FOREX PRO Weekly August 22-26, 2011

[ivans990]

Read Fibonacci Ratios with Pattern Recognition by Larry Pesavento

Thanks, I found it.

 

[fanioz]

Hello Sive,

Did we have " Black Nasty Candle" here ? and, is this ABCD pattern is valid ?

Thanks b4




edit : My entry was'nt at 1.435xx because, I'm waiting for the break of the first bulish candle, that is arround 1.438xx. From your point of view is this still the "low risk entry" or the "high" one?

 

[Sive Morten]

EUR/USD Daily Update, Fri, August 26

Good morning,
Tonight will be Bernanke Speech in Jackson Hole at 16:00 CET or 10 AM Chicago Time. So, if you want to take part in this party continue reading, if not - you may skip this update

Fundamentally, announcing QE III whatever way it will be, is negative for USD, since this is just unbacked issue of currency. By buying back bonds US borrow from themselves and in medium term this should lead to weaker dollar. Rumors tell that the value of that programm will be 500-2000 Bln USD.

Although on daily picture we see that market stands in tight range for 2 weeks and building an energy that will release today, no doubt, look at greater picture tells that market struggle with 1.45, and make higher lows, showing ascending triangle. That is a bullish environment. Even if true breakout will happen to the downside, I suspect that we will see W&R of 1.45 area, since there are a lot of stop there.

On 4-hour chart we see that market has reached our 1.4350 target and turn north. As we've said yesterday this could lead to big Butterfly "Sell" on 4-hour chart with 1.27 target around 1.46 area. I suppose that is what we have to focus on. Particularly the most recent, current upside swing is our work space for today.

On hourly chart we see nice 1.4380 area - confluence support and pivot point that I like to enter long. Hourly trend is bullish. The major problem is with stop placement. Logically, in normal environment we can place it below 1.4357 Fib support, somewhere around 1.4335. But today is "Doom and Gloom" day - you can be easily stop-out even if you're right.
From the other point of view - placing stop below 1.4322 makes no sense, since if market will take that low it will not still erase butterfly, because it will be valid till 1.4253 level. But this is too far...
So, this question is up to you - how you will struggle with today's volatility.
But may be it makes sense to enter long 1.4380 with stop at 1.4335. If market will accelerates to the upside first for 20-30 pips - move stop to b/e.
I suppose, that despite the direction of truth breakout, we will see 1.45 W&R anyway.

 

[nicolebobbin]

You said we will see WnR 1.45 in anyway, does this mean EU will at least touch 1.4500 no matter what the news is ?

 

[asif faryad]

Party Invite

Thanks My friend for the anaylis.

I am a little worried today as when Ben asks me to advise him on which he should go today i will have to tell him i am not the correct person i am just an imposster the real brains behind the operation is Dr. Sive Morten,

Sive as always your views on the market are unbiased and show what can or not happen.

Wish you a great weekend and if your free come along to Jackson Hill to party with the Fed Boys!

Asif

 

[Sive Morten]

DRPO "Buy"

Market has formed DRPO "Buy" on 5-min right around our support at 1.4380...

 

[Sive Morten]

You said we will see WnR 1.45 in anyway, does this mean EU will at least touch 1.4500 no matter what the news is ?

Yes, this is very probable. I can't say "it has to" but odds around 80% that this will happen, even if true breakout will ne downside. Track Ben's speech. If it will silence on QEIII and his speech will be just time spending, then move could be downward.

 

[Damian1987]

Hey Sive! thanks for the weekly analysis and the last signal you've shared. I've already moved my stop to b/e and took some profits, now it's showtime. Have a nice weekend.

 

[ALF]

There is no QE3.................

"Fundamentally, announcing QE III whatever way it will be, is negative for USD, since this is just unbacked issue of currency. By buying back bonds US borrow from themselves and in medium term this should lead to weaker dollar. Rumors tell that the value of that programm will be 500-2000 Bln USD.".......

Hi Sive,

There is no QE3.............. Any change in your view?

Thanks.

 

[Sive Morten]

"Fundamentally, announcing QE III whatever way it will be, is negative for USD, since this is just unbacked issue of currency. By buying back bonds US borrow from themselves and in medium term this should lead to weaker dollar. Rumors tell that the value of that programm will be 500-2000 Bln USD.".......

Hi Sive,

There is no QE3.............. Any change in your view?

Thanks.

Will be wait for 20th of September - next FOMC meeting.