FOREX PRO Weekly April 25-29, 2011

[ALF]

Well, I think that my answer a bit late...
But in general - no. Daily trend is bullish, so you have no context to enter short, at least you do not trade some directional patterns that overrule trend. Or -
if you trade at lower time frames, say 5-min and use hourly trend as context.

Hi Sive

You never mentioned that some barrier option interests could be stronger driving factor for the moves we see, and as a rule they had been in discrepancy with indicator's prediction you use. Do not you think so?

Like today, we expected down move toward the WPP area, but maybe the target of the market makers for this up move is simply 1.4650.

 

[Sive Morten]

Hi Sive

You never mentioned that some barrier option interests could be stronger driving factor for the moves we see, and as a rule they had been in discrepancy with indicator's prediction you use. Do not you think so?

Like today, we expected down move toward the WPP area, but maybe the target of the market makers for this up move is simply 1.4650.

Well, possibly you' re right, this is stupid to deny it from my side, but this is very hard to know it in advance.

Still there was a technical possiblity to jump right from this area (butterfly+AB-CD completion). From probability point of view I just thought that market possibly could move a bit lower and it safer to enter from 1.4450...
Just missed a bit... Still - we don't loose, we just didn't enter...

 

[acimponeriu]

EURCHF Analysis?

Hi FPA Forumers,

Like you, I watch Sive's analyses here and I am impressed by their accuracy. But my problem right now concerns EURCHF. I already asked Sive about it and he suggested I post it here.

I consider refinancing a mortgage loan in CHF to one in EUR. The exact amount in EUR I need depends on the EURCHF rate. It's quite a large amount of money for me (some 100k EUR) and I'd try to optimize this exchange. Perhaps there are forumers familiar with EURCHF who can give me some hints, whether the EURCHF could move up in the close future? Based on the monthly chart, Sive wrote:

"This is a monthly chart, market has not hit 1.618 target and sell-off is strong, and potentially it could be 3-Drive "Buy".

Current price action on weekly time frame stands in tight range, so market does not move higher.

Well, my feeling, that market has more chances to move a bit lower and hit monthly 1.618 + acomplish 3-Drive pattern"

On the other hand, if the 3-Drive pattern is likely and EURCHF is unlikely to go below 1.20-1.19 and could come back to 1.40-1.50, I could not not refinance my mortgage at all. Unfortunately, when I took the money, in 2007, the EURCHF was at 1.65... If it goes below 1.18 things will be bad for me.

Any suggestions, please?

Best regards,
Andrei

 

[onewithzachy]

Would you please post short term

Hi Eric,
You're absolutely right, in fact this could be done. But there are some reasons, why I do not recommend such kind of trades. First, because this kind of trades are rather short term, and even if I will post any short term analysis - very few forumers will be able to execute it.
Second, pure techical approach. Look, daily trend is bullish, so you have no context to trade short, say on hourly time frame. But if you trade on 5-30 min charts, and use as context not daily but 4-hour or hourly chart as a context - that's fine, this kind of trades absolutely possible. I do not see any problem to do it.

Maybe no forumers will be able to execute it, however i think it's great for educational purpose. If it's not takes too much burden to you, i -imho - think you should post short term forecast.

 

[nicolebobbin]

Hi Sive, which software you use to detect potential Harmonic Pattern, I use Zup and Kor harmonic on Mt4 platform, you seem doesn't like the Mt4

 

[Paul McConnell]

One2one Bearish..

Hi Nicole.
Pls check monthly one2one on kor where target has just been hit..
Another long white candle coming up?
Regards,
Paul

 

[Icarus]

Hi Sive, can you give your views on xagusd and xauusd for us in the current time?

 

[Sive Morten]

Hi Sive, which software you use to detect potential Harmonic Pattern, I use Zup and Kor harmonic on Mt4 platform, you seem doesn't like the Mt4

Hi Nicole,
well, I use my eyes
Seriously, I do not use any software for pattern recognition.

Hi Sive, can you give your views on xagusd and xauusd for us in the current time?

Hi Icarus,
Our forum has educational purpose. So, I suggest that we should start from your view initially, and then we will discuss it. What do you think?

 

[Sive Morten]

EUR/USD Daily Update, Wed 27, April 2011

Hi there,
Although I thought that market should reach pivot point - that has not happened and 1.27 Butterfly with perfect AB-CD pattern were enough for market.

We have bullish context with solid upside momentum. That's obvious. Nearest target is 1.4740-1.4770 area - daily + monthly overbought, 1.27 daily AB-CD target and weekly pivot resistance 1.

4-hour
trend is bullish, here you can see perfect Gartley "222" pattern AB-CD retracement was just to 0.382 and this is the sign of strength. The target of this pattern at 1.4750 - at the same area.

2 Hourly charts
First, you see perfect expample of butterfly - market now has reached 1.618 target of butterfly and turns to some retracement. This retracement could be in a way of hourly DRPO "Sel" Look-alike pattern.
If you intraday traders - you may try to trade it. If you day traders - wait, when retracement will end. I suppose that 1.4615-1.4630 area should hold the market. Then possibly it could be used to enter long with daily target - 1.4750

 

[BackSpace]

Nzdusd

Dear Sive,

Thanks for the clear analysis of the EURUSD.

About the NZDUSD DRPO sell of last week:
It looks like it has failed.
Am I right !?

Regards, BackSpace