Forex News Trading Plans for Week 12, Mar 16 – Mar 22 2014

Hello Peter !

I did not have any action this time. Did the gun shoot or not?

Yours sincerely

Jay Oksenboel


No, USA Core CPI came out just as expected at 0.1% so deviation wasn't met and there was no click.
 
Hello Peter!

This is the second time this week I tried your FNG and it's second time where I did not see any shooting fire of the Forex News Gun? But I saw a lot of action going on on my chart! I made 102 pips and hoped to get some more with the help of the FNG.

Didn't you find the gunpowder to shoot the FNG this friday or did I do something wrong?

Have a nice weekend!

Yours sincerely

Jay Oksenboel
 
Yup, we have a technical issue on the server, sorry about that. This problem comes up from time to time so I'd like to find that very location in the code that can fix it for good.

And about conflicting events. On merely statistical basis I'm happy with trading such events as this Core CPI and Core Retail Sales. For me starting point is that the probability of a triggering figure is about 20% (p=0.2). So these are the possible outcomes:

No triggering event: 0.8*0.8 = 0.64 -> 64%

One triggering event: 0.8*0.2 + 0.2*0.8 = 0.32 -> 32%

Two triggering events: 0.2*0.2 = 0.04 -> 4% (of which conflicting... well, a part of it, let's say the half: 2%)

That is the probability of favorable outcome is about 34%, and only 2% causes problem. Use of MT4 order panel makes it safe because it closes after the first click so there won't be double entry if both events trigger. Other market conditions have bigger impact than this 2% so taking this risk seems reasonable to me.
 
Hello Peter!

This is the second time this week I tried your FNG and it's second time where I did not see any shooting fire of the Forex News Gun? But I saw a lot of action going on on my chart! I made 102 pips and hoped to get some more with the help of the FNG.

Didn't you find the gunpowder to shoot the FNG this friday or did I do something wrong?

Have a nice weekend!

Yours sincerely

Jay Oksenboel


Hi Jay,

There were nice movements on several pairs but with this trade plan there were no triggering event on this week so this is the expected behavior. In general one out of five event triggers in general. Last year there were three weeks in a row without any trigger - it happens sometimes.

Peter
 
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