FOREX PRO Weekly August 01-05, 2011

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
13,142
EUR/USD Daily Update, Wed 03, August 2011

Good morning,
although we've expected that market hits 1.4136 AB-CD target yesterday it has happened today just couple hours ago. If you will drop your time frame to 30-min chart you'll see nice W&R pattern. Also market has not quite reached trendline on 4-hour chart and try to jump out from current levels, shift trend to bullish.

Still, CD leg is much steeper than AB. Also we see strong nasty black bar right to the target area of AB-CD pattern. These are bearish signs that point current move up (if it will happen at all) probably will be just a retracement rather than reversal.

On hourly chart we see 2 areas of resistance to watch for - 1.4177-14187 and 1.4258-1.4268. For bearish momentum is better if market will stop at nearest resistance, still it will not be the tradegy if market even will reach deeper move, right to 0.618 Fib resistance.

Current ustable situation on the markets does not let us to make some extended forecast. It's better to focus on short term trades, until situation will become clearer and markets more stable.

So, we have strong bearish momentum on daily time frame, but market has reached significant area of support and shows some bullish signs on lower time frame. Probably we should focus today on potential retracement with the nearest target around 1.42 area.
 

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zakiaziz

Private
Messages
23
where the target will be for today..

thanks sive for the analysis..
the market still unstable right?
if we hold bearish after the retracement, where the target will be?
because im not clear with the market since yesterday..
thanks.. ;)
 

rashidin5178

Sergeant
Messages
244
thanks sive for the analysis..
the market still unstable right?
if we hold bearish after the retracement, where the target will be?
because im not clear with the market since yesterday..
thanks.. ;)
Hi zakiaziz,

I think just follow yesterday analysis. You can find the target.

Thanks and Best Regards.
 

zakiaziz

Private
Messages
23
still blurr

thanks rashidin5178..
so is that mean it will move down to 1.3950-1.40 or just 1.41-1.4150...
so all the thing thats going up today just retracement right??
im not sure about it..
 

muzammil_p

Private
Messages
11
It will be at 1.1250 on 30 Dec 2011 !

Good luck to all !!!

Hi Johnfa,

Wonderful news .... may be you can sell all your assets and use that money to sell multiple lots of EUR/USD. You will be billionaire by the end of the year.........:p
 

Joshnix

Corporal
Messages
94
Mr. Sive,

I felt burned today as I entered short upon the rejection of the daily MACDP line at 1.4332 then I held today as it went above the MACDP on the daily with my stop at 1.4400 it seems that the price has bounced off the 61.8% retracement line and on the 1h trend turned bearish finally during the Asian session. The 4h remains bullish but it appears as if stop grabber has formed on the daily. Please elaborate on this in your daily update if you feel it is so.

Thank you for your teaching,
Josh
 

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
13,142
EUR/USD Daily Update, Thu 04, August 2011

Good morning,
looks like our trading plan has worked nice for yesterday - market has reached pivot point+5/8 Fib resistance and turned to move down currently.

Still there is a major question stands with current price action.
On daily time frame from one point of view - we see strong upward acceleration to 1.45 - and as we've said previously after some retracement down market very often shows continuation to 1.27 or even to 1.618 target.
Currently market stands particularly in that retracement and speaking in terms of bearish engulfing - it has completed it's target. Also it jumps up from pivot support1, monthly pivot and strong Fib area, accomplished 4-hour AB-CD. So, it could be this major continuation to the upside.

Mr. Sive,

I felt burned today as I entered short upon the rejection of the daily MACDP line at 1.4332 then I held today as it went above the MACDP on the daily with my stop at 1.4400 it seems that the price has bounced off the 61.8% retracement line and on the 1h trend turned bearish finally during the Asian session. The 4h remains bullish but it appears as if stop grabber has formed on the daily. Please elaborate on this in your daily update if you feel it is so.

Thank you for your teaching,
Josh
As you can see on the daily chart - market has not turned trend to bullish, so we do not have a Stop grabber. But further price action in such manner - to the upside still could shift the parity on bulls' side.

So, current price action is a major problem for the bears...

Now take a look at 4-hour chart. Here we also see AB-CD with steeper CD leg and market has reached logical retracement target. So, if bears are still control the market - price should not move above 1.44. You, guys, if you act according our trading plan - should have profitable short position already - if you're bearish, or stand flat - if you're bullish. So, may be it's time to shift s/l to breakeven.

On hourly chart we see that trend has turned bearish and market is forming something like H&S pattern. Still, pullback from 1.4272 area is too strong and this could lead to further upward continuation, or even it could be the start of major daily continuation as we said. From the other point of view - if you're bullish, you do not want to risk much. Probably you can use just latest candle up for placing stop orders. You do not want to see that market will take out lows at 1.4252. If that will happen - market will move down further.

So, here are two different scenarios for different opportunities. Another acceptable way - do nothing, till any clear signs. For instance - breakout of 1.4350 are to the upside, or vice versa - 1.4250 to downside.
 

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navk

Recruit
Messages
7
eueusd daily analysis

Hi,

Tell me when your analysis did not work? Amazing really.

Sive, hats off to you.

I live in canada. I get to read your analysis every day only 7 ET ( 11gmt)

What time you release your analysis normally?

Today morning when i see the price it is already 1.4210 ( travelled below 1.4250. Can we consider this bearish further ?

Thanks for your wonderful analysis.
 

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
13,142
Hi,

Tell me when your analysis did not work? Amazing really.

Sive, hats off to you.

I live in canada. I get to read your analysis every day only 7 ET ( 11gmt)

What time you release your analysis normally?

Today morning when i see the price it is already 1.4210 ( travelled below 1.4250. Can we consider this bearish further ?

Thanks for your wonderful analysis.
Hi Navk,
Usually I post research at 8-9 AM GMT.
Well, yes, I suppose you already have seen this. Tomorrow I'll take a look with more details, btw, tomorrow we will see NFP release.
 

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
13,142
EUR/USD Daily Update, Fri 05, August 2011

Good morning,
market has broken one of the our "red" levels yesterday - 1.4250 and accelerated downward further.
Now it stands at support - 5/8 daily Fib support at 1.4080 and 4-hour trend line support. NExt target is 1.3925-1.3950 area - monthly pivot support 1 + 4-hour 1.618 extension AB-CD target.

Theoretically now market has no strong reasons to show any retracement - both trends are bearish (daily and 4-hour) market not at oversold, but if it will - I think that is better use nearest Fib resistance at 1.4161 to enter short, at least partially. Second part of position you can add if suddenly market will show deeper retracement to 0.618 resistance at 1.4235.
But we can't exclude that, since during whole this move market shows deep retracements. So, choice is up to you - wait for 1.4235 that may be will not happen, or enter partially from 1.4161 and add more on 1.4235 if it will be reached...

So, on hourly chart we see, that retracement could be triggered by DRPO "Buy" pattern (if it will be at all). We need close below 3x3 (green line) and then second close above (First close we already have). So, keep an eye on that pattern.
If you're scalper, you may try to trade it, but risk is significant.
 

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