FOREX PRO Weekly August 15-19, 2011

[Sive Morten]

EUR/USD Daily Update, Fri 19, August 2011

Good morning,
market has shown deeper retracement and I do not very like it. Particularly, I do not like fake out around neck line and I do not like deep retracement after just reaching of 0.618 daily target.

Now, next support area is 1.4220-1.4240. Also this is an agreement with daily AB-CD 0.618 target but to the downward.
MACDP now stands at the same area, so this will be important point, since today market could show daily trend shifting to bearish, or it could not...

But our major interest today is linked to scalp trade possibility. Take a look at hourly chart - 1.4220 area includes - 1.618 AB-CD target, Butterfly Buy target, 0.618 daily target and Fib support. Probably market will bounce from it at the first touch - this will let us move stop to b/e. There is no need for deep stop - 20-30 pips below 1.4217 (1.618 target of butterfly). If market will even show 0.382 retracement from whole move down - that will be excellent trade.

Later today we will see (or may be on Monday) what will happen with daily trend...

 

[Sive Morten]

HI Sive,

I now realise I read or understood your analysis wrong for quite a while. For the past two weeks I have paid better attention to what you say in your weekly analysis and daily updates. Apart from a acting a bit too slowly on Monday, as trailing stop hit before I got to my computer all your other 'predictions' have come through. I am particularly impressed by the fact, which I was afraid to act up on by the way, that yesterday despite all the bullish signs, the market could take out the low of the day before. Did it not do just that and almost to a tee. I placed several buys even on the way down. The lower it went to higher the amount. At hitting 1.4335 I closed for a nice profit. Now as you said it is waiting for the trend to change on the hourly and 4 hourly charts.

My apologies for misjudging you in the past. I now know the problem was at my end. Sometimes I think you are a profit. Your analysis is spot on but all the moves on the market are due to clear events and announcements, still the technical analysis seems to be able to predict these wierd swings.

Thank you once again. Looking forward to many more of your insightful analysis.

Geert

Hi Geert,
to be honest, I do not know why do you apologize...
Well, I'm glad that you've found something useful in all this stuff.

Guys, be simplier - if you see something useful here - use it, if not - ignore it, nobody ask you to pay for it.

 

[Sive Morten]

I'm not the giant here... and i only wanna your opinion not a complete trading plan. But ok, here is what i think:
After the crash in 2008, the Euro lost around 30% and the Pound some more than 50% against the Dollar. Today the Euro in the near the 61,8% retracement, but the Pound stands only at the 38,2% retracement. Now i think, a long term up trend is possible, while the Dollar is going weaker. What do you think about that?

Hm, it's very difficult to understand what term analysis do you need. But I suspect that long-term. Currently technical picture tells, that market could reach 1.72-1.76, since as you've said right - it's a retracement move from initial plunge in 2008. (4th wave). Then reversal down is possible and potential target is 1.35-1.36 But this is long-term perspective - 2012-2014 years

But as any long-term forecast, it's very approximate, since shows just current picture. Couple of Ben's words and it could change, you understand me

 

[bdux97]

Guys, be simplier - if you see something useful here - use it, if not - ignore it, nobody ask you to pay for it.

Hi Sive
Nice statement,bravo,as people think if it is free ,well then it is not usefull as something you pay good summ monthly.The truth is quite opposite your work here is to be really appreciated as it involves knoledge ,effort and dilligence of excelence, thank you so much.I think many of us which follow your work have the same opinion.

 

[sanders]

Hm, it's very difficult to understand what term analysis do you need. But I suspect that long-term. Currently technical picture tells, that market could reach 1.72-1.76, since as you've said right - it's a retracement move from initial plunge in 2008. (4th wave). Then reversal down is possible and potential target is 1.35-1.36 But this is long-term perspective - 2012-2014 years

But as any long-term forecast, it's very approximate, since shows just current picture. Couple of Ben's words and it could change, you understand me

Thank you Sir.

 

[zakiaziz]

If market will even show 0.382 retracement from whole move down - that will be excellent trade.

my question is.. where is 0.382 retracement? i didnt see it.. :unhappy:

 

[asif faryad]

Thank you

Bravo

Sive you simply are the best and a great Mentor to learn from.

Thank you so much for teaching all of us )))))))))))

Asif

 

[jkgoh]

Doom Day ?

:shocked:oh: