Forecasts by EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY, GOLD & dollar index

EUR/USD forecast

H4 graph
The pair is following a sideways trading pattern, partially leaving the “B-B+” daily downtrend. A potential of uptrend development emerged after the Friday payrolls release followed by getting to level 1.3620. The target of that potential uptrend would be found at level 1.3800. We may try to buy from 1.3820 with the target at 1.3800 and stop loss below 1.3560.

1267994435_eu-h4.gif



Daily graph
The pair is trading along the “F-F+” downtrend, however after the Friday payrolls release there appeared signs of an upside towards level 1.3805, which is the 4th (Elliot’s) wave. Upon getting to that level, the 5th down-trending wave is supposed to develop having the target at level 1.2870..

1267994366_eu-d1.gif




GBP/USD

H4 graph
The pair rose above level 1.5130, which implies breaking of the “B-B+” downtrend. For this reason, in case the pair rises above level 1.5230, we should expect it to reach level 1.5410 (the 4th wave). We may try buying above 1.5130 with the target at 1.5410 and stop loss below 1.5090.

1267994374_gu-h4.gif



Daily graph
After rising above level 1.5130 the pair got a possibility to leave the “B-B+” downtrend. In case it will get over level 1.5230, the pair will reach its target level 1.5410 (the 4th Elliot wave, a correction wave). Upon the fact of reaching that level I expect a downtrend to develop having the drop target set at level 1.4350 (the 5th wave).

Alternatively, if wave picture fails and in case the pair rises above level 1.5550, then upon the fact of leaving the “F-F+” weekly downtrend the pair will get to level 1.6000 - the higher bound of the green downtrend.

1267994403_gu-d1.gif
 
The dollar index moved into long mode in early December and found buying support and momentum as equity markets lost direction.
Also in effective terms the dollar has lost momentum, as witnessed by the correction lower in the DXY index from its mid-February 81.342 high. As a result, speculative long USD positions have been trimmed.

"P&F _DY1440 Box Size 70X4 or(3.42%) CLOSE
Data 92.33 - 71.36 ~ 75 Month ~ 2285 Day
Database 1614 records 80.56 (Last Close)
2003-11-17 00~00
2010-02-18 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group chart"

91.70|~7O|||____X_______X______________________|0.68%|28.5%
91.00|~14O||X___Xo______Xo_____________________|1.44%|27.52%
90.30|~21O||Xo__Xo____X_XoX____________________|2.2%|26.54%
89.60|~28O||_o__XoX___XoXoXo___________________|2.96%|25.56%
88.90|~35O||_o__XoXo__XoXoXo______________X____|3.71%|24.58%
88.20|~42O||_o__XoXo__XoXoXo______________Xo___|4.47%|23.6%
87.50|~49O||_oX_XoXo__XoXo_o____________X_Xo___|5.23%|22.62%
86.80|~56O||_oXoXo_o__XoX__oX_X_______X_XoXo___|5.99%|21.64%
86.10|~63O||_oXoX__o__Xo___oXoXo______XoXoXoX__|6.75%|20.66%
85.40|~7OO||_oXoX__o__X____oXoXo______XoXoXoXo_|7.51%|19.67%
84.70|~77O||_o_o___oX_X____oXoXoX_____XoXoXoXo_|8.26%|18.69%
84.00|~84O||_______oXoX____oXo_oXo____Xo_oXoXo_|9.02%|17.71%
83.30|~91O||_______oXoX____o___oXo____X__oXoXo_|9.78%|16.73%
82.60|~98O||_______oXoX________oXo____X__oXo_o_|10.54%|15.75%
81.90|~1O5O|_______oXoX________o_o____X__oX__o_|11.3%|14.77%
81.20|~112O|_______oXo___________o____X__oX__o_|12.05%|13.79%
80.50|~119O|=======o=============o====X==oX==oX|12.81%|12.81%
79.80|~126O|_____________________o__X_X__oX__oX|13.57%|11.83%
79.10|~133O|_____________________o__XoX__oX__oX|14.33%|10.85%
78.40|~14OO|_____________________o__XoX__o___oX|15.09%|9.87%
77.70|~147O|_____________________oX_XoX______oX|15.85%|8.88%
77.00|~154O|_____________________oXoXoX______oX|16.6%|7.9%
76.30|~161O|_____________________oXoXoX______oX|17.36%|6.92%
75.60|~168O|_____________________oXoXo_______oX|18.12%|5.94%
74.90|~175O|_____________________oXoX________oX|18.88%|4.96%
74.20|~182O|_____________________o_oX________o_|19.64%|3.98%
73.50|~189O|_______________________oX__________|20.39%|3%
72.80|~196O|_______________________oX__________|21.15%|2.02%
72.10|~2O3O|_______________________oX__________|21.91%|1.04%
71.40|~21OO|_______________________oX__________|22.67%|0.06%
70.70|~217O|_______________________o___________|23.43%|-0.92%
Column||||||29441741651686415447415116145119519|
Count|||||||____O__3__3____O_____5_O3_6__35__7_|




BJF-Trading-Group_Excel_Chart
 
Dollar index's strong break of 81.34 resistance confirms that whole medium term rise from 74.19 has resumed and should now be targeting 61.8% projection of 76.60 to 81.34 from 79.51 at 82.43 next. Meanwhile, in case of retreat, dollar index should be contained by 80.55 support and bring rally resumption.

"P&F _DY1440 Box Size1 250X3 or(4.17%) CLOSE
Data 108.69 - 71.36 ~ 93 Month ~ 2834 Day
Database 2000 records 81.85 (Last Close)
2002-06-21 00~00
2010-03-25 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group chart"

108.75|~125|______________________________|-0.06%|52.4%
107.50|~25O|_X_X__________________________|1.09%|50.64%
106.25|~375|oXoXo_________________________|2.24%|48.89%
105.00|~5OO|o_oXo_________________________|3.39%|47.14%
103.75|~625|__o_o_________________________|4.55%|45.39%
102.50|~75O|____o_________________________|5.7%|43.64%
101.25|~875|____oX________________________|6.85%|41.89%
100.0|~1OOO|____oXo_______________________|8%|40.13%
98.75|~1125|____oXoX______________________|9.15%|38.38%
97.50|~125O|____o_oXo_____________________|10.3%|36.63%
96.25|~1375|______oXo_____________________|11.45%|34.88%
95.00|~15OO|______oXo_____________________|12.6%|33.13%
93.75|~1625|______oXo_____________________|13.75%|31.38%
92.50|~175O|______oXo_____________________|14.9%|29.62%
91.25|~1875|______o_oX_____X______________|16.05%|27.87%
90.00|~2OOO|________oXo__X_Xo_____________|17.2%|26.12%
88.75|~2125|========oXo==XoXo========X====|18.35%|24.37%
87.50|~225O|________oXo__XoXo______X_Xo___|19.5%|22.62%
86.25|~2375|________oXo__Xo_o______XoXoX__|20.65%|20.87%
85.00|~25OO|________oXoX_X__oX_____XoXoXo_|21.8%|19.11%
83.75|~2625|________o_oXoX__oXo____XoXoXo_|22.95%|17.36%
82.50|~275O|__________oXoX__oXo____XoXo_o_|24.1%|15.61%
81.25|~2875|==========oXo===o=o====XoX==oX|25.25%|13.86%
80.00|~3OOO|__________o_______o__X_XoX__oX|26.4%|12.11%
78.75|~3125|__________________o__XoXo___oX|27.55%|10.36%
77.50|~325O|__________________oX_XoX____oX|28.7%|8.6%
76.25|~3375|__________________oXoXoX____oX|29.85%|6.85%
75.00|~35OO|__________________oXoXo_____oX|31%|5.1%
73.75|~3625|==================o=oX======o=|32.15%|3.35%
72.50|~375O|____________________oX________|33.3%|1.6%
71.25|~3875|____________________o_________|34.45%|-0.15%
Column||||||223383861694373483935741785316|
Count|||||||________2______________O____O_|




BJF-Trading-Group_Excel_Chart
 
Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the upside for the moment. Rise from 1.4798 is treated as the third leg of consolidation pattern that started at 1.4783 and is possibly targeting 1.5381 resistance. Nevertheless, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.6456 to 1.4783 at 1.5422 to conclude the consolidation and bring down trend resumption. On the downside, below 1.5118 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside. Decisive break of 1.4783 low will confirm that whole decline from 1.6456 has resumed and should target 200% projection of 1.6875 to 1.5829 from 1.6456 at 1.4364.

In the bigger picture, there is no change in our bearish view. That is, medium term rebound from 1.3503, which is treated as a correction to down trend from 2.1161, has completed at 1.7043 already. Fall from there is tentatively treated as resumption of the down trend from 2.1161 and should target a new low below 1.3503. On the upside, break of 1.5814 resistance is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.[Written by Action Forex ]

"P&F GBPUSD1440 Box Size 250X3 or(4.33%) HI/LO
Data 2.1161 - 1.3502 ~ 92 Month ~ 2797 Day
Database 2000 records 1.51921 (Last Close)
2002-08-05 00~00
2010-04-02 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group chart"

2.1250|~25O||_____________________________________|-0.42%|57.38%
2.1000|~5OO||_________________X___________________|0.76%|55.53%
2.0750|~75O||_________________Xo__________________|1.94%|53.68%
2.0500|~1OOO|_______________X_Xo__________________|3.12%|51.83%
2.0250|~125O|_______________XoXoX_________________|4.31%|49.98%
2.0000|~15OO|_______________XoXoXo________________|5.49%|48.13%
1.9750|~175O|_______________Xo_oXo________________|6.67%|46.27%
1.9500|~2OOO|_________X_____X__o_o________________|7.85%|44.42%
1.9250|~225O|_________Xo____X____o________________|9.03%|42.57%
1.9000|~25OO|_____X___Xo__X_X____o________________|10.21%|40.72%
1.8750|~275O|_____XoX_Xo__XoX____o________________|11.39%|38.87%
1.8500|~3OOO|_____XoXoXo__XoX____oX_______________|12.58%|37.02%
1.8250|~325O|_____XoXoXoX_Xo_____oXo______________|13.76%|35.17%
1.8000|~35OO|_____XoXoXoXoX______oXo______________|14.94%|33.31%
1.7750|~375O|_____XoXo_oXoX______oXo______________|16.12%|31.46%
1.7500|~4OOO|_____Xo___o_oX______o_o______________|17.3%|29.61%
1.7250|~425O|_____X______o_________o______________|18.48%|27.76%
1.7000|~45OO|_____X________________o__________X___|19.66%|25.91%
1.6750|~475O|___X_X________________o__________XoX_|20.84%|24.06%
1.6500|~5OOO|_X_XoX________________oX_________XoXo|22.03%|22.2%
1.6250|~525O|_XoXoX________________oXo________XoXo|23.21%|20.35%
1.6000|~55OO|_XoXoX________________oXo________XoXo|24.39%|18.5%
1.5750|~575O|oXoXo_________________oXo________Xo_o|25.57%|16.65%
1.5500|~6OOO|oXo___________________o_oX_X_____X__o|26.75%|14.8%
1.5250|~625O|o_______________________oXoXoX___X__o|27.93%|12.95%
1.5000|~65OO|________________________oXoXoXo__X__o|29.11%|11.09%
1.4750|~675O|________________________o_oXoXoX_X___|30.3%|9.24%
1.4500|~7OOO|__________________________o_o_oXoX___|31.48%|7.39%
1.4250|~725O|______________________________oXoX___|32.66%|5.54%
1.4000|~75OO|______________________________oXoX___|33.84%|3.69%
1.3750|~775O|______________________________o_o____|35.02%|1.84%
1.3500|~8OOO|_____________________________________|36.2%|-0.01%
Column|||||||3545416547834739356314147344436441547|
Count||||||||_____3______________1_2__________3___|




BJF-Trading-Group_Excel_Chart
 
Strategy : Stand aside.
Despite intra-day brief bounce to 1.0763, as dollar quickly retreated from there on the back of euro’s strength, suggesting downside risk remains for retracement of recent rise from 1.0435 and current breach of the Kijun-Sen also adds credence to this view, then weakness to 1.0652 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0435 to 1.0786) and possibly towards 1.0611 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0435 to 1.0786) would be seen, however, reckon support at 1.0576-84 would limit downside today.
Only above said intra-day resistance at 1.0763 would revive our bullishness for test of 1.0786, then 1.0810, break of latter level would signal upmove from 0.9910 has resumed for retest of 1.0899 top next week.


"P&F USDCHF1440 Box Size 175X3 or(4.21%) HI/LO
Data 1.5311 - 0.9634 ~ 92 Month ~ 2800 Day
Database 2000 records 1.06561 (Last Close)
2002-08-09 00~00
2010-04-09 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group chart"

1.5400|~175||________________________________________|-0.58%|59.85%
1.5225|~35O||_X_X____________________________________|0.56%|58.03%
1.5050|~525||_XoXo___________________________________|1.7%|56.22%
1.4875|~7OO||o_oXo___________________________________|2.85%|54.4%
1.4700|~875||o_o_o___________________________________|3.99%|52.58%
1.4525|~1O5O|____o___________________________________|5.13%|50.77%
1.4350|~1225|____o___________________________________|6.28%|48.95%
1.4175|~14OO|____o__X________________________________|7.42%|47.14%
1.4000|~1575|____oX_Xo_______________________________|8.56%|45.32%
1.3825|~175O|____oXoXo_______________________________|9.71%|43.5%
1.3650|~1925|____oXoXoX______________________________|10.85%|41.69%
1.3475|~21OO|____oXoXoXo_____________________________|11.99%|39.87%
1.3300|~2275|____o_oXoXo_____________________________|13.13%|38.05%
1.3125|~245O|______oXo_oX_______X_X__________________|14.28%|36.24%
1.2950|~2625|______o___oXo____X_XoXo_________________|15.42%|34.42%
1.2775|~28OO|__________oXoX___XoXoXo_________________|16.56%|32.6%
1.2600|~2975|__________oXoXo__XoXo_oX________________|17.71%|30.79%
1.2425|~315O|__________oXoXo__XoX__oXoX______________|18.85%|28.97%
1.2250|~3325|__________o_o_oX_Xo___oXoXo____X________|19.99%|27.15%
1.2075|~35OO|______________oXoX____o_oXo____Xo_______|21.14%|25.34%
1.1900|~3675|______________oXoX______o_o____Xo__X____|22.28%|23.52%
1.1725|~385O|==============oXoX========o====Xo==XoX==|23.42%|21.7%
1.1550|~4O25|______________oXo_________oX___Xo__XoXo_|24.56%|19.89%
1.1375|~42OO|______________o___________oXoX_Xo__XoXo_|25.71%|18.07%
1.1200|~4375|__________________________oXoXoXo__Xo_o_|26.85%|16.25%
1.1025|~455O|__________________________o_oXoXoX_X__o_|27.99%|14.44%
1.0850|~4725|============================oXo=oXoX==oX|29.14%|12.62%
1.0675|~49OO|____________________________oX__oXoX__oX|30.28%|10.81%
1.0500|~5O75|____________________________oX__o_o___oX|31.42%|8.99%
1.0325|~525O|____________________________oX________oX|32.56%|7.17%
1.0150|~5425|____________________________oX________oX|33.71%|5.36%
0.9975|~56OO|============================oX========o=|34.85%|3.54%
0.9800|~5775|____________________________o___________|35.99%|1.72%
0.9625|~595O|________________________________________|37.14%|-0.09%
Column|||||||2233146763855385484533634383193813384315|
Count||||||||____1_______________________O___O_____O_|
 

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Last edited:
Commodity were hit hard with crude oil down to close at 83.24 while gold closed at 1136.9. Dollar managed to recover earlier losses against major currencies. While the sharp reversal in dollar pairs and yen crosses worth mentioning, it must be noted that the moves were not enough to confirm reversal in recent decline in the neither currencies yet. For example, the dollar index, which closed the week at 80.77, is still way off recent high of 82.24. Follow through selling in stocks and commodities is needed to push dollar and yen through near term resistance to confirm reversal.

"P&F _DY1440 Box Size1 30X2 or(2.89%) HI/LO
Data 109.24 - 70.7 ~ 93 Month ~ 2832 Day
Database 2000 records 80.77 (Last Close)
2002-07-15 00~00
2010-04-16 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group chart"
_http://docs.google.com/View?id=dcftkq53_137ckfzs8f6
 

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Last edited:
Trade Idea: USDCHF - Sell at 1.1120 Target: 1.0920, Stop: 1.1200
===============================================
The pair is still fluctuating around pivotal resistance 1.1120; whereas the bullish technical pattern is still intact and awaits a start signal that will be achieve through building a base above 1.1120. MA 50 is supporting the pair to move to the upside, therefore we expect a bullish intraday trend that targets 1.1250 – 1.1290 and requires the four hour close above 1.1050.

"P&F USDCHF1440 Box Size 200X3 or(4.83%) HI/LO
Data 1.5176 - 0.9644 ~ 92 Month ~ 2787 Day
Database 2001 records 1.1172 (Last Close)
2002-09-26 00~00
2010-05-14 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group chart"
_http://docs.google.com/View?id=dcftkq53_152grsnq5c3

1.5200|~2OO||____________________________________________________|-0.16%|57.61%
1.5000|~4OO||o___________________________________________________|1.16%|55.54%
1.4800|~6OO||o___________________________________________________|2.48%|53.46%
1.4600|~8OO||o___________________________________________________|3.8%|51.39%
1.4400|~1OOO|o_____+_____________________________________________|5.11%|49.32%
1.4200|~12OO|o_____x_+___________________________________________|6.43%|47.24%
1.4000|~14OO|o_x___x_o_+_________________________________________|7.75%|45.17%
1.3800|~16OO|o_x_o_x_o_x_+_______________________________________|9.07%|43.09%
1.3600|~18OO|o_x_o_x_o_x_o_+_____________________________________|10.38%|41.02%
1.3400|~2OOO|o___o_x_o_x_o___+_____________+_____________________|11.7%|38.95%
1.3200|~22OO|____o_x_o___o_x___+_______x___x_+___________________|13.02%|36.87%
1.3000|~24OO|____o_x_____o_x_o___+_x___x_o_x_o_+_________________|14.34%|34.8%
1.2800|~26OO|____o_______o_x_o_____x_o_x_o_x_o___+_______________|15.66%|32.73%
1.2600|~28OO|____________o_x_o_____x_o_x_o_+_o_x___+_____________|16.97%|30.65%
1.2400|~3OOO|____________o_x_o_____x_o___+___o_x_o___+___________|18.29%|28.58%
1.2200|~32OO|____________o___o_x___x___+_____o_x_o_____x_________|19.61%|26.5%
1.2000|~34OO|________________o_x_o_x_+_______o___o_____x_o_______|20.93%|24.43%
1.1800|~36OO|________________o_x_o_x_____________o_____x_o_x_____|22.25%|22.36%
1.1600|~38OO|________________o_x_o_______________o_____x_o_x_o___|23.56%|20.28%
1.1400|~4OOO|________________o_+_________________o_x___x_o_x_o_+_|24.88%|18.21%
1.1200|~42OO|________________+___________________o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_|26.2%|16.13%
1.1000|~44OO|____________________________________o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_|27.52%|14.06%
1.0800|~46OO|____________________________________o_x_o___o_x_o_x_|28.84%|11.99%
1.0600|~48OO|____________________________________o_x_____o_x_o_x_|30.15%|9.91%
1.0400|~5OOO|____________________________________o_x_____o___o_x_|31.47%|7.84%
1.0200|~52OO|____________________________________o_x_________o_x_|32.79%|5.77%
1.0000|~54OO|____________________________________o_x_________o_+_|34.11%|3.69%
0.9800|~56OO|____________________________________o___________+___|35.42%|1.62%
0.9600|~58OO|____________________________________________________|36.74%|-0.46%
Column|||||||9_3_6_7_5_3_8_5_9_4_3_7_3_4_3_3_6_3_1_8_3_7_9_7_9_6_|
Count||||||||____________________________________4_______________|


BJF-Trading-Group-UsdChf_0513_%282%29.PNG
 

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US Dollar Index (DXY)
The US Dollar Index is retracing to test short-term support at 85 after breaking out of its
trend channel. Failure would signal the end of the rally and a test of the lower trend channel.
Upward breakout remains as likely, however, and would offer a short-term target of 90.00

"P&F _DXY1440 Box Size 120X3 or(4%) HI/LO
Data 109.24 - 70.7 ~ 94 Month ~ 2834 Day
Database 2000 records 86.49 (Last Close)
2002-08-30 00~00
2010-06-03 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"



BJF-Trading-Group_Excel_Chart
 
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