FOREX PRO Weekly April 18-22, 2011

EUR/USD Daily Update, Tue 19, April 2011

Hello everybody,
Yesterday market has shown strong plunge. Fundamentally it comes from Greece restructuring debt request and stunning news of US credit rating review with negative forecast by S&P.

Technically, looks like I underestimate the power of monthly Fib resistance area and multiple targets that stand around it. If you remember we've discussed inside days trading sessions and once we said, that market is building an energy. But someday this energy should be released - that has happened, market has shown strong trend day. If you have followed our weekly trading plan - you should not be caught in Long position, because market stands below pivot all the time...
Although odds have suggested that market makers should grab stops above 1.45 - that has not happened. Now I think that market has short-term bearish bias.

On Daily time frame you can see excellent angle of piercing signal on MACD. Market has reached daily confluence support. Here it could show some bounce up, that we can use to enter on the short side of the market. The nearest target of the market is 1.4050 area- daily Confluence support, oversold and monthly pivot point.

On 4-hour chart we see nice thrust down, trend holds bearish. HEre is nice context for B&B Sell trade, that could start from 1.4270-1.43 area - this is long term support line, Fib reistance. Stop could be placed above 1.4350 - 0.618 Fib resistance and as you can see, 4-hour chart remains bearish only till that area.
Besides, when daily and 4-hour trends strongly bearish, market is not an oversold, we should use nearest Fib resistance for entering on short side.

Although market stands at Daily confluence support - it has been tested once already and deeply penetrated. I suspect that it will not be so strong during second touch.

P.S.
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https://www.forexpeacearmy.com/forex-forum/forex-military-school/
 

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Thanks Sive

Hiya Sive.
I jumped in tooo early yesterday (long at 1.4264) and watched it plunge to 1.4153:eek:oh: down 110 pips and have slithered out of that trade now at 1.4314 up 50 pips;)
I daresay that the bulls are back in town and a great thanks to you for providing us with a high probability trading plan. However it is our choice and WE are responsible for our timings of entries, money management and the most crucial of all..profitable exits.
Please ignore the stupid traders who expect you to buy their yacht for them..
Thanks for the analysis..
Respect,
Paul
 
Stoploss

Everyone should check out "Markets And Market logic"
J.Peter Steidlmayer and Kevin Kay. for another perspective on stoploss..
Regards,
Paul
 
EUR/USD Daily Update, Wed 20, April 2011

Good morning,
My trading plan for yesterday's session has failed - market has not shown any continuation to the downside and shown V-reversal instead. I have some suspicion, that whales punish public currently or most market participats absolutely confusing with expectations. Because such behavior absolutely unnatural.
I will not give you any definite recomendations today for couple of reasons - I do not see any definite and solid signals and patterns currently, second -just not confuse you with shallow possibilities.
And just share with you what possibly could happen from my point of view...

Daily
here we see that 1.4050 area remains as nearest target for potential move down. Still , if market will erase previous nasty black bar and move above pivot 1.4420, then, there will be great probability of taking out previous highs, or even further upward continuation.

4-hour
Here we can see 0.618 target 1.4442 just above pivot point. Also, if you switch on your imagination - you will see a potential for Butterfly "Sell" and current move down and up is a left wing of this butterfly.
Marke should show some retracement down to create right wing. But do not try to anticipate it - this is very risky.

hourly chart
Here some retracement could come from nice thrust up - you may track it for possible DRPO "Sell" or B&B "Buy" pattern. Be carefull in 1.4420-1.4442 area...

Well, I think that's all. I need more signs from the market to understand what could happen. But, on GBP - there are a lot of bullish stop grabbers. This could lead to taking out of previous highs, so as on EUR. This makes me be even more caution.
Possibly currently is better to stay flat...

If you have some different ideas - let's discuss them here. May be we will find something important.
 

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Good morning,
My trading plan for yesterday's session has failed - market has not shown any continuation to the downside and shown V-reversal instead. I have some suspicion, that whales punish public currently or most market participats absolutely confusing with expectations. Because such behavior absolutely unnatural.
I will not give you any definite recomendations today for couple of reasons - I do not see any definite and solid signals and patterns currently, second -just not confuse you with shallow possibilities.
And just share with you what possibly could happen from my point of view...

Daily
here we see that 1.4050 area remains as nearest target for potential move down. Still , if market will erase previous nasty black bar and move above pivot 1.4420, then, there will be great probability of taking out previous highs, or even further upward continuation.

4-hour
Here we can see 0.618 target 1.4442 just above pivot point. Also, if you switch on your imagination - you will see a potential for Butterfly "Sell" and current move down and up is a left wing of this butterfly.
Marke should show some retracement down to create right wing. But do not try to anticipate it - this is very risky.

hourly chart
Here some retracement could come from nice thrust up - you may track it for possible DRPO "Sell" or B&B "Buy" pattern. Be carefull in 1.4420-1.4442 area...

Well, I think that's all. I need more signs from the market to understand what could happen. But, on GBP - there are a lot of bullish stop grabbers. This could lead to taking out of previous highs, so as on EUR. This makes me be even more caution.
Possibly currently is better to stay flat...

If you have some different ideas - let's discuss them here. May be we will find something important.

Dear Sive-
Thanks as usual for your analysis... The market these days is really hard to predict.
I would like to ask you if you can provide any other good potential in another cross as the EUR is really hard to define right now. This will at least give us some prospective to other potential. Say for example a CHF, JPY crosses.
Thanks for everything Sir.
 
Bullish Gartley in the making !?

Dear Sive,

What about a bullish Gartley in the making on EU H4 ?

See attached file.

Kind regards,

BackSpace
 

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Hello,

From VSA point of view, on EURUSD daily chart one of the most powerful bullish setup was formed: an "effort to fall" followed by a "shakeout". The only thing that is not perfect is that this signal is much more reliable at bottoms.

Anyways, this usually should give us some days of bullish context.

1303286720-clip-7kb.png
 
Dear Sive,

What about a bullish Gartley in the making on EU H4 ?

See attached file.

Kind regards,

BackSpace

Hi BackSpace,
Are we talking about the same pattern that on my 4-hour chart? IT could turn to butterfly by the way...

Hello,

From VSA point of view, on EURUSD daily chart one of the most powerful bullish setup was formed: an "effort to fall" followed by a "shakeout". The only thing that is not perfect is that this signal is much more reliable at bottoms.

Anyways, this usually should give us some days of bullish context.

Hi Fernando,
and what is VSA? What the idea of this patterns?
 
Hi Fernando,
and what is VSA? What the idea of this patterns?

VSA is Volume and Spread Analysis. It is based on comparing the range of bars with the volume to know the real interest of the Smart Money in that movement.

VSA just seeks to interpret what the smart money is doing and tries to trade in their direction.
 
Hi BackSpace,
Are we talking about the same pattern that on my 4-hour chart? IT could turn to butterfly by the way...

Hi Sive,

You are right, it is the same pattern.
Both have failed now !!
EU has hit 14540.
I wonder what is going to happen next.

BackSpace
 
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