Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
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EUR/USD Daily Update, Thu 12, April, 2012
Good morning,
On daily time frame market continues to form bearish flag pattern, at least now I have no reasons to treat it other way. Trend holds bearish.
On 4-hour TF picture is the same as yesterday - upward sloped consolidation, trend holds bullish.
The most interesting situation on hourly chart.
First, market has reached 1.3155 1.618 extension of initial AB=CD pattern as we've assumed. From bearish point of view, price has no reasons to move higher except just one - testing of WPP at 1.3168. Market now is forming Butterfly "Sell" with 1.27 extension around 1.3173. If bears are really still in charge, we should see downward acceleration after reaching of this level.
Also, if you will measure extensions of downswing, you will see, that 1.618 extension from first downswing (BC leg of initial AB=CD pattern) and 1.27 extension of second retracement stand within this range - 1.3160-1.3170.
If market will complete this butterfly, I prefer to see W&R of 1.3155 highs and some kind of downward thrusting move.
If market will run through 1.3170 easily - do not enter short.
Good morning,
On daily time frame market continues to form bearish flag pattern, at least now I have no reasons to treat it other way. Trend holds bearish.
On 4-hour TF picture is the same as yesterday - upward sloped consolidation, trend holds bullish.
The most interesting situation on hourly chart.
First, market has reached 1.3155 1.618 extension of initial AB=CD pattern as we've assumed. From bearish point of view, price has no reasons to move higher except just one - testing of WPP at 1.3168. Market now is forming Butterfly "Sell" with 1.27 extension around 1.3173. If bears are really still in charge, we should see downward acceleration after reaching of this level.
Also, if you will measure extensions of downswing, you will see, that 1.618 extension from first downswing (BC leg of initial AB=CD pattern) and 1.27 extension of second retracement stand within this range - 1.3160-1.3170.
If market will complete this butterfly, I prefer to see W&R of 1.3155 highs and some kind of downward thrusting move.
If market will run through 1.3170 easily - do not enter short.