FOREX PRO Weekly August 08-12, 2011

[Hasan11]

hey sive.

Hope your well, we saw some major EUR sell off today, in the US session. quicker than i have ever seen before and certainly quicker than the move up yesterday after the FOMC meeting.

The down move was somewhat predictable as there was double top, stochastic overbought and bearish divergence on the 1 hour intra day chart.

However, my question to you is, the current move down has found some support at the 50%, fib level from the BIG H&S, the move down is currently around 14180, around the 50% retracement level, from the head to the right shoulder.

Technically, in my opinion, because of such market conditions, i think that H&S, is still viable and tradable. market has not taken out the lows around 14070 and even due to FOMC, people are going to buy EURO for carry trade purposes.

What would you say?

I would also be thankful, if you provide me with the fundamental side of the story.

Thank You

Yousuf.....

Salam Yousuf,

I think that today's euro down move was not due to france.
you can see a very clear H&S pattern between 1,44-1,435 in 5-minute time frame.

All my best..

 

[nicolebobbin]

Hi Sive, I think you should change your long term view on EURUSD, outside there every other professional organization have the same bearish view on this pair. I can't say who is right or wrong and I don't follow them blindly but their analysis worth considering
First is the analysis from MIGBANK , click this link to open their pdf technical analysis

http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-08-10_migbank_daily technical-analysis-report.pdf
(is there anyone fix the link issue of Forexpeacearmy forum ? everytime I paste a link it appear like above, it doesn't look good.


Secondly is the Elliott Wave count from Capital Management, (many years experience trading FX ) I attach the screenshot for daily and weekly below

 

[Jyotiprakash Pal]

Hi Sive, I think you should change your long term view on EURUSD, outside there every other professional organization have the same bearish view on this pair. I can't say who is right or wrong and I don't follow them blindly but their analysis worth considering
First is the analysis from MIGBANK , click this link to open their pdf technical analysis

:err: why Sive sir will change his mind!!! if you check last 6 daily candles u will find .. its too chooppy ... still u making good profit with sive sir analysis .there is no doubt about his fundamental knowledge and technical. and dun trust eliotation ... ask six elliot wave specialist about target .. they will give you six different kind of targets :O

 

[Sive Morten]

EUR/USD Daily Update, Thu 11, August, 2011

Good morning,
yesterday again was an example why I prefer to possess myself for H&S somewhere around right shoulder - to not been hurt by such kind of reversals.
We've disccused that previously and in FPA Military School.

Still, on daily time frame H&S is still intact. To start thinking otherwise, We need to see clear close below the low of right shoulder, 0.618 Fib support and earsing of piercing in the cloud pattern.
So, in terms of daily time frame - all are the same.

On 4-hour chart it's not so clear. First, recent price action is too choppy. Market changes direction as compass on the pole - very fast and very strong.
Our H&S pattern starts to look not so perfect as before, since now we see that there will be much more time for right shoulder to form. So it becomes skew.
Also take a look at strong bars in opposite directions for 2-3 recent days. Market is nervous.
Personally, I will stay flat, at least to the end of current week, because from the one point of view - H&S is still intact although was "harmed" a bit.
From the other point of view - I can't just close eyes on recent plunge and it has nice chances to be contintued further.
So we can't say definitely due to recent choppy price action what will happen and can't exclude as further downmove as return back to neckline.

 

[Damian1987]

Pattern Recognition

Morning Sive!!!

Recently I've finished reading "trade what you see" by Jouflas and I'm training my skill and my eye on pattern recognition.

According to this EUR/USD 30-min chart analyzed by me of recent price action is it ok to say that first we had a "Gartley 222" sell with a point D in the same place as the right top of a "Double top pattern", both of them giving as a context of downward price movement followed by a butterfly buy pattern?

to make the question easier..are these patterns ok????????

I am now reading "Trading in the zone" by Mark Douglas.

Ok mate, I hope you have a good day, thanks for everything.

 

[Sive Morten]

Hi Sive,

I am sorry for my misspell. It will be descending triangle.

You can see more about this pattern in this link..

Descending Triangle Definition

thanks..

Hi Hasan,
well, for me it looks more like a bullish wedge. This is one reason among the others, why I think that market is more bullish rather than bearish in medium term.
We've discussed that in weekly researches.

hye sive..
thanks for your great analysis...
in my opinion on H1 chart it seems like H&S..
do you agree with that?
now im little bit confused.. because on H4 also got small H&S..
so if we still hold bullish, where should we enter for buy?

Well, we had have to enter long around 1.4150, as we've pointed in our trading plan. As later you enter (closer to the neck line) as more risk you will have to take, since the failure point of H&S pattern will be farer.

hey sive.

Hope your well, we saw some major EUR sell off today, in the US session. quicker than i have ever seen before and certainly quicker than the move up yesterday after the FOMC meeting.

The down move was somewhat predictable as there was double top, stochastic overbought and bearish divergence on the 1 hour intra day chart.

However, my question to you is, the current move down has found some support at the 50%, fib level from the BIG H&S, the move down is currently around 14180, around the 50% retracement level, from the head to the right shoulder.

Technically, in my opinion, because of such market conditions, i think that H&S, is still viable and tradable. market has not taken out the lows around 14070 and even due to FOMC, people are going to buy EURO for carry trade purposes.

What would you say?

I would also be thankful, if you provide me with the fundamental side of the story.

Thank You

Yousuf.....

Hi Yousuf,
It's a bit difficult to understand what are you talking about, but if you'are speaking about reverse H&S on 4-hour chart, then, probably it still could work, although I do not like it as strong as some days before.
It's better if you will attach chart for better look at your analysis.

Hi Sive, I think you should change your long term view on EURUSD, outside there every other professional organization have the same bearish view on this pair. I can't say who is right or wrong and I don't follow them blindly but their analysis worth considering
First is the analysis from MIGBANK , click this link to open their pdf technical analysis

Secondly is the Elliott Wave count from Capital Management, (many years experience trading FX ) I attach the screenshot for daily and weekly below

Well, Nicole,
Probably they will be right and I will be wrong. I'm not flatter with my own quality, who knows.

But my approach to market is a bit different - they draw the whole picture, but I move gradually step by step. May be we will come to the same conclusion.
I try to trade, say, what I see on the market. Currently I see some kind of H&S pattern that still holds. If market will break the low of it's right shoulder - then I also will say that we have to be aware of downmove. But currently I can't say that, because there are no reasons yet.

Morning Sive!!!

Recently I've finished reading "trade what you see" by Jouflas and I'm training my skill and my eye on pattern recognition.

According to this EUR/USD 30-min chart analyzed by me of recent price action is it ok to say that first we had a "Gartley 222" sell with a point D in the same place as the right top of a "Double top pattern", both of them giving as a context of downward price movement followed by a butterfly buy pattern?

to make the question easier..are these patterns ok????????

I am now reading "Trading in the zone" by Mark Douglas.

Ok mate, I hope you have a good day, thanks for everything.

Hi Damian
Speaking with the letter of the book, you have to be careful to enter short, since we have explosive bar up right to 1.0 target. And as a rule it leads to further continuation up.
With this rearview, probably you're right, but this also was a butterfly "Sell" pattern, it just has not reached the target.
Double top seems perfect.
So, conclusion - yes, we can treat it like that, but I probably has not entered with it, taking into account all moments that I've described.
BTW, here you can see, what really could happen and how all these patterns could co-exist - as you've asked yesterday.

 

[Sive Morten]

Damian,
I see DiNapoli Levels on your chart, what kind of software is it?

 

[Damian1987]

Dealbook 360. GFT UK charges 80 USD per month for the full suite of Dinapoli Indicators.

Thank you for the quick reply!!!

I do remember now that gaps at the open, wide range bars and tail closes are indicators of continuation of movement although I've somehow imagined that a pattern (such as the double top) would have more influence at the moment of making decisions and taking actions (the same way Dinapoli gives higher hierarchy to a directional indicator even if the trend is different).

 

[Icarus]

Hi Sive, I think you should change your long term view on EURUSD, outside there every other professional organization have the same bearish view on this pair. I can't say who is right or wrong and I don't follow them blindly but their analysis worth considering
First is the analysis from MIGBANK , click this link to open their pdf technical analysis

http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-08-10_migbank_daily technical-analysis-report.pdf
(is there anyone fix the link issue of Forexpeacearmy forum ? everytime I paste a link it appear like above, it doesn't look good.


Secondly is the Elliott Wave count from Capital Management, (many years experience trading FX ) I attach the screenshot for daily and weekly below

Can you make the charts that you post smaller please?

 

[Sive Morten]

EUR/USD Daily Update, Fri 12, August 2011

Hi there,
It's difficult to comment just 1 new bar on daily time frame, especially it stands inside of some consolidation, but what I want to say...
Take a look closely at right shoulder of our potential H&S pattern. What can you say? I can clasify this as market indecision. If you draw weekly and monthly pivots there you'll see, that whole 2 weeks market just flurts with them and shows highs and lows at equal distance from it. During current week market has not shown any close above pivot, altough it has tried almost every day.
Second, do you see that market is forming higher lows? And daily trend stands bearish... but market does not support it. To me it looks like bullish dynamic pressure, although we can't enter long just yet. Need clearer signs on lower time frame.
So, my mind is sometimes there are a moments on the market where is better to stay flat. And it looks like that currenty is particular that moment. If you want to put your head in churn - be my guess.

Now about 4-hour chart. Just look at yesterday's trading session - market is forming broadening triangle, may be it will turn to rare diamond pattern, I don't know, but It seems that something serious is coming. After such kind of consolidation strong move should to come. There are a lot energy was built and accumulated now. It has to be released.

So, if you still intend to trade today - do not marry any position, take your profit fast and reduce trading volume. Probably it's better to trade at 5-30 min charts today, since current range rather tight on the market.