One thing that confuses me slightly with DRPOs and similar that I would really appreciate some help with:
Does a candle close on the 3x3 count as a break?
Secondly, quite often a bar will close one side of the 3x3 (ie not break it), however the next one can open the opposite side - does this count as a valid break etc..or should we wait for the close of the next one?
Reason I ask is because it looks like one might be forming on the 15min chart
Green line is 3x3DMA. this is EUR/USD 15M futures chart. At frist we see good quality thrust. Continued pressure with almost unvisible retracement. DRPO plays with the close prices of bars. From left to right, first arrow points first close below 3x3DMA , second arrow points second close blow 3x3DMA, and the third arrow points a close above .618 retracement from the top. so this was a 15M DRPO sell failure pattern.
how do u play it?
If u can take risk in halfs or thirds is better.
After the 2nd close below 3x3DMA you can enter short at the market with one half, and the other half at ,382 ,5 ,618 retracements from the top, or simply later if u want to add to the position once the trade is working well. SL should be above .618 from the top at least. I prefer one pip above the highs for short time frames (less than H1). TP..well at the very least .382 retracement from the whole move up. But hey, this is money management and it's another topic! The important thing here is that wherever u choose to enter short, you would have lost. Because once the candle the 3rd arrow is pointing closes above .618 from the top (and I said very well closes) u should immeadiatly reverse your position at the market. This is a confirmed (confirmed means that the candle or bar has closed already) 15M DRPO sell Failure, so U must buy, or at least close your trade.
So...yeah..closes are very important. I have a timer (yellow square at the right bottom marking the lasting seconds for the close of the current candle) that helps me to pay attention when the close is about to come for a bar on a given time frame. The square is programmed to become yellow once a bar is on it's last 15% of timeleft.