Forex FOREX PRO WEEKLY, August 03 - 07, 2020

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Morning guys,
not much to comment right now - markets across the board are waiting for the numbers. Here, we mostly try to apply common sense. Last time NFP was 2 times greater than expected. This time markets expect 1.6M of new jobs created. Here we should recall one important detail from our weekly report. Congress is not adopted yet the prolongation of 3-month support measures and this programme is over in August. It means that people who were sitting on this programme, should worry about its ending and start to search the job. This gives some chances that NFP could be better than expected. Last time, btw, expectations were beaten for 1.5 times in plus area.

From technical point of view, it is nothing to do yet. On daily chart we're still watching for either DRPO type of action or spike to 1.2010 to complete monthly COP target.

On 1H chart market stands in gradual pullback and it seems that 1.18 level could be reached prior NFP numbers. After that either EUR jumps or drops to 1.17 or even lower. So, 1.18 is some kind of the border between these two scenarios: