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FOREX PRO WEEKLY, December 04-08, 2017

Discussion in 'Sive Morten- Currencies and Gold Video Analysis' started by Sive Morten, Dec 2, 2017.

  1. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

    Aug 28, 2009
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    (Reuters) - The dollar reversed course to drop sharply against a basket of currencies on Friday, after an ABC News report that Michael Flynn, former national security adviser to President Donald Trump, is prepared to testify that Trump directed him to make contact with Russians when he was a presidential candidate.

    Reuters has not verified the ABC News report, which cited a Flynn confidant.

    Flynn was charged with lying to the FBI, according to court documents released on Friday, in an escalation of an investigation into alleged ties to Russia that has cast a cloud over Trump’s administration.

    The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, was down 0.44 percent to 92.641. The index rose as high as 93.248, earlier in the session.

    Proposed Tax Cuts Keep US Business and Consumer Sentiment High in October
    by Fathom Consulting

    Our US Economic Sentiment Indicator (US ESI) slipped from 6.0% to 5.8% in October, but official real GDP growth is unlikely to be this strong in Q4.

    The rate of economic growth implied by our US ESI, which distills information from numerous consumer and business surveys, has exceeded real GDP growth in each of the last four quarters. This is likely to continue for a fifth quarter in 2017 Q4, with real GDP growth likely to be closer to 4.0% (annualized). The prospect of large corporate tax cuts, as well as the global economic upswing, are keeping businesses confident. Consumer confidence has also been buoyed by the prospect of income tax cuts and a strong labor market.

    COT Report

    On CFTC data we have two important details. First is, EUR still keeps extreme net long position with high levels of traders involving in process, as open interest also stands rather high. As we said many times before - this is preparation for collapse. And as higher open interest is as stronger collapse will be.
    Second issue - interesting data in last three weeks. Take a look that last week net long position has increased while open interest dropped - definitely some shorts were closed, but this week we see opposite action - shorts are back... Now we need to get some tendency of shorts growing here and simultaneous appearing of bearish reversal pattern. In fact we already are watching for DRPO "Sell" on weekly chart.


    Today, guys, our report mostly is dedicated to EUR, but we would like to take a look at it through the prism of Dollar Index (DXY) by two reasons. First - we mostly have discussed EUR intraday situation just yesterday, second - some moments DXY shows better.


    Today, guys, we mostly will be interested in two last month of action. Our long term view and detailed analysis of Dollar Index you could find in previous research.

    Major conclusion that we've made last time was about upside retracement. It should be deep, and probably will be triggered by Fed hawkish policy in 2018.

    On monthly chart we have two technical issues that suggest reasonable bounce up within few months. They are - DiNapoli bullish "Stretch" pattern, as price has reached K-support at monthly OS. But it is mostly worked out already, as DOSC has reached "0" level.
    Second one is bearish reversal swing which has more fundamental background. As upside momentum is still here, deep retracement could be triggered.
    But this is only on first stage. Result of this bounce could lead to appearing of huge H&S pattern on monthly chart in 2018. And here is major tricky moment stands. From one side, we have rather hawkish Fed policy and good stats, that, theoretically should lead to bullish sentiment on the market and upside breakout of widening triangle here, on monthly chart. But from the other side, we see traders reaction that have closed longs, which means that now they are more believe in H&S and bearish reversal here.

    Here is CFTC Dollar index chart - commercials (hedgers) have closed big shorts positions in May. These positions usually stand against anticipated price action. It means that they do not believe much in dollar appreciation in nearest time. Simultaneously large amount of speculative long were closed (blue bars). Overall possession in Dollar has decreased.
    Since positions have been closed in May - speculative (non-commercial, blue bars), short position slightly increased which indicates short-term bearish sentiment on the market.

    Thus, It seems that 101 level will be clue to solution - if DXY will start to break through it - H&S pattern will be vanished and market sentiment could start to change. This is most important level for long-term traders.
    But for us, major conclusion is expectation of upside action in nearest few months here.

    After this introduction, let's focus on our particular subject - last two monthly candles. In fact, guys, we've got bearish engulfing here. And it seems, before final upside reversal will happen, we should get minor downside action back to previous lows around 90.65-91.0 area. Some deep retracement after first bounce up from K-support and trend line.


    On weekly chart this leads us the same major pattern as on EUR - DRPO "Buy". To be honest, guys, on EUR potential DRPO pattern looks purely. Here, we have more DRPO LAL (Look-alike) rather than pure DRPO.

    This is because we use absolute high as starting point of the thrust, while real thrust has started slightly lower, around 100.30 area. If we will use this point - then DXY already has tested 3/8 resistance that should not happen when you're dealing with DRPO. That's why we call this scenario as LAL.

    EUR, in turn, shows a bit different action, although shape is the same. There price keeps pure DRPO setup.

    As on DXY as on EUR DRPO has not been confirmed yet. We need just two details to be completed still - some deeper downside action first and upside reversal and close above 3x3 DMA second. This is here, on DXY. On EUR there should be mirror action, as we have DRPO "Sell" there.

    As and if DRPO "Buy" will be confirmed and start to work - action somewhere to 98-100 should happen to keep harmony of potential H&S pattern here.


    Now we're coming to most interesting thing here. So, we've estimated above that DXY should show deeper action, but now major question is - how this will happen.

    As usual we could get different scenarios, and key to understanding will depend on price action inside big red circle. Major question here is - whether deep upside retracement will happen or not.

    On DXY chart you can see reason, why we've talked about deep retracement on EUR before upside continuation. Dollar index moves a bit faster and it almost has completed AB-CD target that we're yet waiting on EUR. Besides, while EUR already has broken all Fib levels, here - DXY stands at major 5/8 Fib support and daily OS.

    First upside reaction has taken the shape of morning star pattern, which hints on upside continuation and some kind of AB-CD action on intraday charts. Because morning star is the same type of pattern as engulfing.

    Besides, monthly engulfing also suggests some retracement back inside it. This action happens not always but as a rule it does.

    So, our first scenario suggests another leg up somewhere to 93.60-93.80 area before final downside reversal will happen. Picture of this setup you will see below, on intraday charts.

    Second scenario - direct downside action. This also could happen by monthly bearish engulfing. In this case, price just will continue with existed AB-CD right to an area of 1.618 target, or, to 91.75 area if butterfly "Buy" will be formed in red circle.

    But we treat this scenario as less probable. It is too many technical issues stand in favor of upside bounce


    Here is setup that we see as most probable in current technical circumstances. If we our ab-cd action up will happen, we could get perfect pattern to short right at the top of H&S pattern - "222" Sell. Target in this case will stand around 91.20 - large H&S AB=CD target.

    It is interesting that it pips-to-pips coincides with 1.618 daily AB-CD of the first scenario...

    There is only uncertainty - length of cd leg, whether it will be equal to ab, or slightly greater as it is shown on the chart.

    Scalp traders potentially could watch for "222' Buy on hourly chart as well, which also could take a shape of double bottom. But be aware of its mutation to butterfly as daily AB-CD target has not been hit slightly, for a few pips. And 4-hour upside action could start by butterfly...


    Dollar now brings a riddle about long term perspective, as some contradiction exists between massive longs closing and positive perspective of Fed fund rate. As Dollar index is a core for many other currencies and assets this riddle will spread across the board. And this is the riddle that we have to resolve. Right now we provide just one possible explanation, but it doesn't mean that its unique.

    Now we suggest that all these factors point on upside action as deep retracement but not as upside trend continuation.

    In shorter term perspective, we mostly will focus on downside reversal and patterns that will stand around it. As we come closer to Fed December meeting - downside action should be completed within 1-2 weeks. Then DRPO as on EUR as on DXY should be triggered (or fail :rolleyes:)

    The technical portion of Sive's analysis owes a great deal to Joe DiNapoli's methods, and uses a number of Joe's proprietary indicators. Please note that Sive's analysis is his own view of the market and is not endorsed by Joe DiNapoli or any related companies.
  2. shahsavari

    shahsavari Private, 1st Class

    Feb 9, 2012
    Likes Received:
    Thanks a lot
    #2 shahsavari, Dec 2, 2017
    Lasted edited by : Dec 3, 2017
    Sive Morten likes this.
  3. robertukas98

    robertukas98 Recruit

    Feb 7, 2011
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    Nice analysis Sive! Thank you again! :D
    Sive Morten likes this.
  4. BeeKay8

    BeeKay8 Sergeant

    Jan 8, 2012
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    Hey Sive,

    Long time no talk and I hope you have been doing well.

    I have still been reading your analysis religiously and just want to let you know how much we all appreciate it.

    On a side note and if I may, could you please speak a little bit about cryptocurrencies? As someone who is so knowledgeable in finance and how money works, I was hoping you could go off topic a bit and speak a little bit on how you personally feel about cryptocurrencies.

    I am personally extremely skeptical and have never invested in it. A lot of my friends who know nothing about finance or have ever invested have started investing in various cryptocurrencies with success. Some have even doubled their money in a matter of weeks. I think this is too good to be true and I am not tempted in anyway to invest in it as I believe it is a bubble.

    I would just like your personal opinion on this matter. I am not looking to invest or asking for investment advice. Just your personal opinion, if possible.

    Thank you!
    Lolly Tripathy and Sive Morten like this.
  5. RahmanSL

    RahmanSL Major

    Jan 16, 2010
    Likes Received:
    As usual, Sive, your analysis is well thought out and insightful.

    My thoughts are that the EUR/USD will strengthen with the expected FED's rate hike in Dec (even though market has already priced in the event) and then, due to the x'mas & New Year holidays, some large capital market players will probably play the thin market to move the EUR/USD to the 1.2 levels.
    I would attribute these market players to the EZ governments (and perhaps the US too) making money from the forex market to make payrolls and other expenses :D

    All the best Sive!
    Lolly Tripathy and Sive Morten like this.
  6. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

    Aug 28, 2009
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    Good morning,

    (Reuters) - The dollar dipped on Tuesday, as investors waited to see how the next step of the U.S. tax reform legislation proceeds rather than extend the rise made by the dollar at the start of the week following the U.S. Senate’s approval of the tax bill.

    The Senate must now reconcile its version of the bill with legislation passed by the House of Representatives.

    “The upcoming negotiations on the bill between the Senate and the House are likely to decide the dollar’s direction this week,” said Shin Kadota, senior strategist at Barclays in Tokyo.

    The dollar index against a basket of six major currencies eased 0.15 percent to 93.050 .DXY after gaining about 0.3 percent the previous day.

    The euro was a shade higher at $1.1874 after losing 0.3 percent overnight.

    The dollar nudged up to 112.550 yen , but remained well off the 2-1/2-week high of 113.090 struck on Monday.

    The House of Representatives voted late on Monday to set up formal negotiations with the Senate, bringing the final bill a step closer. But deliberations could still take weeks to complete.

    “A large portion of the enthusiasm for the tax bill passing the Senate had already been factored in when (Republican Senator John) McCain gave his endorsement last week,” said Kadota, explaining the dollar’s loss of momentum.

    The pound was 0.1 percent lower at $1.3465 after wide swings the previous day.

    Sterling initially spiked to $1.3538 on Monday on hopes that divorce talks between Britain and the European Union would make headway.

    But it slumped to $1.3415 after European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and British Prime Minister Theresa May failed to reach an agreement with Irish border issues proving a sticking point.

    Sterling had reached a two-month high of $1.3550 on Friday on expectations that Brexit negotiations were beginning to bear fruit.

    “The pound has become a vehicle for speculators, with fundamentals taking a back seat,” said Masashi Murata, senior currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman.

    “The dollar is not an easy buy when long-term Treasury yields are stuck below 2.4 percent under the current yield curve flattening. Under such conditions, speculators’ flows tend to make their way to the pound, rather than the euro or yen, as the Bank of England is slightly more hawkish than its European and Japanese counterparts.”

    The 10-year Treasury yield reached a seven-month high just below 2.50 percent in late October but has been stuck below that level since, firmly capped with the U.S. yield curve reaching its flattest in a decade.

    The Australian dollar rallied on upbeat domestic retail sales data, pulling along the New Zealand dollar in its wake.

    The Australian dollar was 0.6 percent higher at $0.7639 after data showed strong retail sales in October after months of lukewarm demand.

    With its rally well under way, the Aussie showed little reaction to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s well anticipated decision to keep its cash rate at a record low of 1.5 percent.

    The New Zealand dollar firmed 0.45 percent to $0.6890, paring the previous day's losses.

    So, our suggestion of dollar surge was correct, although we've expected a bit stronger appreciation. Still, it could happen. On EUR we're mostly interested how market will reach our 1.2020 AB=CD target. Daily chart shows one possible scenario - butterfly "Sell", if market will continue upward action immediately.
    Second pattern that could give us more confidence with direct action to 1.2020 is bullish grabber that could be formed today:

    On 4-hour chart we have another possible scenario that mostly is the same to DXY that we've talked about in weekend. This is "222" Buy:

    So, which one to choose and how undertsand what scenario will prevail. Most simple way is to wait till tomorrow. If daily grabber indeed will be formed - this will increase chances on upside continuation. But waiting could give worse entry level.
    That's why we could use hourly chart. Here, actually we have "222" Buy and small reverse H&S pattern is forming. This is the key. If you want to go long - you could try to use this pattern and trade against 1.18 lows - not large risk, right? If H&S will work - we should get action at least to 1.19 and Gap closing. This will let us to move stops on b/e. But EUR could re-establish upside action to 1.2020 as well.
    If market will drop below 1.18 and H&S will fail - then we will wait for "222" Buy on 4-hour chart.
  7. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

    Aug 28, 2009
    Likes Received:
    Good morning,

    (Reuters) - The dollar edged down on Wednesday, as concerns about a possible U.S. government shutdown offset optimism about progress on tax reform legislation, while the Australian dollar weakened after economic data showed worrying signs for growth.

    The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, inched 0.1 percent lower to 93.297.

    The euro was steady on the day at $1.1828, while the dollar edged down 0.1 percent against its Japanese counterpart to 112.38 yen.

    Sterling, already under pressure amid evaporating hopes for a near-term Brexit accord, dipped on Wednesday after a report of a failed plot to kill UK Prime Minister Theresa May. Sky News said on Tuesday, citing sources, that a plan to assassinate May had been foiled.

    In the U.S., the Republican-controlled House of Representatives voted on Monday to go to conference with the Senate to begin formal negotiations on the tax bill, with the Republican-led Senate expected to hold a similar conference vote later this week.

    But in the meantime, the possibility of a U.S. government shutdown looms, if lawmakers fail to reach a budget accord this week. Government funding is set to expire Friday.

    “I think they will avoid a shutdown, but there is concern about that,” said Masafumi Yamamoto, chief forex strategist at Mizuho Securities in Tokyo.

    “If a tax cut deal can be reached by the year-end, it should be positive for the dollar and the risk-taking behaviour of global investors, but until then, markets are in a wait-and-see-mode,” he said.

    Expectations of higher U.S. rates underpinned the dollar, though a flattening U.S. Treasury yield curve kept investors’ hopes in check.

    Fed funds futures prices show that investors expect the U.S. central bank to hike rates at its Dec. 12-13 meeting, with futures prices showing a zero percent chance of rates remaining at their current level of 1.00-1.25 percent.

    The two-year Treasury yield probed nine-year highs on Tuesday, but concerns about the tax bill and budget impasse pressured yields on longer maturities.

    The pound was down 0.2 percent at $1.3426, though it remained above its overnight low of $1.3370.

    Prime Minister May’s failure to clinch a deal to open talks on post-Brexit free trade with the European Union after a tentative pact with Dublin to keep EU rules in Northern Ireland angered her allies in Belfast.

    “The pound is very sensitive to headline news about these political developments, which is keeping it in check,” said Kumiko Ishikawa, FX analyst at Sony Financial Holdings in Tokyo.

    The Australian dollar slipped 0.3 percent to $0.7585, within sight of its five-month low of $0.7532 plumbed on Nov. 21.

    Australian gross domestic product grew by 0.6 percent in the third quarter, slowing from the previous quarter’s rise of 0.9 percent and a hair short of market forecasts for a rise of 0.7 percent. Marked weakness in household spending cast a cloud over the outlook for growth.

    Bitcoin was up 3.8 percent at $12,102, after touching a record high of $12,134.

    So, today we have more clarity on EUR, at least yesterday's drop has erased chances on bullish grabber and early upside reversal. Now market stands around K-support area and we're waiting for completion of our major "222" Buy pattern here:

    On 4-hour chart market has not quite reached the AB-CD target. Thus, it means that another leg down could happen before everything will be done:

    On hourly chart we also have incompeted inner 1.618 AB-CD target that coincides with major AB-CD. Appearing of "222" Sell here confirms possible leg to 1.1790 area where real reversal could start:
  8. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

    Aug 28, 2009
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    Good morning,

    (Reuters) - The dollar edged up against peers on Thursday, shaking off earlier losses versus the yen, supported by signs that investors’ risk appetites were improving again and by optimism on U.S. tax reforms.

    The greenback was 0.1 percent higher at 112.380 yen after dropping by 0.25 percent overnight.

    The dollar had slipped against the yen after President Donald Trump on Wednesday recognised Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, imperilling Middle East peace efforts and upsetting Washington’s friends and foes alike.

    “The impact of the ‘risk off’ moves that weakened the dollar against the yen stemming from the Middle East developments appears to have been limited. It likely served as a pretext for speculators to cover some yen shorts,” said Yukio Ishizuki, senior currency strategist at Daiwa Securities in Tokyo.

    “We could still see participants try to sell the dollar on upcoming ‘risk off’ events. But the dollar is positioned to absorb much of the selling pressure, with many players poised to buy on dips,” he said.

    Dollar/yen on Thursday rose in line with a surge in Tokyo shares, which had slumped the previous day on Middle East concerns.

    But considering the Nikkei’s gains - the index was up more than 1 percent- the dollar’s rise versus the yen appeared limited, some observers noted.

    "The decoupling that has begun taking place between equities and currencies is one of the key market themes of 2017," said Daisuke Karakama, chief market economist at Mizuho Bank.

    U.S. currency rose to a two-week high against a basket of six major currencies as optimism towards U.S. lawmakers’ making progress on tax legislation grew. Upbeat U.S. private-sector employment data released on Wednesday also provided support.

    U.S. Senate Republicans agreed to talks with the House of Representatives on sweeping tax legislation on Wednesday, amid early signs that lawmakers could bridge their differences and agree on a final bill ahead of a self-imposed Dec. 22 deadline.

    The dollar index was little changed at 93.543 after rising to 93.650 overnight, its highest since Nov. 22.

    The euro was steady at $1.1803 after slipping 0.25 percent overnight, when it hit a two-week low of $1.1780.

    Bitcoin briefly soared to a record high of $14,095.00, continuing its surge from below $1,000 at the beginning of the year, despite questions about the cryptocurrency’s real value and worries about a dangerous bubble.

    Later, Bitcoin was down 0.25 percent at $13,590.01 at the Luxembourg-based Bitstamp exchange.

    The Canadian dollar nursed deep losses suffered overnight after the Bank of Canada held interest rates steady and showed enough caution to dampen expectations for a hike early next year.

    The loonie was effectively flat at C$0.9895 per dollar after retreating 0.8 percent the previous day.

    The Australian dollar, hit the previous day by weaker than expected local gross domestic product numbers, extended losses against the buoyant dollar.

    The Aussie was 0.2 percent lower at $0.7548.

    The New Zealand dollar held up for a while after showed that housing prices in the country jumped 6.4 percent in November.

    But the kiwi last traded at $0.6859, down 0.3 percent on the day.

    Sterling was down 0.1 percent at $1.3383 after touching a one-week low of $1.3358 overnight amid growing concerns that a Brexit deal may be unlikely before next week’s key EU summit. The immediate focus for the pound was on British Prime Minister Theresa May, who is expected to propose suggestions to Brexit negotiators to try to break an impasse on the issue of the Irish border.

    Sо guys, today is moment of truth for EUR. All preparation for upside continuation has been done. If EUR is bullish indeed - it should continue move up. Downside breakout will be not natural for bullish market by some reasons. First - EUR stands at K-support and Agreement, it has sufficient strength to keep bulllish market. Second - EUR has not completed major AB=CD target @1.2020 area. Turning to deep retracement or even reversal prior reaching major target is not normal behavior. If still, downside reversal will happen - this will tell that bullish sentiment on EUR has been broken.

    On 4-chart we see our major "222' Buy pattern in place, as price has completed inner AB=CD target:

    On hourly chart smaller 1.618 AB-CD also has been completed and now market is forming small "222" Buy right at the bottom. Risk stands minimal here as trade could be done right against the lows. If some targets have not been met, I would say that we could get butterfly. But as all targets are hit - no necessity to form new lows and "222" is propriate pattern here. Nice bullish divergence stands here as well

    Thus, I did everything that I could - the rest stands up to you. This is most difficult step - decision :D
  9. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

    Aug 28, 2009
    Likes Received:
    Hi Brandon (sorry for delay, was busy a bit...)
    I recall that once already talked about BTC... I do not see any problems for trading it for speculative purpose if you keep healthy money management and trading plan. If even it will turn to bubble blow - you will out with ordinary s/l order.

    Taking a broader view on BTC, you need try to estimate what gives the value to it. Why BTC costs as 10 Oz of gold and now even higher. What supports the demand for it and what is an intrinsic value of BTC?

    My opinion that BTC hardly could be treated as investment asset in traditional point of view, because it has no background. When we're speaking about traditional currency, we could speak about wealth, gold and currency reserves, political role and reputation of the contry. So some real assets stand behind and country with its government takes responsibility of currency stability. Who stands beyond BTC and who will guarantee its value? Who will responsible for collapse and who will get major damage from it? Nobody is responsible.

    What gives BTC its value - defnitely not some classical asset. Because BTC is not a material asset, in fact this is result of programme code (Bloc chain) that has generating algorithm based on downside geometrical progression. Mathematically it could expressed in Limit that tending to zero - this is amount of BTC.

    Some people tell that BTC costs money because they are limited, but money could be printed at any time. But this is cunning statement. BTC is limited, Lite coin is limited and another few dozens of crypto currencies are limited. But together they turn to unlimited mass of different crypto currencies. Besides, gold is also limited and some rare metals are even more limited but they cost 10 times cheaper than BTC. So, this could not be the reason of BTC value, but what?

    I think that uncontrolling and hidden transactions what really gives value to BTC. N. Maduro (Venezuela president) said recently that they will launch national crypto to avoid sanctions and limitations on transactions by EU and US banks. The same is about BTC.

    It is very difficult to accept some facts as "occasion" - for example starting of BTC futures trading in US, appearing Exchanges for trading BTC. These are steps to put BTC market under control. Why?
    Because BTC widely could be used as major currency of shadow economy. Not only by druglords but also by governents. For example, for illegal weapon delivery and trading, drug trading in industrial scales, paying for terror across the world etc. And nobody will be able to prove or estimate who is responsible for that where money has come frome etc. It's not a secret, for example that Afghanistan opium plantations are secured by US army. BTC is great tool for trading them.

    Now imagine the scale of these illegal operations. At the same time, as you understand, special forces and governments can't leave BTC market without control, they need to centralize it. Since they can't control Bloc chain directly, they could control major exchange flows through Exchanges, such as CME, ICE etc... But first they need to send big volumes on trading process, to make people habit to this.

    As this process just has started and overall volume of shadow economy is huge, I will not be surprise that BTC will cost $100K.
    But major collapse of bubble will happen as soon as some legal acts of financial control over BTC transactions willl appear - through banks.

    Some countries do not support free BTC turnover - that relatively confirms my suggestion. If it would carry no problems, why they do not allow this...
    Because this is real hazard for national security.
    FreddyFX and DevTrader like this.
  10. DevTrader

    DevTrader Private, 1st Class

    Jul 19, 2011
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    I was expecting your view on BTC and you delivers it. Thanks sive .
    In recent decades, I don’t think so there is any phenomenal speculation in any asset class( in % terms from 100 to 15k in few years)
    I am long on BTC since 6 months and holding it untill some bad news come. Though train has already left the station and waiting on platform doesn’t make sense and to catch running train is horrible idea. So be wise before doing any trade in BTC( forget about shorting it)
    I know money management is require but this is sort of very few opportunities where your money can multiply ( or destroy) in very short time but it’s depend on appetite of individual.
    This bubble will keep flying untill some rich economy intervene.(its doesn’t look in near future as EM economy doesn’t care about it and DM see no risk to economy yet)
    So all are prediction and calculations but that’s all we as traders do.

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