FOREX PRO WEEKLY, April 02-06, 2018

[Sive Morten]

Morning guys,

So, markets again stand in fever as tariff's relax has not lasted too long. Yesterday D. Trump gave an order to concider 100Bn more tariffs on China's goods.

As Reuters reports - the dollar fell against the yen on Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump said he had instructed U.S. trade officials to consider $100 billion in additional tariffs on China.
The simmering U.S.-China trade spat has stirred concerns about its impact on global trade and economic growth, and financial markets remain sensitive to any fresh developments on this front.
Trump said in a statement on Thursday that further tariffs were being considered “in light of China’s unfair retaliation” against earlier U.S. trade actions that have roiled global markets.

But, that was concerning yen. Speaking on other currency pairs, when some geopolitical tensions are growing - dollar has raised as it should to.

Currently, guys I'm not really fascinating with EUR upside reversal by many reasons. Fundamentally, turmoil around tariffs will keep all markets in tension, today we will get NFP report which promises to be positive, at least according to ADP numbers.
Technically - some other currencies have uncompleted important targets. Thus, AUD has OP very close to market right now, GBP even more - has 2 side by side bearish grabbers, as we've talked about it in weekly research. Yes, AUD and GBP are not the same of course, but they have some correlation with EUR.

Besides, on daily chart EUR has erased our AB-CD pattern as price has dropped below "C" point. Now it seems that most probable next destination is "A" point and K-support area around 1.2160:

As EUR has broken all Fib levels, we're turning to pivots. Now price is coiling around WPS1, but MPS1 stands again in the same 1.2160 area:

Finally, taking in consideration whole way down on hourly chart - this is definitely not a behavior of bullish markets. Multiple strong supports, targets and Agreements have been broken. We haven't got any even hint on possible reversal pattern. It means that right now we do not see context for long position:

 

[Stag]

Morning guys, the only thing I can add to Sive's analysis is that our drop is churning around the upper border of our corrective price channel and chances are that we have an almost complete ending diagonal (see below) - making my view a bit different. And we already know ending diagonals are terminating patterns: once they terminate, a sharp and swift reversal starts that goes above to the level where they began - as we saw an example a few days ago.

So how to spot a trading opportunity in Euro and how can we monetize on this? This is illustrated in the following figure:

If you remember, subwaves of an ED always subdivide into zigzags or double zigzags (three wave structures) you can easily identify even without being an expert elliottician. First, under this scenario, we are looking for a three-wave decline off the swing high at 1.2260 to complete wave 5 (no evidence it is complete yet). Once we have wave 5 complete, we have to see a swift reversal breaching our first key level at 1.2260 signaling wave 5 may be complete. That would likely be the case if prices exceeded 1.2260 in the recovery, completing wave 1 of an impulsive advance. Then, we would use wave 5 low as working support for higher. Keep in mind that any new impulsive drop below that low would negate this ED scenario in favor of further weakness.

 

[Venelin]

Morning guys,

Happy Easter Holidays Sive!

 

[Sive Morten]

Happy Easter Holidays Sive!

Thanks, Buddy,
Indeed Orthodox church is celebrating Easter in this weekend. That's why I'm a bit late with first research - was busy yesterday. So, today, on Sunday, (although this is not good of course, to work on Easter), I have to put two researches