4 graphs are designated as “a-a+”, at daily graphs as “B-B+”, and at weekly graphs as “C-C+”. The rest of trend lines designations are made arbitrarily.


Trading signals
Trading signals for given forecasts will possibly appear at the site for free access after some time.


RISKS WARNING
Forecasts are not the trading signals! They help to reveal the direction of the market’s motion as well as the market’s future intentions to move along one or another side upon satisfying one or another specific condition. When you trade, rely solely on signals of your trading system; use forecasts only for seeing the market’s prospect and the targets of the market’s motion. The trading radically differs from the forecasting. In the situation when an analyst sees a straightforward motion of the market, a trader can close a number of deals, most of which will probably be unprofitable if a trader will not observe the rules of his or her trading system.
The author of the forecasts is not liable for the results of trading that is guided by offered forecasts.
 
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STRATEGIST

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EUR/USD forecast

H4 graph
The pair is being traded in the "a-a+" half-side half-ascending trend. A trading range 1.2604 - 1.2755 has been formed by numerous resistances from above

and supports from below. I can't say that the pair has an ascending intention right now, because the higher bound of the side daily trend - "B+" trend line -

is crossing the level 1.2770. This trend line will hold up all ascending attempts until it gets broken.
Analyzing the present picture, three variants of events to develop are seen:
1. continuation of trading in the side trend, in 1.2604 - 1.2755.
2. by breaking the lower bound of "a-a+" trend ("a" trend line) the pair heads to the "Z" trend line - level 1.2430 (if the pair drops below 1.2600).
3. by breaking "B+" trend line the pair heads to the level 1.3110 (if the pair rises above 1.2820).




Daily graph
The pair is being traded down the "B-B+" side descending trend, which has a potential to carry the market up to the level 1.2320. I can't tell about a clear

development of any picture unless the pair exits from this trend by breaking its higher bound "B+". If "B+" will get broken and the pair goes above level

1.2840, then reaching of the support at 1.3300 is guaranteed.

 

STRATEGIST

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EUR/USD

H4 graph
The pair is confidently moving along the ascending trend. Trend’s target is at levels between two resistances: 1.3820 and 1.4000, where "Y" trend line passes. I expect a potential turn from those levels. There are no signs of trend’s turn yet, that’s why ascending motion is confident for now.




Daily graph
If signs of trend’s turn appear, the pair will perform a correction to 1.3300, followed by resuming of the ascending trend targeted at testing the "Y" trend line. In case "Y" trend line will get broken, the figure #44 will be the pair’s next target.

 

STRATEGIST

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EUR/USD

H4 graph
The pair had passed the "R" resistance trend line (level 1.3480) and now it's being traded along an ascending trend with the target of growth to level 1.3750. The support is found at level 1.3455; intermediate resistance is at 1.3570. If the pair goes below level 1.3350, an ascending trend is supposed to be replaced by a descending one
Looks trading signals




Daily graph
An ascending trend having the target of growth to the resistance level 1.3750 had been developed at H4 graph. Upon reaching the stated level, there are 3 scenarios of events to follow:

1. If the pair rises above level 1.3800 (breaks the "Y" trend line), then target 1.4360 will be reached.

2. If the pair bounces off level 1.3750 ("Y" trend line), a "double top" turning figure will be formed having its basis at level 1.3112. Upon the bounce off 1.3750 the following is supposed to happen: "M" trend will get broken, figure's basis level and then the support at 1.3112 will be reached, after that the pair will bounce again and grow to level ~1.3650, then break the "Y" trend line and reach level 1.4360.

3. If after the bounce off 1.3750 and reaching the figure's basis at level 1.3112 the pair goes under this level, it will reach an intermediate support and then the main support at 1.2500 ("U" trend line) - the lower bound of the "triangle" figure from weekly graph




Weekly graph
 

STRATEGIST

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EUR/USD

H4 graph
The pair is consolidating under the “triangle” figure’s lower bound, being held up by resistance level 1.3080. After “triangle” got broken the market was supposed to rapidly make a leap down, but that didn’t happen – downtrend impulse faded owing to support 1.2898 (the maximum on 02/25/09). Taking this picture to account there are 2 variants of events to develop:

1. The pair rises above resistance 1.3080, which speaks in favor of finishing of the “triangle” model and of the downtrend. Next, upon breaking above level 1.3155 an uptrend will take effect, having the target at resistance level 1.3320 (the higher bound of the “triangle”). A correction to 1.3155 is likely to happen from that level, followed by retesting of level 1.3300. If after that the pair will successfully rise above 1.3350 – a “flag”, figure of trend’s continuation, will take effect and level 1.3570 will become the pair’s target.

2. The pair stays under 1.3080 and then goes below 1.2980 – in such case the pair will get to accumulation of supports between 1.2857–1.2776. In case the last mentioned support will be passed, the pair will head to 1.2525.




Daily graph

 

STRATEGIST

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EUR/USD

H4 graph
The pair is being traded along a downtrend having the lowering target set to levels 1.3550 and 1.3450. A slight correction takes place now, caused by the bounce off level 1.3800 (the neckline of “head and shoulders”). Levels 1.3953 and 1.4000 (gap level) are the resistances; the pair is supposed to turn from those levels soon. To gain a continuing down-trending impulse, the pair needs to get down below levels 1.3800 and 1.3700 again, what will lead to dropping to target levels 1.3550 and 1.3450. However, this lowering may be quite wavy, since the pair is moving along the 4th correctional wave (this is clearly seen on daily graph).





GBP/USD

H4 graph
Level 1.6240 ("H" trend line) has unleashed its force again making the pair go for a correction. But current trend is still a downtrend with the lowering target set to level 1.5900 (due to the fact that the pair is being traded below the lower bound of “B-B+” daily uptrend). The pair is supposed to find a resistance at level 1.6580 (crossing of “B” and “K” trend lines), but also it may start going down before getting to this level. Unlike the rest of main pairs, GBP has lesser down-trending impulse against dollar owing to the picture over EUR/GBP, where we can see a rapid dropping of that pair.
In order to reinforce the pair’s down-trending attitude, it needs to get under support 1.6240 (“H” trend line), and then under level 1.6100 (crossing of “Z” and “P” trend lines). After that the pair will get to 1.5900 (the lower bound of “C-C+” weekly uptrend).





GOLD

H4 graph
Gold is being traded below level 944 (below the neckline of “head and shoulders” trend-turning figure), what speaks in favor of getting to target level 903 in nearest future (within the “a-a+” uptrend). Resistance is found at level 944 once again.

 

STRATEGIST

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EUR/USD

H4 graph
The pair had bounced off level 1.4200 (“E” trend line) again, what lead to emerging of another massive selling wave (which was confident this time).

The pair went under level 1.4035 and broke the lower bound of “a-a+” 4-hours uptrend on its way down, setting the pair’s lowering target to support level 1.3850 (“neckline”) – right where we are now moving to.

A correction may then start from that support; and if so, it is supposed to be finished at resistance level 1.4000, from which the pair will go back to 1.3850. In case the pair drops below level
1.3820, it will clear the road to the lowering target at support level 1.3650 (“D” trend line).

Trend status: side trend in transition to downtrend
Current resistances: 1.4055
Supports: 1.3960, 1.3850






GBP/USD

H4 graph
Last week the pair attempted to update the maximum of 06/03/09 (level 1.6661), but failed. Having bounced the pair went under level 1.6530, what lead to development of a downtrend.

Now the pair is sitting on support 1.6300 formed by the lower bound of “E-E+” side trend and the lower bound of “C-C+” weekly uptrend.

We can’t say about confident continuation of downtrend until the pair drops below level 1.6240, opening the straight road down to support level 1.5900 (the lower bound of “W-W+” side trend).

A correction may then start from that level; and if so, it is supposed to be finished at resistance level 1.6240, from which the pair will go back to 1.5900. In case the pair drops below level 1.5855, the lowering target will be set to level 1.5500 (the lower bound of “D-D+” weekly uptrend).

Trend status: downtrend
Current resistances: 1.6400, 1.6490, 1.6550 (crucial)
Supports: 1.6300, 1.6200





USD/CHF

H4 graph
The pair’s trading continues within a side trend; however the analysis of other main pairs speaks in favor of emerging an impulse to develop an uptrend.

The pair got over level 1.0845 (broke the higher bound of “a-a+” H4 downtrend), what clears the road up to resistance 1.1145 (the higher bound of “C-C+ weekly downtrend).

Trend status: side trend in transition to uptrend
Current supports: 1.0830
Resistances: 1.0880, 1.0940, 1.1145





GOLD

H4 graph
Having bounced off levels 940–945 (which “neckline” and “K” trend line pass through) gold formed a “diamond” trend-continuing figure. Dropping below level 925 clears the road down to level 916. In its turn, dropping below level 916 clears the road down to crucial levels 888 and 877.

 
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