FOREX PRO Weekly December 05-09, 2011

[Sive Morten]

Monthly
Our long-term forecast, that assumes possible move to 1.15 area still holds. Monthly trend is bearish, and, in general, we can see downward move during November. Market stands neither at oversold nor at overbought, next support area is 1.2905-1.3040. Pay attention that as this target as next one around 1.15 area stands below previous lows. It means that these lows hardly will hold if market will reach them, of cause.
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Dear Sive ,

Your statement above that these lows will hardly hold if market will reach them... what do you mean by that ? Do you mean that if market will reach previous lows they will not support the price action but plunge to 1.15 area ? or you mean that if 1.15 is achieved the rebound is eminent ?

Dave

Hi Dave,
potential move to 1.15 follows from our long-term analysis (quarterly chart of dollar index), that still holds
Now, if you will build monthly Fib extensions, then you will see that all of them stands below previous lows - as 1.30 as 1.18. This is very common - when targets stand below extremes - these extremes have great probability to not hold.

 

[Sive Morten]

I just wondering how much do EU need to rescue all PIIGS?

Thanks and Best Regards

Well, I can't say for 100%, but Italy has 1.9 Trln in debt - this is greater than Portugal, Greece, Spain and Ireland all together. If we assume that Germany, France and other "old" Europe will not need rescue, then rest is Eastern Europe.
Applying some simple calculation, I suppose, that somewhere around 3-5 Trln. will be enough
Still, the core of solution - is ability to buyback problem bonds by ECB. If EU Government will not provide this ability, then, probably EUR will not hold, at least as we know it now.
Most probable scenario in this case is contracting of EU to former "old" area - ECU, and excluding other countries. Italy anyway will be saved. Currently such kind of views more and more are spreading across the Europe.
In fact they have to start the same procedure as Fed by its QE programs - printing money.

 

[Sive Morten]

Our Military school.

Dear Sive,

I was going through our Education chapters which you so kindly have made for our learning,and they are very good!!

I was also wandering that would it be worthwhile putting something on the Phcology of trading?.

As its always briefly managed but from my experience in learning how to become consistent with trading results its a MAJOR obstacle.
As i found that once i started to look a little deeper into this side,my results have improved from 30% to know almost 100%.

I also again take this opportunity to thank you for your great anyalis and the school.

I havent forgotten this time also to FELIX for providing us this service for free. Thank you to both of you for teaching us.


Best Regards

Asif

Hi Asif,
We will touch psychology a bit through the school, but we can't stay on it too long, because this is a really bottomless topic and there are a lot of books, dedicated to it.
Our task with the school is to give understanding of absolutely important blocks in trading framework and correct attitude to the process. School suggests that trader will continue to study. Although it has advances approach to technical analysis, in general we try to build it as simple as possible - some kind of Forex for Dammies, so that trader at any grade of experience will be able to find something interesting and useful. Newbie trader can use it as manual, I suppose.
Also the advantage of this school is that it is writing now - with modern market. MArkets are changing every time and now this process is very fast. There are many nuances and tricks of price action are discussed through the school.

 

[rashidin5178]

Well, I can't say for 100%, but Italy has 1.9 Trln in debt - this is greater than Portugal, Greece, Spain and Ireland all together. If we assume that Germany, France and other "old" Europe will not need rescue, then rest is Eastern Europe.
Applying some simple calculation, I suppose, that somewhere around 3-5 Trln. will be enough
Still, the core of solution - is ability to buyback problem bonds by ECB. If EU Government will not provide this ability, then, probably EUR will not hold, at least as we know it now.
Most probable scenario in this case is contracting of EU to former "old" area - ECU, and excluding other countries. Italy anyway will be saved. Currently such kind of views more and more are spreading across the Europe.
In fact they have to start the same procedure as Fed by its QE programs - printing money.

Thanks Sir for reply. So now market still wait and see whether EU governments are able to solve the problems or not? Furthermore I think the dateline is near, right?

Thanks and Best Regards

 

[rashidin5178]

Guys,

I think 1.3445 maybe will not hold based on current price action but I prefer to see 1.3468 as potential entry. Maybe I'm wrong. Anyone got any ideas?

Thanks and Best Regards

 

[Triantus Shango]

Guys,

I think 1.3445 maybe will not hold based on current price action but I prefer to see 1.3468 as potential entry. Maybe I'm wrong. Anyone got any ideas?

Thanks and Best Regards

well, all i know is that i am long and will feel much more confident once the 3465-71 level gives way. T/P = 3526. hopefully.

 

[rashidin5178]

well, all i know is that i am long and will feel much more confident once the 3465-71 level gives way. T/P = 3526. hopefully.

1.3468 is .618 resistance from the last swing down on H4. If this level can't hold, then I think bull is stronger at least for today. For me this is the last level to watch for sell signal today. By the way, do you familiar with 200 SMA particularly on M5?

Thanks and Best Regards.

 

[Triantus Shango]

1.3468 is .618 resistance from the last swing down on H4. If this level can't hold, then I think bull is stronger at least for today. For me this is the last level to watch for sell signal today. By the way, do you familiar with 200 SMA particularly on M5?

Thanks and Best Regards.

am not sure i would short right there but... anyway.... re. 200 SMA on M5, i pay no attention to MAs on shorter TFs. i barely pay attention to MAs on longer TFs... so i don't think i can be of any help re this.

 

[rashidin5178]

am not sure i would short right there but... anyway.... re. 200 SMA on M5, i pay no attention to MAs on shorter TFs. i barely pay attention to MAs on longer TFs... so i don't think i can be of any help re this.

The only reason I still want to short is due to momentum on previous down swing on H4. Maybe you're right, dude. Lets see.

By the way, I have long position from 1.3430 with 200 SMA scalping technique on M5. Just to try this technique. My tp 1.3467.

Thanks and Best Regards.

 

[MidnightRun]

Rashidin,
What is this 200SMA scalping technique? Buy above, sell below?
Thank you