FOREX PRO Weekly August 27-31, 2012

[Sive Morten]

Hi Sive

I found when all your indicators are on the bullish side, the market turns bearish.

Well, Alf, as a response on your unspoken question I have only one argument. Probably this is because price moves faster than any indicator.

Hey Sive,

I know in your analysis yesterday you said that a retracement to 50% for butterfly is good, but is this pattern still valid even though market attempted push up from 50.0 support? Or has this pattern failed because the pattern found support at 50% but failed to continue up? Can we say that this 78.6 support is the last stand to validate this H4 butterfly?

Market pushed down to 1.2500 area but still above WPP and important support area (1.246x)

Right now, market stands exactly at 78.6 support of A-B leg of butterfly.

Thanks, Sive!

View attachment 6466

Hi Beekay,
the depth of retracement is not so important. It could be even 100%. Butterfly failure point is a low of initial swing.

 

[MidnightRun]

Good morning,

Yesterday's price action gives a lot of questions concerning future of bullish bias on daily time frame. Once we've said, that since market has not shown AB=CD retracement and made fast bounce from WPP, normal price action suggests upward continuation but not an erasing of this bounce. But particularly erasing we're seeing now.

Formally trend holds bullish, market still stands inside bullish flag, butterfly has not being erased yet on 4-hour chart and so on. But price action... It left small chances for upward continuation, especially if we will take into consideration NASDAQ confirmed daily DRPO "Sell" and Gold nature.

On hourly chart we also see downward triangle breakout that absolutely unnatural in current situation from bullish point of view.

So, my thoughts - it's better to stay flat. Enter short a bit early, since we could get daily Stop grabber, for example, or, say, butterfly will work.
At the same time I'm not very fascinating about Long position, when market couldn't confirm its consistency to continue upward move.

Morning Sive,
Do I take it right that you view NASDAQ as a sort of indicator of future eur/usd bias? How reliable is this correlation?
Thank you.

 

[Marketjoy Trader]

So, my thoughts - it's better to stay flat. Enter short a bit early, since we could get daily Stop grabber, for example, or, say, butterfly will work.

Sive, you mean probably erasing of down move?

 

[Marketjoy Trader]

Hi All,
Does anybody have a copy of the 2010 Felix Homogratus series on ' The secret of a successful forex trader'? I would be pleased if they can share as my copy was lost when my laptop was stolen.
Does FPA have a saved copy?

 

[stelore]

Hi Seve, are you thinking to sell now?
Thanks Sir.

 

[Sive Morten]

Today Bernanke will speak in Jackson Hole, so market is extremely volatile now and even has accomplished our weekly target, although today in my comments I've said that have some doubts on this count.

Usually I prefer do not trade in such environment. So, choice is up to you. If investors will not get what they want on QEIII - we can see real doom&gloom.


* Market awaits Fed chair's speech at 1400 GMT

* Any signal of imminent Fed easing would weigh on dollar

* ECB's Coeure says bond buying must have strict conditions

By Jessica Mortimer

LONDON, Aug 31 (Reuters) - The euro rose to an eight-week high against the dollar on Friday before a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke which would push the U.S. currency lower if he signals more monetary easing may be imminent.

Following comments by European Central Bank executive board member Benoit Coeure, the euro also benefited from anticipation that the bank will announce clear steps to tackle the euro zone debt crisis at its policy meeting next week.

It rose 0.7 percent on the day to hit $1.2595 <EUR=>, its strongest since early July, with traders noting buyers from the Middle East. It stopped just shy of a reported options barrier at $1.2600 and last traded at $1.2579.

Expectations Bernanke will signal another imminent round of asset buying, or quantitative easing, have ebbed recently following better U.S. economic data, allowing the dollar to recover. But some analysts said this has merely provided better levels to sell.

"Expectations have been pared back from one week ago and the risk/reward is shifting back towards a potential positive surprise," said Audrey Childe-Freeman, head of foreign exchange strategy at BMO Capital Markets.

She said the euro may fall if Bernanke refrains from signalling more QE, but this would be an opportunity to buy the currency, which she believes has the potential to break higher towards $1.2762.

Fed money printing usually cheapens the dollar as it increases the supply. Bernanke speaks at 1400 GMT at a meeting of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

 

[Sive Morten]

Today Bernanke will speak in Jackson Hole, so market is extremely volatile now and even has accomplished our weekly target, although today in my comments I've said that have some doubts on this count.

Usually I prefer do not trade in such environment. So, choice is up to you. If investors will not get what they want on QEIII - we can see real doom&gloom.


* Market awaits Fed chair's speech at 1400 GMT

* Any signal of imminent Fed easing would weigh on dollar

* ECB's Coeure says bond buying must have strict conditions

By Jessica Mortimer

LONDON, Aug 31 (Reuters) - The euro rose to an eight-week high against the dollar on Friday before a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke which would push the U.S. currency lower if he signals more monetary easing may be imminent.

Following comments by European Central Bank executive board member Benoit Coeure, the euro also benefited from anticipation that the bank will announce clear steps to tackle the euro zone debt crisis at its policy meeting next week.

It rose 0.7 percent on the day to hit $1.2595 <EUR=>, its strongest since early July, with traders noting buyers from the Middle East. It stopped just shy of a reported options barrier at $1.2600 and last traded at $1.2579.

Expectations Bernanke will signal another imminent round of asset buying, or quantitative easing, have ebbed recently following better U.S. economic data, allowing the dollar to recover. But some analysts said this has merely provided better levels to sell.

"Expectations have been pared back from one week ago and the risk/reward is shifting back towards a potential positive surprise," said Audrey Childe-Freeman, head of foreign exchange strategy at BMO Capital Markets.

She said the euro may fall if Bernanke refrains from signalling more QE, but this would be an opportunity to buy the currency, which she believes has the potential to break higher towards $1.2762.

Fed money printing usually cheapens the dollar as it increases the supply. Bernanke speaks at 1400 GMT at a meeting of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

 

[Triantus Shango]

look at gold! what a mofo! keepin' on roarin' and yet, e/u is stuck at 259x. wtf?!

 

[minimax]

Hi All,
Does anybody have a copy of the 2010 Felix Homogratus series on ' The secret of a successful forex trader'? I would be pleased if they can share as my copy was lost when my laptop was stolen.
Does FPA have a saved copy?

Ayo,

best luck



Felix Homogratus

 

[minimax]

look at gold! what a mofo! keepin' on roarin' and yet, e/u is stuck at 259x. wtf?!

hehe, thats life, 1696,88