FOREX PRO WEEKLY, April 09-13, 2018

[Sive Morten]

Good morning,

So, EUR is confirming our assumption on possible upside continuation, that we've made in weekend, because despite choppy action on daily chart - EUR keeps well bullish sentiment on monthly/weekly TF.

On daily chart we start to see signs of thrust, bearish grabber hazard has been eliminated and trend has turned bullish here.

On 4-hour chart, EUR has reached our predefined level around 1/2 Fib resistance, WPR1 and completed some extensions. Despite, price has moved slightly higher - it still stands inside of previous swing up. As EUR has formed upside reversal swing, here we will wait for final stage of our trading plan - moderate retracement that should give us chance to take position. Usually retracement after reversal swing takes AB-CD shape. It means that retracement probably should reach at least K-area, but, from harmonic point of view - it could drop to 1.2280 level that we've discussed yesterday.

1H TF shows that on a way up EUR has completed all extension targets, including XOP. Now "222" Sell could be formed here (or butterfly), that could trigger retracement that we're waiting for. Here we do not call you to go short (although you could), because our context is bullish and we're mostly waited for chance to go long:

 

[Stag]

Morning guys, the only thing I can add to Sive's analysis is that our drop is churning around the upper border of our corrective price channel and chances are that we have an almost complete ending diagonal (see below) - making my view a bit different. And we already know ending diagonals are terminating patterns: once they terminate, a sharp and swift reversal starts that goes above to the level where they began - as we saw an example a few days ago.

So how to spot a trading opportunity in Euro and how can we monetize on this? This is illustrated in the following figure:

View attachment 37023

If you remember, subwaves of an ED always subdivide into zigzags or double zigzags (three wave structures) you can easily identify even without being an expert elliottician. First, under this scenario, we are looking for a three-wave decline off the swing high at 1.2260 to complete wave 5 (no evidence it is complete yet). Once we have wave 5 complete, we have to see a swift reversal breaching our first key level at 1.2260 signaling wave 5 may be complete. That would likely be the case if prices exceeded 1.2260 in the recovery, completing wave 1 of an impulsive advance. Then, we would use wave 5 low as working support for higher. Keep in mind that any new impulsive drop below that low would negate this ED scenario in favor of further weakness.

View attachment 37025

We just have seen another example how reliable an ED pattern is.

There is no evidence the advance is complete but may be near to its end. Keep an eye on breaking / closing below the grey price channel for lower.

 

[Sive Morten]

Morning, everybody

So, market mostly confirms our assumption on retracement within 1-2 sessions, before upward tendency will continue. On daily chart we do not have something really new:

On 4-hour chart market has reached Agreement resistance, as EUR has completed XOP target right at major 5/8 Fib resistance. Although initially we've expected that reversal could happen with OP + 50% Fib level combination but, it seems that it is going to start from a bit higher level, where EUR stands right now. Still, we're mostly watching for the end point of retracement, that's why it's not really important where it will start. 4H trend has turned bearish.

Now we need to keep an eye on possible AB-CD that could better specify possible destiantion of pullback.
Here we have a net of Fib support levels. As we have bullish reversal swing, retracement has good chances to be compounded (2-leg) and moderate (1/2-5/8) Fib level.
Now on top we've got butterfly "Sell". Probably we even could talk on H&S, but it looks a bit too steep...Still, "222" Sell that we've mentioned yesterday is still possible.

 

[Stag]

We just have seen another example how reliable an ED pattern is.

There is no evidence the advance is complete but may be near to its end. Keep an eye on breaking / closing below the grey price channel for lower.

View attachment 37080

Morning guys, prices reversed in the green target zone and a correction started as expected.

The drop from 1.2398 has a corrective structure and seems to be uncompleted. The advance from 1.2299 should have a corrective structure and in this case its progress will be limited to 1.236x area before the decline resumes.

I expect further decline towards 1.228x if 1.2317 breaks.

 

[Joh]

Hi Stag,
As i do not see what date and/or time you post yr posts, could you pls put those in yr posts. Like good morning today the 12 the April etc. i see prices reversed etc etc it would help me and may b others as well. Like your posts heaps, they are super. pls keep them posted, regards.

 

[Sive Morten]

Good morning,

So, EUR has confirmed our expectations on retracement that now stands underway. It barely has impact on daily picture. Trend stands bullish. As we've said, while market holds inside the triangle, bullish sentiment stands intact.

On 4-hour chart retracement has started right from the level of Agreement resitance that we've specified yesterday. As we've expected, retracement stands deep, but there are still chances that drop will continue. Since EUR has formed upside reversal swing, usually market shows two leg retracement, in shape of AB-CD, while right now we see only one leg:

On hourly chart retracement could take shape of "222" Sell pattern, so another leg down still could be formed.

That's being said, let's keep watching for retracement continuation. If EUR will return back to previous top - appearing of butterfly is possible. Otherwise, second leg of downside retracement could start from 1.2360 Agreement resistance...

 

[Stag]

Hi Stag,
As i do not see what date and/or time you post yr posts, could you pls put those in yr posts. Like good morning today the 12 the April etc. i see prices reversed etc etc it would help me and may b others as well. Like your posts heaps, they are super. pls keep them posted, regards.

Hi Joh, I'm glad you like my posts but you're kidding me I'm too lazy to take care of it, moreover it's unnecessary, because every post has a timestamp you see in the post footer. Furthermore, I usually post 60-minute charts with an analysis that is tipically valid through 1-2 sessions. But you can consider the last candle on my chart, it shows a snapshot taken at the time I started writing my post - consider a 5 to 10 minute difference until it's actually published.