FOREX PRO Weekly August 27-31, 2012

Hi Sive,
thank you for your fantastic job! It is unvaluable for me as a beginner!!
Maybe I got it wrong but I guess there might be an error in today's text update: "1.2380-1.24 area will be not area to watch for buy signals".
I guess the "not" shall not be there, or? Shouldn't we look for buys at that area?

Thank you and keep it up for us! :p
 
damian, thanks for sharing.

quick question: if dealers say that this futures market is one of the most illiquid in 40 years, do you notice any significant increase in volatility at all?


Hi papao. I do have acces to depth of market, although due to my ignorance I don't know how to take valuable info from it. I know some people only trade from DoM grids. my biggest order at the market on eur/usd was 4 contracts. As retail traders we are little fish in the ocean, if we are to reach a limit..it will always be the inferior limit...superior limits are for jp morgan traders ;) . I usually get 1 separate fill per contract..but all at the same price. Specialist say these are the most iliquid markets they have seen in 40+ years of trading...dealers refusing to fill large orders in one hit is quite common these days. Due to my account size I do not find any liquidity problems.
 
i guess 'not' should have been 'now'....?

Hi Sive,
thank you for your fantastic job! It is unvaluable for me as a beginner!!
Maybe I got it wrong but I guess there might be an error in today's text update: "1.2380-1.24 area will be not area to watch for buy signals".
I guess the "not" shall not be there, or? Shouldn't we look for buys at that area?

Thank you and keep it up for us! :p
 
Seasons in gold? . What is this subject about Sive? Could you please develop some more? Thank you!!!

Hi Damian,
in Genesis there is indicator - Seasonal trend. Apply it on Gold. Most commodities have seasonal trends - most bright are Agriculturals of cause. This comes due natural proccess such crop for example.
Speaking about gold - this is very cunning market. And it is very unnatural such clear breakout without grabbing stops right below obvious support on monthly chart. It is more common to gold - first to move around 1500 and grab stops and only after that start move up. And that is still possible, if current breakout will fail.
But if it will not - we could get ButterflY "Sell' on monthly with 2025 and 2160 targets.
Speaking about fundamental reasons - in long term perspective negative yields on bonds and much injection of money will lead to inflation. Now it is difficult to say - will this inflation appear on strong control or will be out of control, since Fed flows of money into economy are really outstanding and here is large question will economy totally absorb it...
 
Morgan stanley fx analysis pdf

guys, if you are interested in Morgan Stanley's report for the next couple weeks/months, here it is attached. makes for interesting reading that's for sure. enjoy.
 

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can we trust any report those "mofos" publish for public consumption.? will read it

holy cow that is complicated stuff
 
Hi Damian,
in Genesis there is indicator - Seasonal trend. Apply it on Gold. Most commodities have seasonal trends - most bright are Agriculturals of cause. This comes due natural proccess such crop for example.
Speaking about gold - this is very cunning market. And it is very unnatural such clear breakout without grabbing stops right below obvious support on monthly chart. It is more common to gold - first to move around 1500 and grab stops and only after that start move up. And that is still possible, if current breakout will fail.
But if it will not - we could get ButterflY "Sell' on monthly with 2025 and 2160 targets.
Speaking about fundamental reasons - in long term perspective negative yields on bonds and much injection of money will lead to inflation. Now it is difficult to say - will this inflation appear on strong control or will be out of control, since Fed flows of money into economy are really outstanding and here is large question will economy totally absorb it...

I checked that indicator out, thanks Sive. I was expecting to see some kind of periodic function (like sinus) , to my surprise it was not. Seasons in gold are a function of what? on agriculture i understand is a function of metheorological conditions and the translation of the earth around the sun, but on gold i still don't get it ^^.

damian, thanks for sharing.

quick question: if dealers say that this futures market is one of the most illiquid in 40 years, do you notice any significant increase in volatility at all?

Hey Triantus. Given my lack of experience in trading (2 years) I haven't had the opportunity to trade on other market conditions. Illiquidity started supossely after the sub prime crisis, so I couldn't tell. All I know is that they say the game is harder nowadays. But hey, that can be good..if we survive this conditions then the future will be easier and we would have had great training on harsh conditions.

Hi Damian,
so how far do you analyze this triangle breakout for Gold will go ?
It has reversed a little in the last two days. Also do you see Gold correcting down to below 1600 level or 1550 level anytime soon ?
I know on a long term it may exceed 2000 coming 2013.
Thanks for your inputs :)

Hi blueraven. If you read Sive's quote you have the answer. If breakout fails then probably we are going to grab the stops around 1500 (im not looking at the chart..just rephrasing Sive) before any continuation towards the year 2011 highs.
Common target for triangle breakout classical pattern is usually the height of the mast. You will find a better explanation and charts on the FPA school written by Sive in this website, take a look at it.
Since we are talking about weekly TF (at least on my chart) a 2-day pullback doesn't mean much (if context hasn't been cancelled...and is has not). Currently there is a 6-hour drpo sell developing (we need one close below 3x3 DMA to confirm) . 1631 is a good buying spot for weekly traders. if we get a drpo failure then next target is 1691.
 
Hi Sive
Pls am in interested in trading gold but my observation about it is that gold usually don't move straight
that looks appealing for trading but I still believe people do trade it.
pls can you advise me on it and recommend books that can enlighten me better on it.
thanks as usual.
 
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