Forex.ee: Daily economic news digest from Forex.ee

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Daily economic digest from Forex.ee​

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Friday, June 1st

The EUR/USD pair remains pretty much directionless so far this session, keeping its positions just below the level of 1.1700. It seems that the common currency ignores bullish dynamics of the US dollar, thereby protecting the pair from any significant losses. Moreover, lack of further news from Italy has cooled off markets’ concerns over the formation of a coalition between populist parties, which in turn positively affects the common currency this Friday. On the other hand, re-ignited fears of a global trade war, following US President’s announcement that the US would impose tariffs on steel and aluminum, is limiting any further gains of the pair. As for the data, today we will have busy trading session ahead, featuring manufacturing data from the US and Germany, and the US non-farm payrolls, which will be able to determine pair’s further direction on Friday.

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Tuesday, June 5th

The EUR/USD pair is trading with a mild bearish bias this Tuesday, failing to consolidate its positions above the level of 1.1700. Renewed weakness of the pair could be mainly explained by attempts of the US dollar to recover its positions after recent downside correction. Moreover, it seems that the dust around political situation in Italy has settled down, so the US dollar dynamics will continue to play a role of the key driver for the pair this Tuesday. As for the data, today the EZ data calendar will offer us bloc of local PMIs as well as overall EU PMI report, however, it is expected that these reports won’t provoke any notable reaction across the market. Meanwhile, the US will offer today the US ISM services PMI and JOLTs jobs report, which will be able to form pair’s near-term trajectory during the NA session.

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Wednesday, June 6th

The EUR/USD pair is trading on a positive note so far this week, having reached its 2-week highs on the level of 1.1766. Recent positive rally of the pair can be mainly explained by recent market talks that the ECB can discuss the exit of its QE program on the next meeting, which will take place next week. Nevertheless, chances that the EU regulator will reduce the economy stimulation are pretty low, as latest EZ economic data didn’t show any positive dynamics, therefore most likely the ECB will keep its monetary policy accommodative. As for today, further dynamics of the pair will likely remain bullish, however, no aggressive movements are expected, as concerns regarding political situation in Italy are still weighing the common currency. On Wednesday, the economic calendar won’t offer anything important to investors, so the pair will continue to follow broad market trend during today session.

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Thursday, June 7th

The EUR/USD pair extends its bullish rally, having broken through the level of 1.1900 in early Europe, on the back of several bullish factors, which are setting the direction for the pair this Thursday. The pair continues advancing northward, having left behind its multi-year lows, marked in the vicinity of 1.1500 last week. One of the main drivers for the pair remains widespread talks that the ECB will likely discuss the timetable for ending its stimulation program on the next meeting. In addition, ongoing retreat of the US dollar also contributes to a sharp correction of the pair. In the day ahead, both economic calendars won’t offer us anything important, leaving again the pair at the mercy of widespread sentiment during today’s trades.

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Friday, June 8th

The EUR/USD pair stalled its bullish trends after four consecutive sessions at a profit. Yesterday, the pair managed to refresh its 3-week highs on the level of 1.1840 on the back of widespread speculations that the ECB can discuss tapering of its QE program next week. So now we can say that the ECB meeting, which will be held next Thursday, has significantly increased in importance. However, today’s retreat can be attributed to correction of the pair after its notable growth and to attempts of the US dollar to regain its positions across the market. Meanwhile, the next important event for the pair remains G7 meeting, as investors expect that participants of the summit will discuss the ongoing trade conflicts. Moreover, French President Emmanuel Macron has already managed to speak out against the US protectionism policy and metal tariffs in particular. Besides the important G7 meeting, nothing else is scheduled in the event calendar for this Friday, so any developments regarding a potential trade war will remain in center stage.

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Tuesday, June 12th

The EUR/USD pair remains positive today, reaching the area of 1.1800. However, further growth of the pair remains capped on the back of bullish dynamics of the US dollar, following historic US-N. Korea summit. Today in Singapore took place much-awaited one-on-one meeting of Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un, where leaders signed a document, the content of which will be released later. Moreover, both leaders remained satisfied with the outcome of the meeting, while Mr. Kim Jong-un stressed that there would be challenges ahead but he would work with Mr. Trump, and he believes that this is a good prelude for peace. On the other hand, it is expected that the pair won’t show any sharp movements during today’s trades, as we are heading towards the Fed and ECB meetings, scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday respectively. Both meetings will remain in the spotlight, as investors expected the Fed to increase its interest rate and the ECB to discuss the tapering of the QE program. But for today we have German and EU ZEW economic surveys and US inflation data, which will be able to form pair’s near-term trajectory.

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Wednesday, June 13th

The EUR/USD pair remains flat this Wednesday, trading in the region of 1.1735-55 in anticipation of key events. Yesterday the pair came under notable bearish pressure on the back of series of weak ZEW economic surveys and upbeat US inflation figures. However, the pair managed to recover some pips after yesterday’s retreat and consolidate its positions within recent range amid broad cautiousness ahead of FOMC and ECB meetings, which will be able to bring divergence between regulators’ policies back into the play. For the most of the market today’s Fed rate hike remains a done deal, so investors will pay attention to the Fed's forward guidance, especially taking into account recent series of strong US macro data. Today the EU data calendar won’t offer us anything relevant, so investors will focus their attention on the key event of this Wednesday – the FOMC meeting, which will be able to spark some volatility across the market during the NA session.

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Thursday, June 14th

The EUR/USD pair is following widespread sentiment this Thursday, having spiked the level of 1.1800 in early Europe. Today the weakness of the US dollar remains the key driving factor across the market on the back not enough hawkish FOMC meeting. Yesterday, as it was widely expected the Fed raised its interest up to 2%. Moreover, the regular indicated two more rate hikes this year with a total of 4 rate hikes in 2018 instead of 3 and revised to upside its economic projections for this year. However, the regulator didn’t make any adjustments to the neutral level of interest rate, so the rate will reach its neutral level by the end of 2019. The market negatively reacted on this news, as it means that the Fed will only accelerate the policy tightening cycle, but not expand it. Another reason of dollar retreat can be called its overbought condition, as Fed hawkish decision was fully priced-in and investors locked in some profits after the meeting, sending the greenback lower. But for now all investors’ eye remain glued to the ECB meeting. No any changes in interest rate are expected, however, investors will eagerly await for any comments regarding the QE program tapering. Besides the ECB meeting and subsequent press conference, markets will also pay attention to the US retail sales data, which will be able to bring additional trading opportunities during the NA session.

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Friday, June 15th

The EUR/USD pair is extending its massive retreat, refreshing its 2-week lows on the level of 1.1543, as market speculations regarding yesterday’s ECB meeting are still weighting the common currency. Yesterday the pair witnessed a free fall, having lost almost 300 pips, triggered by ECB’s dovish QE program tapering and Mr. Draghi’s comments regarding next ECB rate hike. According to the results of the ECB meeting, the regulator intends to begin QE program tapering, but starting only in October. Moreover, during the subsequent press conference ECB President M. Draghi said that he sees next interest rate hike no sooner than summer 2019. The outcome of the ECB meeting negatively affected the common currency, sending it to its recent lows. Moreover, upbeat US retails sales data increased buying interest around the greenback, thus additionally accelerating pair’s drop. Now traders’ attention remains focused on the Eurozone inflation data, which is the last important release for this week, so investors will continue to digest recent events, thus determining pair’s further direction.

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Monday, June 18th


The EUR/USD pair again came under bearish pressure on Monday, failing to keep its positions above the level of 1.1600. Renewed weakness of the pair can bemainly explained by increased tensions regarding migration issue in Germany, where German Chancellor Angela Merkel opposes tightening the rules for the entry of migrants to Germany. A tough confrontation on this issue from Mrs. Merkel’s side can cause a repeat parliamentary election. Moreover, increased divergence between the Fed and ECB, following dovish comments of President M. Draghi, who sees next rate hike only next summer, is also putting some pressure on the common currency. As for economic events, today investors will focus their attention on the speech by Mr. Draghi at the Sintra Forum, which will take place during NY trades, while the US data calendar won’t be able to offer anything relevant this Monday.

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