FOREX PRO WEEKLY, December 04-08, 2017
- Thread starter Sive Morten
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Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
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- 18,648
Hi, Georgeta,
managed to enter GBPUSD on railroad pattern on H1. I dont know the TP yet
Nice entry. There is solid background with GBP - just take a look at our recent update, or today's video...
Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
- Messages
- 18,648
Good morning,
(Reuters) - The dollar edged up on Friday, on track for a weekly gain against a basket of currencies, as the passage of a bill to temporarily extend U.S. government funding raised investors’ optimism that a tax reform bill would also pass.
The euro inched down 0.1 percent to $1.1766 , around its lowest levels since Nov. 22, as traders waited to see if British Prime Minister Theresa May has finally clinched an elusive deal with Irish and EU officials on how they would run their post-Brexit land border on the island of Ireland.
An agreement would remove the last obstacle for opening free-trade talks with the European Union. May is likely to meet European Union chief executive Jean-Claude Juncker before dawn in Brussels.
The euro was on track to shed 1.1 percent for the week, but is still up nearly 12 percent so far in 2017.
Forex traders were also awaiting the closely watched U.S. non-farm payrolls report later in the day, which is expected to show 200,000 new jobs were created in November, according to a Reuters poll.
The dollar index, which gauges the greenback against a basket of six major rivals, was up slightly on the day at 93.830, up 1 percent for the week. But it was still down 8.2 percent for a year plagued by U.S. policy uncertainty.
Removing one major stumbling block for the dollar on Friday, the U.S. Congress on Thursday passed legislation to temporarily fund the government through Dec. 22, beating a Friday midnight deadline. The bill will be sent to President Donald Trump to sign.
U.S. Senate Republicans agreed to talks with the House of Representatives on sweeping tax legislation on Wednesday, amid early signs that lawmakers could bridge their differences and agree on a final bill ahead of a self-imposed Dec. 22 deadline.
“The market action this week has mostly been drawing cues from Washington,” said Bill Northey, chief investment officer at the private client group of U.S. Bank in Helena, Montana.
“But from an economic perspective, as we start to look at the real economy, we will get one of the first ‘clean reads’ on employment,” he said, referring to a jobs report in which the impact of the year’s hurricanes is no longer a factor.
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week to 236,000, data showed on Thursday.
Fed funds futures prices show that investors expect the U.S. central bank to hike rates at its Dec. 12-13 meeting, with investors now focused on how many more hikes to expect in 2018.
“Speculators may think today is a good day to have dollar long positions, and buy the dollar on dips, ahead of the U.S. employment data, and with the Fed expected to hike next week,” said Masashi Murata, senior currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman.
Against its Japanese counterpart, the dollar was 0.2 percent higher at 113.33 yen, trading at its highest levels since mid-November and up 0.9 percent for the week. It was still down 3.2 percent for the year.
Investors had a muted reaction to upbeat Japanese economic readings on Friday, including revised data that showed the economy grew an annualized 2.5 percent, twice as fast as originally estimated in the third quarter, thanks to big gains in capital expenditure.
But regional sentiment got a lift from stronger-than-expected Chinese trade data showing exports surged 12.3 percent in November from a year earlier, more than double the forecast, while imports climbed almost 18 percent.
Bitcoin was down 5 percent on the Bitstamp exchange at $15,761.56, after notching a record high of $16,666.66 . It was up more than 45 percent for the week, as investors debated about whether the cryptocurrency was in a bubble that was about to burst.
Today guys, we will take a look as on GBP as on EUR. First is briefly on GBP - our "222" Buy on 4-hour chart has started perfectly, right from predefined level:
As bullish grabber has been formed on daily - this trade still has some upside potential, at least above previous tops, but also it could become real upside continuation:
On EUR, guys, situation is not as pleasant as on GBP, right? Our yesterday's setup has not worked, and it means that EUR stands under stronger pressure that it seems at first glance. Currently it could be political question of EU and Ireland border after Brexit procedure. Besides, today is NFP. So, by taking a look at daily chart - it seems that EUR could drop to next AB-CD target and Agreement area of 1.17:
Although "222" Buy on 4-hour chart has not been destroyed yet and theoretically it still could work - this choice is up to you, whether to close position or not. Personally I use the rule to exit if my context is not valid anymore. And now it is not valid. So I keep GBP, but I've closed the EUR.
But, as I've said - this is personal decision and depends on many factors - personality, money management, trading style etc...
(Reuters) - The dollar edged up on Friday, on track for a weekly gain against a basket of currencies, as the passage of a bill to temporarily extend U.S. government funding raised investors’ optimism that a tax reform bill would also pass.
The euro inched down 0.1 percent to $1.1766 , around its lowest levels since Nov. 22, as traders waited to see if British Prime Minister Theresa May has finally clinched an elusive deal with Irish and EU officials on how they would run their post-Brexit land border on the island of Ireland.
An agreement would remove the last obstacle for opening free-trade talks with the European Union. May is likely to meet European Union chief executive Jean-Claude Juncker before dawn in Brussels.
The euro was on track to shed 1.1 percent for the week, but is still up nearly 12 percent so far in 2017.
Forex traders were also awaiting the closely watched U.S. non-farm payrolls report later in the day, which is expected to show 200,000 new jobs were created in November, according to a Reuters poll.
The dollar index, which gauges the greenback against a basket of six major rivals, was up slightly on the day at 93.830, up 1 percent for the week. But it was still down 8.2 percent for a year plagued by U.S. policy uncertainty.
Removing one major stumbling block for the dollar on Friday, the U.S. Congress on Thursday passed legislation to temporarily fund the government through Dec. 22, beating a Friday midnight deadline. The bill will be sent to President Donald Trump to sign.
U.S. Senate Republicans agreed to talks with the House of Representatives on sweeping tax legislation on Wednesday, amid early signs that lawmakers could bridge their differences and agree on a final bill ahead of a self-imposed Dec. 22 deadline.
“The market action this week has mostly been drawing cues from Washington,” said Bill Northey, chief investment officer at the private client group of U.S. Bank in Helena, Montana.
“But from an economic perspective, as we start to look at the real economy, we will get one of the first ‘clean reads’ on employment,” he said, referring to a jobs report in which the impact of the year’s hurricanes is no longer a factor.
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week to 236,000, data showed on Thursday.
Fed funds futures prices show that investors expect the U.S. central bank to hike rates at its Dec. 12-13 meeting, with investors now focused on how many more hikes to expect in 2018.
“Speculators may think today is a good day to have dollar long positions, and buy the dollar on dips, ahead of the U.S. employment data, and with the Fed expected to hike next week,” said Masashi Murata, senior currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman.
Against its Japanese counterpart, the dollar was 0.2 percent higher at 113.33 yen, trading at its highest levels since mid-November and up 0.9 percent for the week. It was still down 3.2 percent for the year.
Investors had a muted reaction to upbeat Japanese economic readings on Friday, including revised data that showed the economy grew an annualized 2.5 percent, twice as fast as originally estimated in the third quarter, thanks to big gains in capital expenditure.
But regional sentiment got a lift from stronger-than-expected Chinese trade data showing exports surged 12.3 percent in November from a year earlier, more than double the forecast, while imports climbed almost 18 percent.
Bitcoin was down 5 percent on the Bitstamp exchange at $15,761.56, after notching a record high of $16,666.66 . It was up more than 45 percent for the week, as investors debated about whether the cryptocurrency was in a bubble that was about to burst.
Today guys, we will take a look as on GBP as on EUR. First is briefly on GBP - our "222" Buy on 4-hour chart has started perfectly, right from predefined level:
As bullish grabber has been formed on daily - this trade still has some upside potential, at least above previous tops, but also it could become real upside continuation:
On EUR, guys, situation is not as pleasant as on GBP, right? Our yesterday's setup has not worked, and it means that EUR stands under stronger pressure that it seems at first glance. Currently it could be political question of EU and Ireland border after Brexit procedure. Besides, today is NFP. So, by taking a look at daily chart - it seems that EUR could drop to next AB-CD target and Agreement area of 1.17:
Although "222" Buy on 4-hour chart has not been destroyed yet and theoretically it still could work - this choice is up to you, whether to close position or not. Personally I use the rule to exit if my context is not valid anymore. And now it is not valid. So I keep GBP, but I've closed the EUR.
But, as I've said - this is personal decision and depends on many factors - personality, money management, trading style etc...
Synchronicity
Sergeant
- Messages
- 182
Another Bitcoin risk that's not widely reported is the ability of the 'system' to handle all of the transactions when the bubble bursts. There was an interesting story recently about CryptoKitties causing problems with transactions on Ethereum (link below).
In essence, these CryptoKitties have become so popular that transactions involving them are swamping the Etherium system and slowing it down.
When a bubble bursts people see all of their virtual profits drop before their eyes and decide to liquidate - that causes the price to fall faster and more people try to liquidate. Unlike 'real' currencies the markets in virtual currencies are not regulated so there's nobody to try to step in to support or control what's happening.
If the system is swamped with sell orders and no buyers Bitcoin could easily go back under $1000 in a very short space of time - but it might be hours or days before all of the transactions are processed!
I congratulate DevTrader on his trade but if you are long and haven't taken some of the profits I'd seriously consider doing so. Bitcoin might hit 20, 40, 50,000 but it's likely to have a vicious drop along the way...
CryptoKitties story
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-42237162
In essence, these CryptoKitties have become so popular that transactions involving them are swamping the Etherium system and slowing it down.
When a bubble bursts people see all of their virtual profits drop before their eyes and decide to liquidate - that causes the price to fall faster and more people try to liquidate. Unlike 'real' currencies the markets in virtual currencies are not regulated so there's nobody to try to step in to support or control what's happening.
If the system is swamped with sell orders and no buyers Bitcoin could easily go back under $1000 in a very short space of time - but it might be hours or days before all of the transactions are processed!
I congratulate DevTrader on his trade but if you are long and haven't taken some of the profits I'd seriously consider doing so. Bitcoin might hit 20, 40, 50,000 but it's likely to have a vicious drop along the way...
CryptoKitties story
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-42237162
Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
- Messages
- 18,648
Thanks Michael, very interesting and important insight.
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