FOREX PRO Weekly August 20-25, 2012

[dkami]

Thanks Sive for you thoughts on overall situation much appreciated!

I wish I could bring myself to trade EUDUSD so I could make the most of your daily analysis, but I still cant work out which is the better economy they both seem to be riddled with high debt,high unemployment ect,ect and I really don't understand these economy's or politics so I like to follow along the lines you wrote "When I do not understand something – I prefer not to invest in these assets"

Also would you be so kind and elaborate more on what you mean when you wrote this "there are some interesting disproportions on the market. For instance, currently Australian Banking sector has become greater than European"

Cheers

 

[Sive Morten]

Hi Sive,

I think that you've posted wrong picture of the actual 4-hour time frame.

You've posted from previous week, ending in August-10 (it's the same one used on previous weekly analysis). It should be ending in August-17, showing butterfly, as in the video.

Thanks buddy, I've fixed it.

Appreciate your thoughts, Sive.
They make 100% sense to me !!!!

My wife still keeps telling me every day, that all this financial stuff is HEAVILY manipulated by some VERY BIG boys, so trying to make sense of it is like reading the gypsy cards, lol.

Well, it is difficult to exclude this possibility totally, but even if this is really the case - we have to understand what Big boys are doing to join them.

 

[Sive Morten]

Also would you be so kind and elaborate more on what you mean when you wrote this "there are some interesting disproportions on the market. For instance, currently Australian Banking sector has become greater than European"

Cheers

Well, I just want to tell, that Australia looks interesting. Actually it has looked interesting during whole crisis period. Australia has much lower debt/GDP ratio, AAA-rating, better economy pace, stronger currency. In long-term perspective, since currency highly related to Gold, it could lead to mass inflow in Australian assets. One problem here is that on the market is too few Australian assets, nominated not in AUD. Since AUD is not suitable for everybody.

 

[dkami]

Well, I just want to tell, that Australia looks interesting. Actually it has looked interesting during whole crisis period. Australia has much lower debt/GDP ratio, AAA-rating, better economy pace, stronger currency. In long-term perspective, since currency highly related to Gold, it could lead to mass inflow in Australian assets. One problem here is that on the market is too few Australian assets, nominated not in AUD. Since AUD is not suitable for everybody.

Thanks Sive for your explanation

now if I could ask you one more question and hear your thought on this if you would be so kind

On friday Swan (current Aust. treasurer) had a speech calling for RBA to lower rates in a hope to weaken the AUD giving help to the industries that are suffering from the high AUD,he did state there would not be direct intervention but as a medium, longer term carry trader I would like to hear your thoughts on if the RBA did cut the cash rate by say 0.75% by the end of the year would this have a big impact medium to longer term in weakening AUD or would the AUD remain strong because of the reasons you mentioned above?

From the time of Swan's speech friday morning to market close saturday morning AUDUSD weakened and price closed on its low

P.S. sorry for getting off topic in a EURUSD thread

 

[alexoptimistic]

your political analysis of the Euro situation is simplist and inaccurate. the problem about Greece leaving the Eur is its political implications. of course it represents a small portion of the europena GDP but if that disaster happens the EU will simply end. The European project is based on the solidarity between peoples and countries, if that fails the whole building collapses and very soon the same will happen to Portugal, Spain and Italy. So to expect that EUR can recover from Greece's exit is a financial suicide... It's not the size of Greece is its meaning.

 

[D.R.&Quinch]

The European project is based on the solidarity between peoples and countries, if that fails the whole building collapses and very soon the same will happen to Portugal, Spain and Italy. So to expect that EUR can recover from Greece's exit is a financial suicide... It's not the size of Greece is its meaning.

It may have begun that way.
THe euro without Greeece is worth more to the powers that be( cans can be kicked around for ages) than no euro to speculate on.

 

[Kingrex]

thanks Sive for the analysis.

what do you think the percentage is that a breakdown is occuring between dollar Index and EURUSD?
how should we expect this to affect the EURUSD price action, volume, etc?just some questions that pop in mind after reading you report..

 

[Kingrex]

..id tell my wife that there is strength in numbers and that's why i joined FPA...

 

[ochills]

Hi Sive, Honestly words are not sufficient to to express my appreciation for your wonderful & comprehensive tutor.
thanks as usual it is a great privilege learning under you. thank to FPA as well good work as usual.ion after
Pls I have a question after reading your military lessons and Pasavento trade what U see pls can u explain to me how to identify PRICE harmony in harmonic pattern as you often explain in the harmonic lesson, I understand time harmony i.e harmony in time of time bar.Pls hw can I determine Price Harmony? thanks

 

[Sive Morten]

Thanks Sive for your explanation

now if I could ask you one more question and hear your thought on this if you would be so kind

On friday Swan (current Aust. treasurer) had a speech calling for RBA to lower rates in a hope to weaken the AUD giving help to the industries that are suffering from the high AUD,he did state there would not be direct intervention but as a medium, longer term carry trader I would like to hear your thoughts on if the RBA did cut the cash rate by say 0.75% by the end of the year would this have a big impact medium to longer term in weakening AUD or would the AUD remain strong because of the reasons you mentioned above?

From the time of Swan's speech friday morning to market close saturday morning AUDUSD weakened and price closed on its low

P.S. sorry for getting off topic in a EURUSD thread

Dkami, it's a bit shame to me, but I'm not keep a close eye on Australia. I manage fund in EUR, so currently I'm just thinking about Australian expansion and try to assess currency risks. I've not come to any conclusion yet. My thoughts are simple. If gold in long perspective should show appreciation, what will be with AUD and AUD-nominated assets? So, probably I'm not a best adviser now on AUD rate.

your political analysis of the Euro situation is simplist and inaccurate. the problem about Greece leaving the Eur is its political implications. of course it represents a small portion of the europena GDP but if that disaster happens the EU will simply end. The European project is based on the solidarity between peoples and countries, if that fails the whole building collapses and very soon the same will happen to Portugal, Spain and Italy. So to expect that EUR can recover from Greece's exit is a financial suicide... It's not the size of Greece is its meaning.

Alex, my task was to meet you with risks that could appear in nearest time. All that I want to show is that in Europe there is some contradiction between willing to stay and hold EUR and unwilling to accept limitations. This could lead and leads already to political disproportions.
I didn't say the word that Greece exit will resurect EU economy. Thought that Greece exit will shatter confidence to EUR we have discussed previously many times.

Hi Sive, Honestly words are not sufficient to to express my appreciation for your wonderful & comprehensive tutor.
thanks as usual it is a great privilege learning under you. thank to FPA as well good work as usual.ion after
Pls I have a question after reading your military lessons and Pasavento trade what U see pls can u explain to me how to identify PRICE harmony in harmonic pattern as you often explain in the harmonic lesson, I understand time harmony i.e harmony in time of time bar.Pls hw can I determine Price Harmony? thanks

Well, this is some sort of trial-and-error and personal work. You just need to take long chart of some specific time frames and measure swings. Then try to find some base. This will not be some fix value. For EUR it's about 35-44 pips. All other swings will be some ratio of this value. And longer-term swings also should be linked by some Fib ratios with this value.