Forex News Trading Strategy for the 19th of September - 23rd of September

Jarratt Davis

Special Consultant to the FPA
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This week is big for both the U.S. dollar and Japanese yen, with anticipation building for both the Federal Open Market Committee and Bank of Japan policy meetings. Market participants will be listening closely on Wednesday for any clues from Fed members, about what to expect concerning rates for the remainder of 2016. However, first we will hear from the BOJ where recent comments have suggested the central bank has room to cut rates further in the negative, as well as change the focus to short term bond buying in order to relieve pressure on longer term bond yields.

Monday
Monday’s economic calendar is very light and features no tier one data.

Tuesday
Tuesday starts off with the RBA’s Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes. We are not expecting a lot of volatility from these minutes unless they contain unexpected surprises. The RBA releases a detailed statement along with its rate decision, and that is when we tend to see the most volatility. Later during New York, the Census Bureau will release the U.S Building Permits & Housing Starts for August. Starts in July saw another strong rise of 2.1%, which followed an even stronger 5.6% surge in June. Permits on the other hand have been soft.

Also during Tuesdays New York session, we will see the most recent dairy auction prices with the release of the GDT Price Index. The past two prints have shown strength in the dairy sector with 7.7% and 12.7% gains.

Wednesday
Wednesday is by far the business day of this trading week with the Bank of Japan starting things off with its Monetary Policy Statement and press conference. We expect significant volatility for the Japanese yen during this session. Later during the New York session, we will see the results of the much anticipated FOMC meeting when we see the rate decision, statement, and press conference. Keep in mind we will also get the latest FOMC Economic Projections. We expect significant volatility for the U.S. dollar during the session. Just after the New York close we will get the latest rate decision and statement from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. There is no expected change to the official cash rate, and direction of the kiwi will largely be dictated by the tone of the statement.

Thursday
Thursday is very light so far, however we do have several central bankers scheduled to speak. RBA Governor Stevens is due to testify before the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics. ECB President Draghi is due to speak at the European Systemic Risk Board annual conference, as is MPC member Cunliffe. BoE Governor Carney is scheduled to deliver a presentation titled “Arthur Burns memorial lecture”. Finally, MPC member Forbes is scheduled to speak at Imperial College.

Friday
We end the week with a Flash PMI data from France, Germany and the Euro Zone during Fridays London session. Later during New York we will see the latest inflation and retail sales data from Canada.


You can find other Forex news trading events taking place this week here: Forex Factory Calendar.


P.S. - If you want to learn more about how I trade, check out the link below

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