1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

FOREX PRO Weekly December 03-07, 2012

Discussion in 'Sive Morten- Currencies and Gold Video Analysis' started by Sive Morten, Dec 1, 2012.

  1. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2009
    Messages:
    11,848
    Likes Received:
    15,789
    Monthly
    As we’ve mentioned on previous week – there was a really time of change on monthly chart during previous couple of weeks. Now we can point that monthly trend has turned bullish. This significantly changes overall perspectives. Still, market stands in K-resistance area of 1.2934-1.3149 and hasn’t broken it yet. As a potential bullish scenario we could get lightning bolt AB-CD right to 1.38 Agreement.
    But what are the risks? I see currently only one – if K-area will hold price action. In this case market should form solid black candle. If simultaneously trend will shift bearish again – this will be a kind of 2-period stop grabber and strong bearish signal. But it hardly will happen unexpectedly. We definitely will see some bearish development on lower time frames before that.

    [​IMG]

    Also I would like to show you this nice bullish stop grabber on monthly S&P 500 index.
    [​IMG]
    Weekly
    I suppose that weekly chart again will be foundation for all our work within coming week. Recall that on previous weekend, after not very successful trading week, we’ve stated that since fundamental picture is tough – as in EU as in US data shows not impressive dynamic, so that competition stands not about those who have better data, but among those who have not so bad data as counterparty, we’ve suggested that better to follow long-term technical picture. At the same time following should be not blind – our major work is to search patterns that stand in a row with it, use it to enter in the same direction. Patterns are necessary, since they allow reduce our risk. And this tactics has given result on previous week. We’ve entered only in the same direction as weekly chart points.
    Now probably we should continue with it, especially because weekly time frame gives us more and more signs of potential upward continuation. The first chart is almost the same as on previous week, but with some details. Here we again see support that has come from 25x5 DMA – market initially has broken it and retested then from the other side. On weekly chart of EUR/USD there never was failure breakout of 25x5 by the way. Simultaneously we have bullish Gartley “222” Buy pattern. The specific of this pattern is that market has shown only 3/8 retracement on BC leg right to 25x5. Shallow retracement hints on bullish power.
    Now we have new monthly pivots for December. MPR1=1.3121 creates solid barrier above and tandem with 3/8 resistance 1.3149 that has been tested already once. MPP stands at 1.2891, so we have to be ready for possible retracement to it sometime within December.
    Minimum potential target is 0.618 extension around 1.3360 – and take a look, it stands above previous highs. But how we could get there with strong resistance above? Take a look at second chart…
    [​IMG]

    That is a bullish stop grabber. Although I like a bit different looking stop grabbers, but still, we can take this one too. Besides, we do not have anything else right now. This pattern can explain how we can get right above previous highs...
    Besides, this pattern gives us huge advantage – it gives us tradable swing for daily time frame, since its invalidation point is it’s low at 1.2880. Once market will take it out – stop grabber will fail. Another significant moment is that new MPP stands slightly higher, so if even market will show pullback to it, there are some chances that stop grabber will survive.
    [​IMG]
    Daily
    On daily time frame there are no patterns yet, so here I just show you our range for work within weekly stop grabber pattern. Trend holds bullish here, market is not at overbought. Take a note that inside of this range we have two significant support areas besides of Fib levels. First one is WPP at 1.2964, second is tandem of MPP and WPS1 at 1.2890-1.29 area. They will probably become potential areas to watch for long entry.
    [​IMG]
    4-hour
    On Friday we’ve discussed possibility for Double Top pattern here. Although market has shown intention couple of time to start move down – it has not happened yet. The shape of potential pattern has changed a bit. To say, I prefer to see sharper slopes of the Tops, but here they a bit extended in time. Anyway, here we can note just single conclusion: if this will be Double Top, then it will lead to failure of weekly stop grabber, because it suggests much deeper move below the neckline. The neckline, in turn is a stop grabber invalidation point. May be we will be able foresee it by the speed of downmove on second after second top. If it will be very fast with solid bars down – it will be worry sign. If it will be gradual and choppy, then it will better remind retracement and add points to stop grabber.
    [​IMG]


    1-hour
    Here we can see some fib levels that come in play around pivot points. First of all is hourly K-support area around WPP. MPP and WPS1 in turn, stand close to deep 88.6% Fib support.
    Current price action reminds a bit H&S pattern, but looks goofy – too skewed, no ratios executed between tops and shoulders – looks not very fascinating.
    [​IMG]


    Conclusion:
    Previously we’ve said that although market is showing thrilling changes on long-term charts, and potentially they are very attractive, overall situation is very difficult and it’s quite uneasy to take into consideration all parts of puzzle. In such sort of environment, may be we should move with direction of these changes, but controlling our risk by sticking with particular patterns on lower time frames. That should let us flow with the market and take advantage with unexpected possible acceleration. Probably we will hold this tactics on current week too.

    The technical portion of Sive's analysis owes a great deal to Joe DiNapoli's methods, and uses a number of Joe's proprietary indicators. Please note that Sive's analysis is his own view of the market and is not endorsed by Joe DiNapoli or any related companies.
     
  2. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2009
    Messages:
    11,848
    Likes Received:
    15,789
    EUR/USD Daily Update, Tue 04, December 2012

    Good morning,
    so guys, market does not want to give us easy trade. We didn't get our retracement to step in and price has accelerated a bit further. What we're going to do now?

    Our minimum target, according to weekly pattern is daily highs around 1.3165 area. Market now stands at WPR1 and probably around some deep Fib resistance - 0.768-0.88, I suppose. So some chances on pullback are exist. If this will really happen, I expect to see one of two scenarios:
    1. Retracement to 1.30 or to K-area+WPP.
    2. Deeper retracement to major 3/8 level around MPP.
    Other levels are not suitable for us, since they stand beyond the range of stop grabber. It doesn't mean that if market will reach them, upward move will not happen. It's just mean that if it will happen, then only by some other reason or pattern.
    So, if one of these retracement will follow - we will get AB-CD, that will have target above previous highs on daily. That will be pattern that lead price to stop grabber targets. But what to do, if no retracement will follow?

    On 4-hour chart we see AB=CD pattern with target around 1.3145 - 20 pips lower of stop grabber destination. 1.3145 is MPR1 as well. So, I suspect that if market will reach it, price will challenge the highs and minimum target of weekly pattern has chances to be achieved. Currently market stands also around 0.618 target of this pattern.
    But take a look - MACDP line come close to price action. I can't exclude that this could be bullish 4-hour stop grabber, that could move prices higher. Hourly chart shows some sort of bullish dynamic pressure, that stands in a row with possiblity of stop grabber.
    That is second primary moment to watch in nearest ours.

    That's being said. If 4-hour time frame will break to the downside - then we probably will get the retracement, and will watch levels that we've just discussed.

    If there will be stop grabber on 4-hour chart, then, probably we can use it to join the party.

    At least currently I do not see any other patterns here
     

    Attached Files:

    #2 Sive Morten, Dec 1, 2012
    Last edited: Dec 4, 2012
  3. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2009
    Messages:
    11,848
    Likes Received:
    15,789
    EUR/USD Daily Update, Wed 05, 2012

    Good morning,
    market is showing such price action, when it just creeping and creeping higher without any reasonable retracements - only minor pullbacks on intraday charts.
    On daily time frame we're approaching to turbulence zone - WPR1, Weekly major 3/8 resistance at 1.3150 and previous highs on daily around 1.3170. Here, probably is too late to initiate longs, at least on daily time frame.

    On 4-hour chart trend is bullish, and we will continue to deal with our AB=CD pattern. It is possible that we could get W&R of previou highs, since CD leg is flatter than AB. This very often leads to deeper retracements at AB-CD target point. It will be perfect if market shows us some clue - reversal pattern with target slightly higher than 1.3170 - for instance Butterfly.
    Hourly chart shows another AB-CD with 1.618 target around 1.3160. Appearance of W&R is also possible due the moment that targets of both pattern stand slightly lower than 1.3170.
    Anyway, we have to be ready for that. May be all this staff will happen on NFP release, who knows.
    That's being said - two moments to watch:

    1. Clearing of 1.3170s highs by weekly stop grabber.
    2. Watch the way how it will happen, be aware of W&R and any reversal patterns in this area.
     

    Attached Files:

    #3 Sive Morten, Dec 1, 2012
    Last edited: Dec 5, 2012
  4. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2009
    Messages:
    11,848
    Likes Received:
    15,789
    EUR/USD Daily Update, Thu 06, December 2012

    Good morning,
    as we've mentioned yesterday - market stands at resistance of MPR1, major 3/8 Weekly resistance and inside of K-resistance on monthly chart. 1.3020 area is 1.27 extension of hourly AB-CD as well, so - it was not the time to entry long right below it.
    But fortunately market is giving us a pullback. Probably we can call it as "pullback" at least right now, since it has no signs of reversal yet. So, we have 2 days ahead - let's try to estimate potential depth of pullback and our long entry point.

    Daily time frame could help us with harmonic swings. If we measure previous bounce, clone it and drag to current point, we will see that retracement should be somewhere to 50% support of most recent swing. Trend is still bullish here and no bearish directional patterns.

    On 4-hour time frame trend has turned bearish. We also see 1.3028-1.3032 K-support area, slightly higher than 50% support level. Why I still think that upward continuation is possible? By 2 reasons. First one is on this chart - market has not completed AB=CD just for 25-30 pips. Second is weekly stop grabber - it's still in progress.

    Hourly chart gives us downward AB-CD right to 1.3022 level - so we have Agreement around 4-hour K-support area. Conclusion - watch for 1.3005 (50% support)-1.3030 area for long entry. Also watch on 15 min chart for any reversal patterns in this area that could become a trigger.
    Min target is still the same - highs around 1.3170.

    The one thing that we do not want to see is fast downward acceleration - be aware of it. If market will pass through K-support easily with fast long black candles - do not enter long. We want to get such price action as on chart - slow, a bit choppy and gradual.
     

    Attached Files:

    #4 Sive Morten, Dec 1, 2012
    Last edited: Dec 6, 2012
  5. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2009
    Messages:
    11,848
    Likes Received:
    15,789
    Good morning,
    so, market has shown price action that we've said to be aware of - miserable plunge on hourly time frame. What we could do now? Not much. At least today, I suppose, especially on NFP release...

    On daily time frame trend holds bullish, market has reached K-support+WPP. Despite solid move down our trading plan still holds, since price has not taken out weekly stop grabber's low. Here we have to moments to monitor. First is potential bullish stop grabber. Price stands very close to MACDP. That's stop grabber that I like to see - in the same direction as previous thrust. If we will lucky and get it - our "upward plan" will get the second breath.
    Second moment, although it's a bit extended in time, is possible butterfly pattern. It often happens, when market takes highs by forming butterfly patterns.

    On 4-hour chart we also see that market has hit 1.618 extension of our yesterday's AB-CD pattern, but did it in extreme manner. So daily K-area is an Agreement as well.

    Hourly chart is more educational right now. Here i do not see any patterns, except bearish pennant. What is more important - it shows excellent picture, why you have to get patterns on your side in every trade. It can save you, even if you will be totally wrong. Yesterday I've monitored this Butterfly "Buy" pattern, that could become the trigger for long entry, as we've discussed. Initially all goes nice, market has turned to forming of reverse H&S pattern, but a bit later plunge has come. But take a look - market respected butterfly. That's your chance to move stop to b/e. IT's not neccesary to deal only with harmonic patterns - that could be classical patterns, candles, and others. But having pattern on your side always skews probablility in your favor and give you additional protection.

    So, probably we do not have any patterns right now, market at solid support after solid move down.
    Since weekly stop grabber plan has not been erased totall yet, now I suppose is better to watch - will market keep it or not. If it will keep it, then we should get some bullish hint - stop grabber, butterfly or something. If not - then, price should move below MPP I suppose...
    eur_d_07_12_12. eur_4h_07_12_12. eur_1h_07_12_12.
     
    #5 Sive Morten, Dec 1, 2012
    Last edited: Dec 7, 2012
  6. Kalgan

    Kalgan Private, 1st Class

    Joined:
    May 6, 2011
    Messages:
    34
    Likes Received:
    1
    Dear Sive,

    Thanks again for your amazing analysis and generosity...Hope you are well*

    Do I see a DRPO Sell on the 4hr chart as by the 3x3...?

    Regards
    Kalgan*
     
  7. FreddyFX

    FreddyFX Sergeant

    Joined:
    Oct 3, 2007
    Messages:
    340
    Likes Received:
    130
    I am still holding my shorts, but slowly getting the feeling I am on the wrong side of the market, so studying this analysis with double of my normal attention !!

    Enjoy the weekend, Sive !!!
     
  8. Kalgan

    Kalgan Private, 1st Class

    Joined:
    May 6, 2011
    Messages:
    34
    Likes Received:
    1
    I have shorts on too from the top and agree with Sive...If we see some strong down bars we may be able to hold them for a while...

    If not then we need to remain flexible*

    KR*
     
  9. voronovich

    voronovich Recruit

    Joined:
    Nov 30, 2012
    Messages:
    4
    Likes Received:
    0
    Dear Sive,

    Thanks.
     
  10. Johan Andersson

    Johan Andersson Private

    Joined:
    Oct 9, 2011
    Messages:
    10
    Likes Received:
    0
    Hi Sive, I have often wondered what setting you use on your MACD. Right now you say the monthly MACD is bullish,
    however the with the setting I use 12,26,9 that is 12EMA, 26EMA and 9 for signal line, trend is still bearish, though
    a cross is close. This is the standard setting I presume, I haven't pondered on different settings though I did use a
    faster setting at a time.
     

Share This Page