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Forex Analysis (Wed February 23 2011, 4:30am NY Time EST) - UK MPC Meeting Minutes

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Henry Liu, Feb 22, 2011.

  1. Henry Liu

    Henry Liu Former FPA Special Consultant

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    MPC Meeting Minutes is scheduled to be released today and since it is customary for BOE (Bank of England) not to release a statement along with its interest rate decision (2 weeks ago) if there were no changes in either rate decision or APF (Asset Purchasing Facility, UK’s quantitative easing program), today will be the first time for a glimpse into what took place during this meeting, here is the forecast:

    4:30am NY Time UK MPC Meeting Minutes Forecast 2-0-7 Previous 2-0-7
    ACTION: GBP/USD BUY (4 Vote For Hike) / SELL (2 Vote For QE)


    The Trade Plan
    We will be looking at the vote count today. If we get 4 votes for hiking 25 basis points, we should see some strengthening in the Sterling and a BUY GBP/USD trade should be justified. If we get 2 votes for quantitative easing, or to increase the current APF from 200 Billion Pound, GBP should weaken and a SELL GBP/USD trade should be justified.

    Due to the nature of this release, you need to have a newswire or audio service in order to trade it. We should see a steady market reaction after the release and possible carry over to the NY Session.

    I'll be looking for an after news retracement trade. For more information, please read:
    Henry's News Trading Methods.

    The Market
    Once again, MPC or Monetary Policy Committee, from Bank of England (BOE) will be releasing their meeting minutes on the Rate Decision meeting along with the actual vote count over the rate decision and the Asset Purchasing Facility program. If you recall, MPC once again left both intereste rate and APF unchanged, and there were no statement issued whatsoever.

    With the yearly CPI figure at 4.0% level, market speculation for further quantitative easing has diminished, as many traders are now speculating that aside from Sentence and Weale, there may be one or two more members inclined for a sooner than later rate hike...

    Additional Thoughts
    Since the statement from BOE Weale on Monday, speculation of a change of his vote has diminished... We may see one or two more officials voting for rate hike, which may be very positive for the GBP.

    Pre-news Consideration
    No Pre-news trading today.

    Here is the historical data & chart for UK MPC Meeting Minutes

    Thanks,


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    #1 Henry Liu, Feb 22, 2011
    Lasted edited by : Sep 8, 2016

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