Forecasts by EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY, GOLD & dollar index

STRATEGIST

Private, 1st Class
Messages
3
EUR/USD

H4 graph
The pair keeps trading along a sideways trend (“O-O+”) between two key levels – 1.4390 (a very strong resistance) and 1.4215 (turning level). This trend is transforming into a “triangle” figure, which is being formed now and has its top at level 1.4425, where the 4th wave of this figure is supposed to emerge. Basically, we may consider the figure as such that will turn the sideways trend either upwards or downwards, so we should take the levels into consideration anyway.

There are two variants of events to proceed:
1. If the pair breaks above level 1.4425, the “triangle” figure may be treated as an uptrend-continuing figure. This way, the market sets the target of growth to level 1.4580. However, there is a very strong resistance on the way up – level 1.4500 (the higher boundary of “C-C+” sideways trend weekly). So, we may try to open buy positions above 1.4425, then it is necessary to close them right before approaching 1.4500 and buy additionally only upon break above ~1.4545.

2. The “triangle” figure is becoming the figure bearing a downtrend in case the pair breaks below level 1.4215 (gets below “B” and “O” trend lines); in such case the pair will get to essential support 1.4085 (“P” trend lines).
Personal prejudice:
I wouldn’t trade for buying while the pair is located above level 1.4545, since there are a whole lot of important resistances, which won’t let the market to pass them easily – the market is going to twitch. It is more secure to sell after drop below level 1.4215 with the target set to 1.4085.

 

MDunleavy

iticsoftware.com Representative
Messages
185
Gold's sharp rally sent it through 974.3 resistance as well as upper trend line resistance, suggesting recent triangle consolidation might be completed already. At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside for a test of 992.1/1007.7 resistance zone next. On the downside, below 974.8 will turn intraday outlook neutral and bring consolidation. But downside should be contained above e959.2 support and bring rally resumption.
In the bigger picture, the break of the upper trend line resistance suggests that triangle consolidation from 1007.7 might have completed already. Retest of 992.1/1007.7 resistance should be seen and break there will confirm and target 1033.9 high next. On the downside, below 931.3 support will argue that consolidation from 1007.7 is still in progress for another fall to 904.8 and below before completion.[oilngold]

P&F GOLD240 Box Size10X4 or(4.74%) HI/LO
Data 1005.9 - 681.4 ~ 12 Month ~ 358.5 Day
Database 1521 records 993.94 (Last Close)
2008-09-10 08~00
2009-09-03 20~00
(GMT+01:00) Paris

BJF Trading Group


1010.00~1OOO|____________________________________________________________|-0.41%|48.22%
1000.00~2OOO|__________________________________________x_________________|0.59%|46.76%
990.00|~3OOO|==========================================x=o=============x=|1.58%|45.29%
980.00|~4OOO|__________________________________________x_o_________x___x_|2.57%|43.82%
970.00|~5OOO|__________________________________________x_o_________x_o_x_|3.57%|42.35%
960.00|~6OOO|__________________________________________x_o_____x___x_o_x_|4.56%|40.89%
950.00|~7OOO|__________________________________________x_o_____x_o_x_o_x_|5.56%|39.42%
940.00|~8OOO|__________________________________________x_o_x___x_o_x_o_x_|6.55%|37.95%
930.00|~9OOO|______________x___________________________x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_|7.55%|36.48%
920.00|~1OOO|==========x===x=o=========================x=o=x=o=x=o=x=o=x=|8.54%|35.02%
910.00|~11OO|______x___x_o_x_o_________________________x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o___|9.53%|33.55%
900.00|~12OO|__x___x_o_x_o_x_o_________________________x_o___o_x_o_x_____|10.53%|32.08%
890.00|~13OO|__x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_________________________x_____o___o_x_____|11.52%|30.61%
880.00|~14OO|__x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_________________x___x___x_________o_x_____|12.52%|29.15%
870.00|~15OO|==x=o=x=o===o=x=o=x===============x=o=x=o=x=========o=======|13.51%|27.68%
860.00|~16OO|__x_o_x_____o_x_o_x_o_____________x_o_x_o_x_________________|14.5%|26.21%
850.00|~17OO|__x_o_x_____o_x_o_x_o_____________x_o_x_o_x_________________|15.5%|24.74%
840.00|~18OO|__x_o_x_____o_x_o_x_o_____________x_o_x_o_x_________________|16.49%|23.28%
830.00|~19OO|__x_o_______o_x_o___o_________x___x_o___o_x_________________|17.49%|21.81%
820.00|~2OOO|__x_________o_______o_________x_o_x_____o_x_________________|18.48%|20.34%
810.00|~21OO|==x=================o=========x=o=x=====o===================|19.48%|18.87%
800.00|~22OO|__x_________________o_________x_o_x_________________________|20.47%|17.41%
790.00|~23OO|__x_________________o_________x_o_x_________________________|21.46%|15.94%
780.00|~24OO|__x_________________o_________x_o_x_________________________|22.46%|14.47%
770.00|~25OO|o_x_________________o_x_______x_o_x_________________________|23.45%|13%
760.00|~26OO|o_x_________________o_x_o_x___x_o_x_________________________|24.45%|11.54%
750.00|~27OO|o=x=================o=x=o=x=o=x=o===========================|25.44%|10.07%
740.00|~28OO|o___________________o_x_o_x_o_x_____________________________|26.43%|8.6%
730.00|~29OO|____________________o_x_o_x_o_x_____________________________|27.43%|7.13%
720.00|~3OOO|____________________o_x_o___o_x_____________________________|28.42%|5.66%
710.00|~31OO|____________________o_x_____o_x_____________________________|29.42%|4.2%
700.00|~32OO|____________________o_x_____o_______________________________|30.41%|2.73%
690.00|~33OO|====================o=======================================|31.4%|1.26%
680.00|~34OO|____________________________________________________________|32.4%|-0.21%
Column|~35OO|4_167_8_4_5_1011104_188_5_4_6_138_135_5_7_19104_5_7_9_117_8_|
Count
 

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Last edited:

STRATEGIST

Private, 1st Class
Messages
3
H4 graph
The pair is still following the sideways trading pattern between key levels 1.4360 and 1.4175, and correction won’t be finished until one of those levels is passed.

Variants of events to proceed:
1. The pair retreats to support 1.4175 again, then drops below level 1.4135. In such case it will clear the road of lowering to level 1.3900 (the lower bound of “C-C+” sideways trend daily).
2. The pair rises above level 1.4360. In such case it will clear the road of growth to level 1.4500 (the higher bound of “C-C+” sideways trend daily).

 

STRATEGIST

Private, 1st Class
Messages
3
GBP/USD

H4 graph
The pair is trading under level 1.6335 (below the “C” trend line), which speaks in favor of dropping to level 1.5950. Some correction is developing now, which is supposed to be finished at 1.6335. I suggest selling from current levels with a stop set above 1.6385 and the target set to 1.5950.

Alternatively, in case the market rises above level 1.6385, a “double top” trend-turning figure will be formed and the pair will set its target of growth to level 1.6510 and over. And if it then will rise above 1.6510, it will get to a huge free upper area, which it will be able to pass easily. If it will go that way, the target will be set to level 1.6900.




Daily graph (09.06.09)
The pair rebounded from support level 1.6170 formed by the crossing of trend lines “H” (monthly trend line) and “D” (the lower bound of daily uptrend). This was followed by a drop below the lower bound of “C-C+” daily sideways trend with subsequent return to the channel. That fact speaks that there is a very strong support under the channel and now the pair will try to find a stronger resistance in order to test level 1.6170 again. But the pair may not find proper resistance since there are no strong resistances above level 1.6510, and by going above level 1.6510 the pair will break the “B-B+” daily downtrend, after which it is supposed to rise to level 1.6900. For the reasons above the pair either will turn from current levels for testing 1.6170, or it will eventually rise above level 1.6510.

Two variants of events to proceed are seen:
1. In case the pair rises above level 1.6510, it will get to resistance 1.6900 / 1.6950.
2. In case the pair drops below level 1.6070, it will get down to support 1.5480.





GOLD

H4 graph
The gold is consolidating at level 994 (the crossing of “Z” weekly trend line and “B+” – the higher bound of daily uptrend). This level is a key one and it determines further direction of the market for near future. As we can see, the higher bound of the “triangle” figure had been broken (level 977, “C+” trend line), which speaks in favor of the gold’s rising to the level of intermediate resistance 1024 (“K” weekly trend line). But it’s now worth excluding the variant of downtrend development followed by drop to level 974, and possibly even to 940.

That’s why there are two variants of events to proceed:
1. Since the higher bound of “triangle” was broken up, we’re moving towards level 1024. This scenario is confirmed if the gold manages to hold ground above 994 and doesn’t drop any lower than 974.
2. “Z” trend line shows a strong resistance and the gold retreats to support 974, if it drops below level 984. Such fact will weaken the hope for continuation of the uptrend and getting to level 1024. That’s why, if the market will then go under level 974, it will get to support 940.

 

STRATEGIST

Private, 1st Class
Messages
3
GBP/USD

H1 graph
The pair rebounded from resistance 1.6440 (the higher bound of “B2-B+” downtrend). During the rebound a “double top” trend-turning figure had been formed and executed, so the pair’s next drop target is now set to level 1.6310 – the lower bound of “Z-Z+” sideways trend. That sideways trend comprises another “double top” trend-turning figure itself, and the figure mentioned above is the right shoulder of this one. Generally speaking, a “diamond” figure is also seen within this large double top, but the “Z-Z+” has clearly outlined itself, so we should consider it primary. In case the pair drops below level 1.6290, the large figure will be executed and the next drop target will be set to level 1.6180. But first the pair needs to get under 1.6350 and keep itself from going above 1.6415, or else the whole trading plan is cancelled.

 

STRATEGIST

Private, 1st Class
Messages
3
EUR/USD

H4 graph
The pair is trading along the uptrend, which has a local growth target at level 1.4635 (“F” trend line). In case that level is passed, the next target level will be set to resistance 1.4719 (2008.12.18 high). It’s also worth reminding that after the pair rose above level 1.4550, it had broken the higher bound of an “up-trending triangle” figure, so the strategic target of the pair is now set to resistance level 1.4935.

If any correction happens, the pair is supposed to find the support at level 1.4515. Then the growth towards 1.4635 will be resumed. Otherwise, if the pair drops below level 1.4465, we can state the trend’s turn and the first local dropping target will be set to level 1.4355 (“E” trend line).





GBP/USD

H4 graph
The pair is trading along the uptrend, which has a growth target set to a rather distant level 1.6900. Although that level is far away there are no serious resistances on the way up, so reaching that level is completely real. In order to continue the uptrend the pair needs to get over resistance 1.6590, while the nearest support is found at level 1.6535. The next support is located at level 1.6400 – a strong key level. We can speak about changing of current uptrend to a downtrend only if the pair drops below level 1.6365, and in such case the dropping target will be set to level 1.6170.





GOLD

H4 graph
The gold is on the way up, and it is supposed to reach the local target – resistance level 1025 (“K” trend line, see weekly graph). After having a rest at the higher bound of broken “B-B+” daily uptrend, the gold started some consolidation (a figure of trend continuation is being formed). In case the gold rises above level 1004, the up-trending momentum will gain strength again. Support is found at level 990. Otherwise, if the market drops below level 986, it will get to support 974 (the higher bound of the “triangle” figure) and the correction will endure. But if the gold succeeds going under level 969, the uptrend will be lost and soon replaced with a downtrend, which will has the dropping target set to level 948.

 

MDunleavy

iticsoftware.com Representative
Messages
185
Gold Consolidates Beneath $1000/oz
Gold is balancing above 9/10 lows and June 2009 highs, yet remains below the psychological $1000/oz level. Gold appears to be taking its cue more from the performance of the EUR/USD and U.S. equities, which are trading the bottom of their near-term uptrend zones. However, rapid deteriorations of both the GBP/USD and USD/JPY are certainly causes for concern. Since the large pullbacks in the Dollar crosses are predominantly based on psychological factors, gold's correlation is favoring the more fundamentally-based performances of the EUR/USD and U.S. equities. Hence, gold has managed to stay within range of the $1000/oz level despite recent volatility in the FX market. As a result, gold's near-term performance will likely depend upon the results of key U.S. economic data this week. If global economic data continues to underperform gold may be forced to sacrifice 9/10 lows. That being said, we're a bit skeptical about upcoming data releases. Therefore, we believe gold has a downward inclination over the near-term.[oilngold]

"P&F GOLD60 Box Size40X3 or(1.24%) HI/LO
Data 1023.92 - 904.78 ~ 3 Month ~ 89.04 Day
Database 1501 records 992.24 (Last Close)
2009-07-01 18~00
2009-09-28 19~00
(GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group"

1024.0|~4OO||______________________________________|-0.01%|13.18%
1020.0|~8OO||______________________________x_o_____|0.38%|12.73%
1016.0|~12OO|______________________________x_o_x___|0.77%|12.29%
1012.0|~16OO|______________________________x_o_x_o_|1.16%|11.85%
1008.0|~2OOO|__________________________x___x_o_x_o_|1.55%|11.41%
1004.0|~24OO|______________________x___x_o_x_o_x_o_|1.95%|10.97%
1000.0|~28OO|______________________x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|2.34%|10.52%
996.00|~32OO|______________________x_o_x_o___o___o_|2.73%|10.08%
992.00|~36OO|______________________x_o_x_________o_|3.12%|9.64%
988.00|~4OOO|______________________x_o_x_________o_|3.51%|9.2%
984.00|~44OO|______________________x_o_____________|3.9%|8.76%
980.00|~48OO|______________________x_______________|4.29%|8.31%
976.00|~52OO|______________________x_______________|4.68%|7.87%
972.00|~56OO|______________________x_______________|5.07%|7.43%
968.00|~6OOO|______x_______________x_______________|5.46%|6.99%
964.00|~64OO|______x_o_____________x_______________|5.85%|6.55%
960.00|~68OO|______x_o_x_______x___x_______________|6.24%|6.1%
956.00|~72OO|__x___x_o_x_o_x___x_o_x_______________|6.63%|5.66%
952.00|~76OO|__x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_______________|7.02%|5.22%
948.00|~8OOO|__x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_________________|7.41%|4.78%
944.00|~84OO|__x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x___________________|7.81%|4.33%
940.00|~88OO|o_x_o_x_o___o_x_o_____________________|8.2%|3.89%
936.00|~92OO|o_x_o_x_____o_x_______________________|8.59%|3.45%
932.00|~96OO|o_x_o_x_____o_________________________|8.98%|3.01%
928.00|~1OOO|o_x_o_________________________________|9.37%|2.57%
924.00|~1O4O|o_x___________________________________|9.76%|2.12%
920.00|~1O8O|o_x___________________________________|10.15%|1.68%
916.00|~112O|o_x___________________________________|10.54%|1.24%
912.00|~116O|o_x___________________________________|10.93%|0.8%
908.00|~12OO|o_____________________________________|11.32%|0.36%
904.00|~124O|______________________________________|11.71%|-0.09%
Column|~128O|9_12710_7_5_7_6_4_5_3_145_6_3_6_7_5_7_|
Count




Large Image -http://iticsoftware.com/postimages/2009-Aug-03/GOLD280909.PNG
 
Last edited:

MDunleavy

iticsoftware.com Representative
Messages
185
Gold broke prior high of 1033.9 last week and made new record high of 1062.7 before retreating mildly. With 4 hours MACD staying below signal line, initial bias is neutral and some retreat might be seen first. Nevertheless, downside is expected to be contained well above 1011.0 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption. Above 1062.7 will target 100% projection of 931.3 to 1025.8 from 952.5 at 1080 next.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of 1033.9 high confirms that long term up trend in Gold has resumed. Rise from 681 would likely develop into another set of five wave sequence with first wave completed at 1007.7, second wave triangle consolidation completed at 931.3. Rise from 931.3 is expected to extend to 61.8% projection of 681 to 1007.7 from 931.3 at 1133.2 first and then 100% projection at 1258 next. On the downside, though, break of 984.4 support will dampen this bullish view and will turn focus back to 931.3 support instead.

In the long term picture, as discussed before, rise form 681 is treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 1999 low of 253 after interim consolidation from 1033.9 has completed in form of an expanding triangle. The strong break of 1033.9 resistance affirms this case and should pave the way to 61.8% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1160 and then 100% projection at 1460 level. We'll maintain this bullish view as long as 931.3 support holds.
[oilngold.com]
 

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MDunleavy

iticsoftware.com Representative
Messages
185
Gold

After reaching our first defined technical target at 1049.00, the metal corrected slightly, preparing for a new descending wave that's forming the internal second wave of the suggested [c] wave for the entire formation that should consist of 5 waves as shown on the four-hour chart. Hence the intraday outlook is bearish, supported by Friday's negative closing -secondary image- and the obvious negative sign appearing on AROON indicator. [oilngold]

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1016.00 and key resistance now at 1100.00.

The general trend is to the upside as far as 865.00 remains intact with targets at 1129.00.

"P&F GOLD1 Box Size 60X3 or(0.17%) HI/LO
Data 1067.24 - 1050.17 ~ 0 Month ~ 3.49 Day
Database 2021 records 1054.63 (Last Close)
2009-10-22 22~00
2009-10-26 09~42
(GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group"

1067.40|~6O|||____________________________________|-0.01%|1.64%
1066.80|~12O||____________X_______________________|0.04%|1.58%
1066.20|~18O||____________Xo______________________|0.1%|1.53%
1065.60|~24O||============Xo======================|0.15%|1.47%
1065.00|~3OO||____________Xo______________________|0.21%|1.41%
1064.40|~36O||____________Xo______________________|0.27%|1.36%
1063.80|~42O||____X_______Xo______________________|0.32%|1.3%
1063.20|~48O||____Xo______Xo______________________|0.38%|1.24%
1062.60|~54O||__X_Xo______Xo______________________|0.43%|1.18%
1062.00|~6OO||__XoXo____X_Xo______________________|0.49%|1.13%
1061.40|~66O||__XoXo____XoXo______________________|0.55%|1.07%
1060.80|~72O||X_XoXo____XoXoX_X___________________|0.6%|1.01%
1060.20|~78O||_oXoXo____XoXoXoXoX_________________|0.66%|0.96%
1059.60|~84O||_oXo_oX_X_Xo_oXoXoXo________________|0.72%|0.9%
1059.00|~9OO||_oX__oXoXoX__oXo_oXo________________|0.77%|0.84%
1058.40|~96O||_o___oXoXoX__oX__oXoX_______________|0.83%|0.78%
1057.80|~1O2O|_____oXo_o___oX__oXoXo______________|0.88%|0.73%
1057.20|~1O8O|_____o_______oX__oXoXoX_____________|0.94%|0.67%
1056.60|~114O|=============o===oXo=oXo======X=X=X=|1%|0.61%
1056.00|~12OO|_________________oX__oXoX_X_X_XoXoXo|1.05%|0.56%
1055.40|~126O|_________________oX__oXoXoXoXoXoXoXo|1.11%|0.5%
1054.80|~132O|_________________oX__oXoXoXoXoXo_oXo|1.17%|0.44%
1054.20|~138O|_________________oX__o_o_oXoXoX__oX_|1.22%|0.38%
1053.60|~144O|_________________oX______oXoXoX__oX_|1.28%|0.33%
1053.00|~15OO|_________________oX______o_o_oX__o__|1.33%|0.27%
1052.40|~156O|_________________oX__________oX_____|1.39%|0.21%
1051.80|~162O|_________________oX__________o______|1.45%|0.16%
1051.20|~168O|_________________oX_________________|1.5%|0.1%
1050.60|~174O|=================o==================|1.56%|0.04%
1050.00|~18OO|____________________________________|1.62%|-0.02%
Column|~186O||147571433374117331163755355557833663|
Count|~192O|||_____1______27___76_________________|


 

Attachments

Eric Alyea

Master Sergeant
Messages
364
Hei Ho in Japanese

Hei Ho in Japanese
means:
STRATEGIST
You have earned you ticket to the commercial zone.
I like your graphs and education.

Ishi Kawa

:D
 
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