Forex News Trading Strategy For The Week of 6th - 10th April

Jarratt Davis

Special Consultant to the FPA

I’ve put together some analysis of this week’s Forex news events, which I hope will give everyone a good understanding of how I’m viewing the market for this week.

This week’s “high impact” news event that I will be looking to trade is as follows:

RBA Rate Statement – Tuesday the 7th of April 5:30am

RBA rate statement is the highlight of this week's Forex Trading News events. We all have been anticipating for the RBA to cut their rate despite the fact that the retail calendar here says that there's no expectation.

The institutional markets are actually pricing an 80% chance of RBA cutting their rates. So if it will happen it won't be that much of a shock. Don't get sucked in to try to sell AUD in the event of a rate cut and following that because the downside move is mostly already happened.

We expected it to get to 75 maybe even break 75 but don't be looking to try to make two or three hundred pips just on the fact that they've cut their rates. If there will be a big move down it will be based on the RBA rate statement

If the RBA cut their rate and make it really clear that they are going to cut more, they are going to be really
dovish, then AUD could fall further. But if they say "it's enough for now", we could actually see the downside towards the dollar being very limited.

The other side of the coin is, that if they will not cut it will be a big surprise on the markets and we could see some nice upside on the AUD versus the USD.

To sum up, RBA Rate Statement is an important event and we could see some very interesting price action. Though, it is important to be aware that the institutional markets are pricing this one in-spite of what the forex factory calendar says. If RBA do cut it's not going to be that much of the surprise. Thus, the downside towards the dollar should be limited. It will only go long way if RBA are particularly dovish in their statement.

P.S - If you want to learn more about how I trade, check out this link below
Forex Peace Army - Jarratt Davis
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