FOREX PRO Weekly August 20-25, 2012

[rashidin5178]

DRPO "Sell" on hourly??

Yeahh, but the price action after DRPO entry signal not very impressive...I'm expecting DRPO failure that will lead to at least 1.2550 area

Thanks and Best Regards

 

[Synchronicity]

guys, you should read this: Is The SNB Going To Unpeg The EUR/CHF? - Seeking Alpha

also, forgot to mention, i keep reading that because of the peg, the SNB has been buying 100s of billions of euros, thus totally messing with its reserve ratios, which means that when the SNB adjusts its reserve ratios, it will have 100s of billions of euros to sell or exchange for other currencies such the AUD or USD, or JPY, etc... you get the picture.

so of course, it's not gonna happen overnight, but if the SNB continuously is selling a couple of billions (or yards as they say in the industry) that should make ambitious topside targets difficult to reach.

sive, what do you think? how should we interpret this kind of situation going forward the next 6 months?

not to mention that DEC 2012 is getting closer too... maybe everything will actually fall apart and money will become meaningless after that ;-) but that's another story

Hi Triantus

Do you still have your Long trade open on this pair? Unpegging could decimate those who went long when the floor meant limited risk. I am long but by an amount that would be a nice profit at 1.30 but wouldn't kill me if it fell to 1.10

All the best

Michael

 

[Sive Morten]

Guys, for those of you who trade equities - be careful.

Monthly stop grabber on S&P 500 has reached the target and on weekly we could get a W&R. Also, VIX stands at minimum levels - so the probability of plunge down is high, although I've expected reaching of 1450 on S&P 500 first.

 

[Triantus Shango]

no i closed a while back. but thanks for reminding me.

Hi Triantus

Do you still have your Long trade open on this pair? Unpegging could decimate those who went long when the floor meant limited risk. I am long but by an amount that would be a nice profit at 1.30 but wouldn't kill me if it fell to 1.10

All the best

Michael

 

[Triantus Shango]

funny, i was thinking about that last night. and after reading the financial press today, my feeling just kept getting stronger that we might see some serious down move in the SP500.

now sive, would this mean that it'll drag down the e/u with it?

Guys, for those of you who trade equities - be careful.

Monthly stop grabber on S&P 500 has reached the target and on weekly we could get a W&R. Also, VIX stands at minimum levels - so the probability of plunge down is high, although I've expected reaching of 1450 on S&P 500 first.

 

[Sive Morten]

funny, i was thinking about that last night. and after reading the financial press today, my feeling just kep getting stronger that we might see some serious down move in the SP500.

now sive, would this mean that it'll drag down the e/u with it?

We can't exclude this. As I've said in weekly research - I do not understand the reasons of equity market growth, I mean fundamentally. Probably this is some advance of QE III expectations, but resent stats shows some improvement and I think that Fed will keep rate at low level for longer period, rather than will start QE III.
On E/U I still have long-term bearish view. For me this pullback is just a retracement. 2 months ago we have readjusted our bond portfolio, so 80% of it now in USD.

Why I'm talking about inconsistency and curiousity - because I'm looking at Corporate bonds now - try to find something to buy and see that those bonds of low credit rating (but having nice fundamentals), that traded 2 months ago at 4.5%-5.5% now are traded at below 4%. It means that bond market is in charge. No out flows from there. That's why I do not like equities currently. I have some papers, mostly blue chips - but they were bought only for this technical jump - that almost has finished or even totally has finished. There is some light hope that before US elections equities are growing - that's the only reason that makes me think about move to 1450.

But as soon as equities will hit minimum required yield, I probably will sell them. May be I'm wrong but currently is not the time of equity market yet. And it worthy to look at recent COT report probably on SP500 futures....

 

[Triantus Shango]

guys, here's a link to an article about this subject: RICHARD RUSSELL: 'Something Evil And Bearish Is Bubbling In The Guts Of This Market' - Business Insider

 

[Kingrex]

guys, just came across this piece of news:

'Telegraph on August 18 - just for info - as some focus on this article. Telegraph: Lord Rothschild has taken a near-£130m bet against the euro as fears continue to grow that the single currency will break up. The member of the banking dynasty has taken the position through RIT Capital Partners, the £1.9bn investment trust of which he is executive chairman. The fact that the former investment banker, a senior member of the Rothschild family, has taken such a view will be seen as a further negative for the currency. The latest omen follows news in The Daily Telegraph late last week that the government of Finland is already preparing for the euro's break-up.Sources close to RIT suggested that the position was not a dogmatic negative view on the euro as a currency, but rather a realistic approach on a currency that remains relatively weak.
On FX, EUR/USD relatively stable now, at 1.2358-60, finding bids at 1.2320-30/1.2290-00. Though good to watch the above bet from Lord Rothschiuld, given concerns over euro future as markets continue to receive conflicting signals - from ECB, Bundesbank, Germany and eurozone. EUR/USD offers 1.2380-00. huge stops below 1.2285. EUR/GBP at 0.7857-60 interest to sell on rallies, for break of 0.7820/0.7800. '

Source: 4castweb.com quoting the telegraph newspaper

hmm interesting. if the plan is to sell on rallies, how does a trader gauge the depth of a "rally"?

 

[Kingrex]

We can't exclude this. As I've said in weekly research - I do not understand the reasons of equity market growth, I mean fundamentally. Probably this is some advance of QE III expectations, but resent stats shows some improvement and I think that Fed will keep rate at low level for longer period, rather than will start QE III.
On E/U I still have long-term bearish view. For me this pullback is just a retracement. 2 months ago we have readjusted our bond portfolio, so 80% of it now in USD.

Why I'm talking about inconsistency and curiousity - because I'm looking at Corporate bonds now - try to find something to buy and see that those bonds of low credit rating (but having nice fundamentals), that traded 2 months ago at 4.5%-5.5% now are traded at below 4%. It means that bond market is in charge. No out flows from there. That's why I do not like equities currently. I have some papers, mostly blue chips - but they were bought only for this technical jump - that almost has finished or even totally has finished. There is some light hope that before US elections equities are growing - that's the only reason that makes me think about move to 1450.

But as soon as equities will hit minimum required yield, I probably will sell them. May be I'm wrong but currently is not the time of equity market yet. And it worthy to look at recent COT report probably on SP500 futures....

very interesting observastions. i agree that in this coming period having a diverse portfolio is more than essential to a nice equity growth curve in our accounts. i believe there will be some good sectors and some not so good sectors, some worse sectors and the worse and in all that a trillion ideas to make some cho chos...US energies equities may not be the worse or as worse as US financial equities in the coming weeks might be but I would not trade against this scenario unless markets reaches my personal mental stop loss.... ........"..hope not another accidental flash crash"

 

[D.R.&Quinch]

guys, just came across this piece of news:

'Telegraph on August 18 - just for info - as some focus on this article. Telegraph: Lord Rothschild has taken a near-£130m bet against the euro as fears continue to grow that the single currency will break up. The member of the banking dynasty has taken the position through RIT Capital Partners, the £1.9bn investment trust of which he is executive chairman. The fact that the former investment banker, a senior member of the Rothschild family, has taken such a view will be seen as a further negative for the currency. The latest omen follows news in The Daily Telegraph late last week that the government of Finland is already preparing for the euro's break-up.Sources close to RIT suggested that the position was not a dogmatic negative view on the euro as a currency, but rather a realistic approach on a currency that remains relatively weak.
On FX, EUR/USD relatively stable now, at 1.2358-60, finding bids at 1.2320-30/1.2290-00. Though good to watch the above bet from Lord Rothschiuld, given concerns over euro future as markets continue to receive conflicting signals - from ECB, Bundesbank, Germany and eurozone. EUR/USD offers 1.2380-00. huge stops below 1.2285. EUR/GBP at 0.7857-60 interest to sell on rallies, for break of 0.7820/0.7800. '

Source: 4castweb.com quoting the telegraph newspaper

holy cow anyone want to estimate how Lord Rothschild did this week?
maybe he got in @1.2242 -1.238
2mill usd?