FOREX PRO Weekly April 25-29, 2011

[nicolebobbin]

Hi Sive, Do you count Elliot Wave ?

 

[Sive Morten]

Dear Sive,

Thanks for the clear analysis of the EURUSD.

About the NZDUSD DRPO sell of last week:
It looks like it has failed.
Am I right !?

Regards, BackSpace

Hi Backspace.
Not quite, DRPO may fail only after confrimation. but there was no confirmation yet. Potentially if NZD will turn down and close below 3x3 during nearest couple of days - possibly it could work. I still track NZD for that...

Hi Sive, Do you count Elliot Wave ?

No, Nicole.
I'm not a follower of EW.

 

[Icarus]

Hi Sive, I am looking for patterns on the xauusd and here is what I see. I see a double repo buy on the xauusd 1-hr chart. On the other hand, I see a butterfly buy pattern forming on the 4-hour chart. What does one do in this case? Also, when drawing a butterfly pattern, how does one know from which initial upswing to begin drawing the pattern? Different starting points result in expansion points. In this instance, I started from where I did after measuring out an A-B-C-D pattern up to its peak (for an A-B-C-D sell) and also by placing the confluence of the two triangles at approximately .768 level and finding that the possible target of the butterfly's 1.27 expansion coincides with a 50% retracement from the most recent longer swing up. I am looking at a potential drpo buy on the 4-hr chart of the xag but the bar has not yet closed. Thank you for any instruction on this.

 

[georgeta]

Hi Sive, I am looking for patterns on the xauusd and here is what I see. I see a double repo buy on the xauusd 1-hr chart. On the other hand, I see a butterfly buy pattern forming on the 4-hour chart. What does one do in this case? Also, when drawing a butterfly pattern, how does one know from which initial upswing to begin drawing the pattern? Different starting points result in expansion points. In this instance, I started from where I did after measuring out an A-B-C-D pattern up to its peak (for an A-B-C-D sell) and also by placing the confluence of the two triangles at approximately .768 level and finding that the possible target of the butterfly's 1.27 expansion coincides with a 50% retracement from the most recent longer swing up. I am looking at a potential drpo buy on the 4-hr chart of the xag but the bar has not yet closed. Thank you for any instruction on this.

Hy Icarus!
If you mind my opinion, I should say that as the Hourly DRPO Buy is concerned the retracement is to great so it is not a DRPO.
As for the Butterfly, this is a reverse pattern so the AB wing should not be in the trend direction but pointing the other way. For eg. in your chart, the highest point could be the A point and the lowest of the retracement could be the B point.
Good trading to you!

 

[Sive Morten]

Hi Sive, I am looking for patterns on the xauusd and here is what I see. I see a double repo buy on the xauusd 1-hr chart. On the other hand, I see a butterfly buy pattern forming on the 4-hour chart. What does one do in this case? Also, when drawing a butterfly pattern, how does one know from which initial upswing to begin drawing the pattern? Different starting points result in expansion points. In this instance, I started from where I did after measuring out an A-B-C-D pattern up to its peak (for an A-B-C-D sell) and also by placing the confluence of the two triangles at approximately .768 level and finding that the possible target of the butterfly's 1.27 expansion coincides with a 50% retracement from the most recent longer swing up. I am looking at a potential drpo buy on the 4-hr chart of the xag but the bar has not yet closed. Thank you for any instruction on this.

Hy Icarus!
If you mind my opinion, I should say that as the Hourly DRPO Buy is concerned the retracement is to great so it is not a DRPO.
As for the Butterfly, this is a reverse pattern so the AB wing should not be in the trend direction but pointing the other way. For eg. in your chart, the highest point could be the A point and the lowest of the retracement could be the B point.
Good trading to you!

Hi friends,
Icarus, I do not want to upset you - we all study here, but Georgeta is right on both patterns.
1. This is not DRPO at 3 reasons - poor thrust, too much consolidations between bottoms and too deep retracement after first penetration.
Couple of days ago I've posted video for NZD - there you can see how should thurst look.
2. About butterfly. I hope that simple rule will help you to not get it wrong in future:
the initial swing of Butterfly always opposed to previous swing. Just look at yesterday's hourly chart on EUR, that we've discussed, or monthly chart in the beggining of this thread - see, initial butterfly swing move against previous tendency...

Generally speaking, Gold stands at all time 1.618 extension. Once I' ve posted yearly chart here. This target is at 1500 area. So, it should be solid resistance ahead.
Besides, there were news that public start to buy out gold jewelry in China. Usually when grandmas and grandpas enter on some markets - shares or commodities - it means that rally is very close to an end...

 

[Paul McConnell]

Thank You Sive!

Once again your analysis rocks!
April target has been met..
The bulls are on parade!
Regards,
Paul.

 

[Icarus]

Hi friends,
Icarus, I do not want to upset you - we all study here, but Georgeta is right on both patterns.
1. This is not DRPO at 3 reasons - poor thrust, too much consolidations between bottoms and too deep retracement after first penetration.
Couple of days ago I've posted video for NZD - there you can see how should thurst look.
2. About butterfly. I hope that simple rule will help you to not get it wrong in future:
the initial swing of Butterfly always opposed to previous swing. Just look at yesterday's hourly chart on EUR, that we've discussed, or monthly chart in the beggining of this thread - see, initial butterfly swing move against previous tendency...

Generally speaking, Gold stands at all time 1.618 extension. Once I' ve posted yearly chart here. This target is at 1500 area. So, it should be solid resistance ahead.
Besides, there were news that public start to buy out gold jewelry in China. Usually when grandmas and grandpas enter on some markets - shares or commodities - it means that rally is very close to an end...

Thank you both. It doesn't upset me at all. I am happy to learn.

 

[Sive Morten]

EUR/USD Daily Update, Thu 28, April 2011

Good morning,
looks like our trading plan has done well - market has retraced to 1.4611-1.4630 and then explode to upside - 1.4750 target has been hit.
Ok, but what we goin' to do now?

First, I just want to refresh monthly chart for you. Nearest monthly target is 1.5270-1.53 area. But now market stands at monthly overbought. If you're long term trader - sit on your hands and wait pullback. This is not the time to enter Long.

On daily chart we also see that market hit 1.618 target and daily overbought. If you day trader - wait for pullback. Enter long currently is not very good idea. Market could show pullback, and there are couple of areas to watch for - first Fib support 1.4716 and daily confluence - 1.4586-1.4624. Also you can see, that trend remains bullish only till 1.45 currently. So - if market suddenly move below 1.45 - it will mean that deeper retracement is coming due monthly overbought...

For scalp traders and intraday traders - there are couple of possibilities
4-hour chart
Here you can see that the next target is 1.4920-1.4950 and possibly market force overbought till that area, but you need retracement for that purpose. Market should hold recent swing up from 1.4617 to reach this target. Hence - your levels to watch for- 1.4770 and 1.4711-1.4716. Stop could be placed below 1.46, because - this is the low of recent swing, another confluence support and trend level. If market will break it - then it hardly will reach 1.4950 in near term.

If you're scalper, then take a look at hourly chart:
here we have nice thrust, that could be the basis for DRPO "Sell" of B&B "Buy".
If it will be DRPO - then the probable target is 1.4711-1.4716 Confluence support.
IF B&B - then it could start from 1.4770 and you can buy here with the target of B&B - 0.618 resistance from the whole move down.

 

[ALF]

Hi Sive,

Yesterday you siad:

"Market has strong upside momentum. But 1.4750 - strong area of resistance."

What is your view now?

Thanks.

 

[mjunkyard]

Dear Sive;
About the DRPO: I listened to the video as well. I didn't quite get if i'm meant to wait for it to close under the 3X3 and then enter when it closes above or i could enter short when it closes beneath the 3X3 once?
thanks a million in advance.
sincerely
mjunkyard