FOREX PRO Weekly April 04-08, 2011

[kavitha S]

Price differs in my platform

Hi Sive,
When I am comparing the price indicated in your analysis chart, I find that price is somewhat different in my platform and also the fibonnaci levels are also shows very high price. Please clarify in this regard.
Thanks.:

 

[Jyotiprakash Pal]

Hi Sive,
When I am comparing the price indicated in your analysis chart, I find that price is somewhat different in my platform and also the fibonnaci levels are also shows very high price. Please clarify in this regard.
Thanks.:

Thats Futures chart mate .. thats why ....Spot Fx have lil different rates

Here is the Spot Chart But make confirm from Sive Sir .. i am ameture

Thanks for the analysis Sive sir

 

[asdfg]

Hi Sive!
I'd like to listen your opinion in some different matter. During some time I'm trading NFP using USDJPY. But This Friday movement was very small. I think it was caused by Fucusima problems.
Am I right? If so, what is the best alternative pair to trade NFP? Thanks.

 

[Sive Morten]

Hi Sive!
I'd like to listen your opinion in some different matter. During some time I'm trading NFP using USDJPY. But This Friday movement was very small. I think it was caused by Fucusima problems.
Am I right? If so, what is the best alternative pair to trade NFP? Thanks.

Hi Asdfg,
May be I'll upset you, but I'm not "data release" trader. I suggest you should ask Henry Liu about that - in another forum branch.
But, may be you're right - partially because of overall Japan situation, partially because shallow upside surprise (213 vs 185 expected).

 

[patokoruwa7177]

Euro is so complex

I agree with you, auna, I think before the Euro will move higher, because of ECB rate, there is going to be some retracement down for an upward momentum. Don't forget that the reason why the Euro is so strong is because of rate raise expectations ant risk appetite. Just like Sive Morten has always say, long positions should be closed around 1.43... areas. There are many fundamental problems with Euro, very soon they will manifest.....

 

[Sive Morten]

Thanks Mr Morten for the excellent tech analysis. Think we should see some retracement. After NFP, Market got stuck below 1.4250 area and i guess it is highly unlikely we see a 1.43 mark on monday at least. That pull to 1.4060 region on friday before upwards move makes me think that something undecisive is happening right now.Yes you got your FIBs and directional patterns as well as Dynamic pressure but let's see Psychology right now. Euro is pushing against USD and if it crashes 1.43, next stop is 1.50 for sure. i don't think Euro got that kind of Strength and i don't think US will let that happen. They don't want it to fall under 1.40 for now and they got no juice to hold it over 1.43 level is what i think.

I agree with you, auna, I think before the Euro will move higher, because of ECB rate, there is going to be some retracement down for an upward momentum. Don't forget that the reason why the Euro is so strong is because of rate raise expectations ant risk appetite. Just like Sive Morten has always say, long positions should be closed around 1.43... areas. There are many fundamental problems with Euro, very soon they will manifest.....

Hi Auna, Patokoruwa
If you let me, just couple of thoughts about this topic.
1. Couple of weeks ago in research I've pointed the "Fundamental" commentaries and we've discussed that major problem of EU economy that it will not be able support the same pace of recovery for Core and periphery. Second - the same problems with PIIGS. So that is happening...
Conclusion was that from fundamental point of view - EUR looks overbought above 1.40 area.
2. Personally I do not trade weeky and higher time frames. May be Auna does... So, for me it's not very important change in macro picture, because my positions much shorter in time - they just can't feel the change in fundamental sentiment. For me it's the same like using canon to shoot sparrow.

3. Still, due to mentioned reasons - we could see only W&R of 1.43-1.44 area and not upmove continuation, who knows. But technicals suggest that market could reach 1.4350-1.44 area.

 

[georgeta]

Usdchf

Hello Mr. Morten!
USDCHF Daily butterfly started to work. Should we get in or is it too late?
Thank you!

 

[Sive Morten]

EUR/USD Daily Update, Tue 05, April, 2011

Good morning,
Although we still expect to look at market behavior around weekly pivot 1.4148, there are couple of negative signs have appeared for bullish bias:

On daily time frame the Stop Grabber has been formed and this is simulteniously W&R or previous highs. These are bearish signs, that potentially could lead to taking out lows at 1.40.

On 4-hour chart market has turned to retracement move - 1.4148-1.4156 area of Agreement and pivot point. Retracement is gradual. So, depending on price action around this area the further market move will depend.
If market will hit AD-CD target and flirting with pivot will return right back above it - then possibly upside move will still be able to continue. If market will break it
to the downside - then don't be Long. Market has chances to take out 1.40

P.S.
New chapters have been published:
https://www.forexpeacearmy.com/forex-forum/forex-military-school/

 

[Sive Morten]

Hello Mr. Morten!
USDCHF Daily butterfly started to work. Should we get in or is it too late?
Thank you!

Hi, Georgeta,
please attach the chart, so I could understand what do you see there...
Thanks

 

[georgeta]

Usdchf

Hi, Georgeta,
please attach the chart, so I could understand what do you see there...
Thanks

Sorry!
Here is the chart.
The question is: should we get in or it is to late. I do not know where to place the stop.
Thank you!