FOREX PRO WEEKLY, April 30 - May 04, 2018
- Thread starter Sive Morten
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Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
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Germany profit dropped 70/80% last month, so 1.15 or even @ 1.11 as Sive mentioned some time ago would be a better buy
Joh is right. Rabul - take a look at WSJ article, that I've mentioned in weekly research. Investors complain that hedging becomes too expensive, especially when yields of US bonds is rising. It was 2 months ago. Now, as spread has widened and inflation is coming to 2+% - it could mean new inflation cycle in US, so demand for USD loans and investing in EU bonds should contract.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-hidden-problem-sapping-demand-for-u-s-debt-1519821791
1.20-1.2055 is strong area in my book for a potential bounce. How strong still to be proven. When it drop and close below 2104 it should Continue to drop to 1.191/1.173 but needs to overcome 1.20-1.2055. A better sell is 1.225/1.238 for 1.19x/1.173.
Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
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Greetings everybody,
so, on weekend we've come to conclusion that EUR could response on relatively strong level of OP target and butterfly 1.27 target. But, we've got just puny motion instead of action to 1.22 area. Now let's find out, whether this is really the end and EUR will start dropping to 1.1935 5/8 Fib level, or, upside retracement is still possible.
On daily chart, next destination point is, as we've just said - 5/8 Fib and XOP target slightly below it, around 1.1830. But this picture is not very important for us now. We would like to know what to expect within 1-2 sessions.
We think that upside bounce is still possible, and EUR is not done yet with it. Take a look at 4H chart. Here we have another AB-CD pattern, and its XOP stands around 1.1990, very close to daily Fib level of 1.2035. This is also daily OS level for today.
On 1H chart touching of this target could take shape of butterfly "Buy":
What we would like to say is - do not hurry to go short right now. It seems that our upside bounce to 1.2150-1.22 area still have chances to happen. But bounce should start somewhere from 1.20 area.
Those who would like to go long with scalp trade - keep an eye on butterfly, but don't miss XOP on 4H chart, because your stop should be below it.
Only breakout below 1.1990 without any respect will mean that indeed, EUR probably is coming to 1.1935...
so, on weekend we've come to conclusion that EUR could response on relatively strong level of OP target and butterfly 1.27 target. But, we've got just puny motion instead of action to 1.22 area. Now let's find out, whether this is really the end and EUR will start dropping to 1.1935 5/8 Fib level, or, upside retracement is still possible.
On daily chart, next destination point is, as we've just said - 5/8 Fib and XOP target slightly below it, around 1.1830. But this picture is not very important for us now. We would like to know what to expect within 1-2 sessions.
We think that upside bounce is still possible, and EUR is not done yet with it. Take a look at 4H chart. Here we have another AB-CD pattern, and its XOP stands around 1.1990, very close to daily Fib level of 1.2035. This is also daily OS level for today.
On 1H chart touching of this target could take shape of butterfly "Buy":
What we would like to say is - do not hurry to go short right now. It seems that our upside bounce to 1.2150-1.22 area still have chances to happen. But bounce should start somewhere from 1.20 area.
Those who would like to go long with scalp trade - keep an eye on butterfly, but don't miss XOP on 4H chart, because your stop should be below it.
Only breakout below 1.1990 without any respect will mean that indeed, EUR probably is coming to 1.1935...
Lolly Tripathy
Sergeant Major
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- 515
Dear Sive sir can I request you to share daily overbought and oversold line of eurusd and gbpusd snap shot
Thank you very much
Thank you very much
Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
- Messages
- 18,654
Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
- Messages
- 18,654
Morning, everybody
So, let's take a look again on EUR. On daily chart we still do not see big changes, as our yesterday discussion mostly was focused on intraday patterns.
Still, on daily we need to keep in mind recent thrust down. If EUR will re-test broken 1.2150 lows - we could get B&B "Sell" and good opportunity to go short. Our next destination here is 1.1930-1.1950 area.
On 4H EUR has hit our predefined XOP very accurately and now it seems some retracement is ready to start. Major attention we should pay to 1.2145 K-resistance, because this is an area where daily B&B potentially could start, if, of course, EUR will complete other B&B conditions.
Second trading setup here is most recent leg down. Here it looks small, but this is just in comparison with whole thrust. In reality, it is also sufficient for B&B trade, because it has also 8 bars down. But it probably will be rather fast.
Finally, those of you, who have taken long position by our 1H butterfly - need to care about position. Think about moving stops to breakeven. Although potentially EUR could reach 1.2140, but still, long position right now stands against major tendency and it would be better to keep it safe and highly protected.
Deep retracement doesn't look curious here, guys, because investors could take some profit before NFP as plunge was really significant:
So, let's take a look again on EUR. On daily chart we still do not see big changes, as our yesterday discussion mostly was focused on intraday patterns.
Still, on daily we need to keep in mind recent thrust down. If EUR will re-test broken 1.2150 lows - we could get B&B "Sell" and good opportunity to go short. Our next destination here is 1.1930-1.1950 area.
On 4H EUR has hit our predefined XOP very accurately and now it seems some retracement is ready to start. Major attention we should pay to 1.2145 K-resistance, because this is an area where daily B&B potentially could start, if, of course, EUR will complete other B&B conditions.
Second trading setup here is most recent leg down. Here it looks small, but this is just in comparison with whole thrust. In reality, it is also sufficient for B&B trade, because it has also 8 bars down. But it probably will be rather fast.
Finally, those of you, who have taken long position by our 1H butterfly - need to care about position. Think about moving stops to breakeven. Although potentially EUR could reach 1.2140, but still, long position right now stands against major tendency and it would be better to keep it safe and highly protected.
Deep retracement doesn't look curious here, guys, because investors could take some profit before NFP as plunge was really significant:
Lolly Tripathy
Sergeant Major
- Messages
- 515
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