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FOREX PRO Weekly April 23-27, 2012

Discussion in 'Sive Morten- Currencies and Gold Video Analysis' started by Sive Morten, Apr 21, 2012.

  1. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    Monthly
    On monthly chart trend holds bearish. Almost 4th month in a row market stands in consolidation after hitting of Agreement around 1.2950-1.30 area. Since Agreement is stronger area than just simple Fib level we have suggested that market could show some deeper retracement up and retest 1.37-1.38 level. Current price action on weekly chart shows that this indeed could happen.
    Still our long term expectation is dollar appreciation to 1.16 level and move to 1.37 will be treated just as retracement in a bearish monthly trend.
    The rest of analysis is the same – our focus is 1.37 K-level as holding barrier. We can accept reaching of 1.37 from long-term bearish view, but we anyhow can’t justify move through it. If it will really happen, I mean breakout through 1.37, then it will put under question overall bearish view on long-term charts.

    [​IMG]

    Weekly
    I intentionally hold the same chart week by week, so that we can track our forecast on market price action. In general our view is still correct, but we were wrong in nuances. General is Gartley “222” Buy pattern. Recall that initially we thought that it should be 1-let retracement and just AB=CD move to the upside. Later it has shifted to more complex smaller ab=cd downward retracement and we’ve come to “222” pattern. But “222” allows to ab-cd has different destination – as 0.618 as 1.27 or even 1.618. The major restriction is ab=cd should hold inside of initial upward swing.
    By nice upward weekly candle, we probably could acknowledge the fact that I’ve missed a bit with retracement depth. I’ve expected that it should be as 1.0 ab=cd, but recent price action shows that now there is more chances that it has completed and is just 0.618 ab=cd. This adds bullishness to picture on weekly chart and gives more confidence with AB-ab-cd-CD move to 1.38 area. We’ll see…
    Also, probably it’s a bit too brave to state about move to 1.38, but move to 0.618 target at 1.3510 seems possible.
    [​IMG]

    Daily
    Finally we have something definite on daily time frame. Despite all efforts and standing around WPP and lower border of triangle for considerable period of time, bears have given up. Will it be total victory or just pause we will see, but now market confirms short-term bullish context. Although price action has canceled Butterfly pattern, but bar in yellow circle simultaneously is bullish wash and rinse. As we’ve said on Friday – we need thrust to make a decision and right on Friday market has shown this upward attempt. Another moment is that market moved above of WPR1 at previous week, and, take a look – almost has broken through daily 1.3180-1.3232 resistance level (probably we can treat it as Confluence resistance, but it’s a bit wide). And of cause – trend has turned bullish.
    Now chances that market still will show move to 1.29 by AB=CD are melting. Looks like that will be weekly “222” with just 0.618 inner ab=cd pattern. If you assumption is correct we should be prepared for move at least to 1.3520 or even to 1.38, depending on what AB=CD move up will be – 0.618 or 1.0.
    [​IMG]

    4-hour
    This time frame is particularly important for us on coming week. First is because we need retracement to enter long (recall – “Buy deeps and sell rallies”) and this time frame gives us total information – when retracement will start and what levels to watch for.
    1.3240-1.3250 is significant level. It includes 0.618 daily resistance, 1.618 butterfly reversal target, and target of AB=CD pattern, that includes butterfly as CD leg. Trend is strongly bullish and it will hold bullish till K-support at 1.3130-1.3140 area. 1.3147 is WPP. So, major area for entry long is 1.3130-1.3147. Another level that seems suitable is 1.3165. The reason why I show this one also is because market is not at overbought on daily time frame. If bulls are really in charge, market could show just light retracement and continue move up. So, if we will be able to enter at 1.3130 – that will be perfect, but it could happen that we just will not see such deep move down.
    Also, if you will take a care look at this chart – you’ll see that this is almost a cloned picture of weekly perspective. Look, initial thrust as AB leg, then downward smaller ab=cd move that creates butterfly and has not quite reached 1.0 extension (as on daily now) and fast acceleration. Particularly this fast acceleration to 1.38 area we wait for. Whole that price action creates compound AB-ab-cd-CD pattern. The first part, by the way is also “222” Buy…
    [​IMG]

    Hourly
    Hourly chart gives more details. 1.3245 is 1.618 target of most recent AB=CD pattern and this level coincides with 1.618 extension of Butterfly. On hourly chart we see solid Friday’s upward thrust that could give us context for DRPO “Sell” pattern.
    [​IMG]



    Conclusion:
    Long-term traders should sit on hands and wait when weekly AB=CD retracement will be over to enter short, or at least market will shift trend to bearish on weekly.
    Recall that weekly context is bullish, market has turned to compounding AB=CD patterns. Daily chart finally has reached some clarity and turned on bullish side.

    Major idea for Monday is as follows:
    1. Wait of reaching 1.3245-1.3250 area;
    2. Be prepared for appearance of DRPO “Sell” or other reversal patterns there. IF you’re scalper you may try to trade it;
    3. Watch for 1.3165 level and 1.3130-1.3140 K-support to enter long. Probably it’s better to apply gradual entry with 1/3 at 1.3165 area and 2/3 at 1.3135 area or apply 50/50 entry – that is up to you.
    4. Potential target should be at minimum 1.3510.



    The technical portion of Sive's analysis owes a great deal to Joe DiNapoli's methods, and uses a number of Joe's proprietary indicators. Please note that Sive's analysis is his own view of the market and is not endorsed by Joe DiNapoli or any related companies.
     
  2. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    EUR/USD Daily Update, Tue 24, 2012

    Good morning,
    In general price action is suitable from our trading plan point of view.

    On daily time frame trend holds bullish, market has tested WPP and now stands above it. Nothing has happened that could make us doubt bullish perspectives by now.
    [​IMG]

    Most interesting picture is 4-hour. Here downward move was a bit stronger than we've suggested and it has changed trend to bearish. Still, penetration of K-support was not so significant and if you've entered long, now you can think about moving stop to b/e.
    [​IMG]


    If you haven't entered yet, in this case you can apply Minesweeper A technique using hourly chart.
    On hourly chart trend has turned bullish - in agreement with daily one and market stands above WPP. So, you may apply nearest Fib support level to enter long or wait appearance of K-support level from most recent swing up (pullback from 4 hour K-area). In this case it will be Minesweeper B.
    [​IMG]
     
    #2 Sive Morten, Apr 21, 2012
    Last edited: Apr 24, 2012
  3. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    EUR/USD Daily Update, Wed 25, April 2012

    Good morning,
    there is few to add here. We've seen upward continuation according with our trading plan. That's good that market shows logical price action.

    Trend is bullish as on daily as on 4-hour time frames.

    Most interesting for us is hourly chart, particularly because Minesweeper A and B technique. Yesterday, there was a possibility to enter by using Minesweeper A at first retracement before jump up. That was precisely 3/8 Fib support level and very close to WPP.
    But do not be upset, today there is a possibility to apply Minesweeper B. Although it's better to use here 15-min chart, but I explain the core at hourly one.
    We can see that market has created K-support at 1.3175 level. Also, if you will calculate downward AB=CD, you'll see that it's target stands around 1.3170, so that is also an Agreement - excellent opportunity to enter long.
    Pure Minesweeper technique suggests holding of bullish trend during retracement (as it was with previous retracement) and we have bearish houlry trend. So, those of you who wants to apply pure approach should wait pullback from 1.3170-1.3175 and trend shifting to bullish before entry.
    Still, in current situation we probably could try enter carefully right from the level. But still two things should be reached - get confirmation from bullish hourly trend after entry.
    Second - we do not want to see plunge down on houlry chart right to 1.3170. We need gradual move down.
    So, try to apply Minesweeper B... Good luck.
     

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    #3 Sive Morten, Apr 21, 2012
    Last edited: Apr 25, 2012
  4. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    EUR/USD Daily Update, Thu 26, April 2012

    Good morning,
    despite of Fed anouncement, price action is flat on daily time frame. Market is continuing to struggle with daily K-resisance and overall price action stands in the range of previous Friday bar.
    Although trend holds bullish and market above WPP, I need bullish confirmation from the market and not I do not see it. This makes me worry about short-term perspectives.
    You can see why on 4 hour chart.

    Here we have classical bearish wedge pattern accompanied with divergence. This is very common issue. Inside of wedge there are two side-by-side butterflies. Although 1.618 and 1.27 targets stands on some distance from each other - they are in a 20 pips range.
    Right near this 1.3240-1.3260 area stands AB=CD target from the initial swing of the wedge.
    We're approaching to solid resistance right at upper border of the wedge. Hourly trend has turned bearish already
    So, I suppose this is nice time to take or protect your profit if you've entered long.
    I will be sure with upward contination if will see failure of this wedge and butterflies. On daily time frame it will be look like acceleration after round bottom. You've seen this million of times, I suppose.
    If market will fail to do that, then we could see classical development after bearish wedge...
     

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    #4 Sive Morten, Apr 21, 2012
    Last edited: Apr 26, 2012
  5. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    EUR/USD Daily Update, Fri 27, April 2012

    Good morning,
    Our worry about bearish wedge were not vain and now we see further development inside of it's body.
    Since today the end of the week, I want to attract your attention to interesting moment. Take a look that price action for whole week stands inside of previous Friday's optimistic upward bar. That is dangerous. First is because market indecision, second is because this put the shadow on bulls' strength.

    On 4-hour chart we see downward reversal right from the level that we've specified. Today it will be day of expectation, I suppose. We can't enter short yet, since daily trend as well as weekly is still bullish, but we can't enter long also, because intraday trends are bearish and we have potentially bearish wedge pattern.

    Still, if you trade on 5-15 min chart, here may be some bearish opportunities for you, I do not know. I'm telling for those who use as a context daily time frame.

    To get confidence with bearish power I need downward wedge breakout and 4-hour K-support area. So probably I will take a look at the market during weekend and try to prepare trading plan for next week.

    There are some problems with file uploading. But they are the same as yesterday.
     
    #5 Sive Morten, Apr 21, 2012
    Last edited: Apr 27, 2012
  6. seedof

    seedof Corporal

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    thanks Sive, i already put a pending sell order at 1.3245 before the market close on friday and set take profit to 1.3200. what do you think about this?
     
  7. fan

    fan Private

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    agree. EU possible go to 1.37
    2012-04-22_19-28-12.
     

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    #7 fan, Apr 22, 2012
    Last edited: Apr 22, 2012
  8. squidge42

    squidge42 Corporal

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    Thanks Sive as Ever;

    Every now and thne the MACD predictor gets discussed and the fact that it's not available for Metatrader. Well I decided to script one myself. I don't know if it's the same algorithm as the Dinapoli one but it based on the premise that it's displays the price that the market would need to hit on the next bar for the exponential MACD to cross and the attached plot looks pretty similar to ones Sive has posted. I'm happy to share it if I'm allowed?

    AsstModerator Note: Regarding the MACD indicator that Sive uses...

    That version of MACD is based directly and exclusively on the work of Joe DiNapoli. Sive bought the book, took the courses, and had the algorithm written into a custom indicator that he personally uses. Anyone who has a legal copy of a book or course describing a custom indicator could do this.

    As I understand copyright law, creating a derivative work like this for your own use is OK. Selling or even giving it away to others without permission of the original author is not OK.

    Squidge, if your indicator was derived from a freely available source and not from DiNapoli's work, then you can share it if you like. Please do give it a different name from DiNapoli's and let people know that it won't work exactly the same.
     
    #8 squidge42, Apr 22, 2012
    Lasted edited by : Apr 24, 2012
  9. Joshnix

    Joshnix Corporal

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    I found the algorithm for the MACd trend change myself. It is on an excel, I used thinkorswim and was able to draw the same line that Dinapoli uses for MACDP. Sive can answer you on whether FPA will allow you to share it. Probably not since it is trademarked and they would be libel for a law suit that would ultimately go nowhere, but bad for them none the less. My feeling is anyone can search out the excel to find the algorithm coding it is up to you. I had it coded and made the EMA constants changeable as some people choose to trade others.
     
  10. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    Guys,
    nothing could be posted here with name MACD Predictor, except proprietary indicator, that authorized and checked by DiNapoli. For instance, when I used CQG, I called it as MACDP, since it was legal DiNapoli trading Pack.
     

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