FOREX PRO Weekly, December 06-10, 2010

[Joshnix]

9 AM and the market has failed to break resistance

Sive,
I am very new to Dinapoli although the technical analysis and connecting the Fibs in an ABCD fashion appeals to my engineering background. As of 9 AM the market has failed to break below the strong resistance @ 1.3200 with any substance. What is needed to confirm a a buying opportunity in the EUR/USD in a new uptrend. I have seen mention of displaced MAs though I am not sure whether to displace it forward or backwards. Any help or guidance from you is much appreciated.

 

[Sive Morten]

Sive,
I am very new to Dinapoli although the technical analysis and connecting the Fibs in an ABCD fashion appeals to my engineering background. As of 9 AM the market has failed to break below the strong resistance @ 1.3200 with any substance. What is needed to confirm a a buying opportunity in the EUR/USD in a new uptrend. I have seen mention of displaced MAs though I am not sure whether to displace it forward or backwards. Any help or guidance from you is much appreciated.

Hi Joshnix
1. It should be simple MA
2. It should displaced forward.

For directional signals DiNapoli uses 3-period SMA shifted forward for 3 periods. He calls it 3x3 (3 by 3 MA)

 

[Damian1987]

This is very good question pal, although I've answered on it a couple of time, since I work with FPA.
The simple answer is no way to fix it, because as you know forex is an OTC market and there is no single source of quotes. So, it's a bit tricky from this point of view to trade forex lower than weekly time frame

So, personally I think that when you'll make solid profit, the better way to trade is to shift to CME FX futures market. It's a bit more complex, but it worthy of it. The huge advantage of exchange traded market is quotes definition, because every tick is fixed in exchange data base...
Besides, clients assets are safer with exchange tradable market than on spot FOREX due to legislative rules of using segregate accounts by the brokers, etc...

Thanks for the quick reply mate!!! I've checked out CME group website and I couldn't find any reference to Dinapoli's indicators package. Are you sure CME provides Dinapoli's suite?? Coz if they don't I can't figure out how I could use the "correct" quotes of CME if I can't analyze them in their platform. Illumination please??

Thanks very much, you are great!

 

[Sive Morten]

Thanks for the quick reply mate!!! I've checked out CME group website and I couldn't find any reference to Dinapoli's indicators package. Are you sure CME provides Dinapoli's suite?? Coz if they don't I can't figure out how I could use the "correct" quotes of CME if I can't analyze them in their platform. Illumination please??

Thanks very much, you are great!

You're confusing DiNapoli indicators pack and futures trading
DiNapoli pack is not rely to only futures. It could be used at any liquid market - stocks, bonds etc.
CME is just and exchange where currencies are traded.
Other words, CME gives you quotes, and what kind of software will you use - this is up to you.
For expample - some broker gives you quotes on FOREX, but they do not depend on MT4 platform itself and what particular indicator do you use.

 

[Baletnik]

Good morning all,

Sive if you don't mind I'd like to ask you a question about EURUSD.

Yesterday morning we had pressure on 1.3200. First it pierced it just a little bit and pulled back and later it pierced it deeper to 1.3180 and pulled back again.

I wonder how you know when the real move actually starts. If you open the position too early, you can't be sure the move is actually happening but on the other hand when you wait and observe and you see with higher probability the move of the market is happening, you miss too much of the profits to achieve good reward for your risk.

Can you please give us some advice for that matter or describe how you solved this problem.

Thank you very much,
Baletnik

 

[Sive Morten]

Good morning all,

Sive if you don't mind I'd like to ask you a question about EURUSD.

Yesterday morning we had pressure on 1.3200. First it pierced it just a little bit and pulled back and later it pierced it deeper to 1.3180 and pulled back again.

I wonder how you know when the real move actually starts. If you open the position too early, you can't be sure the move is actually happening but on the other hand when you wait and observe and you see with higher probability the move of the market is happening, you miss too much of the profits to achieve good reward for your risk.

Can you please give us some advice for that matter or describe how you solved this problem.

Thank you very much,
Baletnik

Well, I expect this question. First, I just want to announce that today I will release the video in real-time how I've entered yesterday in our trade on EUR. And you will see what does it mean when I say "Look for buy signals here" " Enter on retracement" and so on.
Second let's move step by step:

I wonder how you know when the real move actually starts. If you open the position too early, you can't be sure the move is actually happening

You should enter the market after you'll see some signals. Yesterday this was a W&R or RRT. Only after that you can enter. You should not jump in blindly, just because this is the level of support or resitance and because Sive has talked about it
So, if you'll see the signal, that you usually use - then you take it. And you know in advance - where is your stop and what will happen if your signal will fail.

on the other hand when you wait and observe and you see with higher probability the move of the market is happening, you miss too much of the profits to achieve good reward for your risk.

If risk/reward is not attractive - you just should not to enter.
Answer on this part of question demands a lot of details. First, you should estimate your target and what time frame do you trade. For example, if you trade hourly charts and your target is based on this time frame, you may be see that move has started already, but you can wait for first ABCD retracement on 5 min chart to enter. Something like that.
I suggest you to watch the video of my yesterday's entering in this trade, so may be it will help you to better understand it.

 

[MidnightRun]

Sive,
Are you going (in addition to the video you mentioned in the previous post) to post you vision of the upcoming movement of any pair? (Incidentally, you are no longer holding any position in EU - I checked out your demo account with Alpari UK - no open positions).
Thank you

 

[Sive Morten]

Sive,
Are you going (in addition to the video you mentioned in the previous post) to post you vision of the upcoming movement of any pair?
Thank you

Hi MidnightRun,
I think that I'm not quite understand your question in part of upcoming movement...
Yesterday, I've just made a trade and decided to record it, just to show what I usually watch for, when enter the market. Because in recent time there are a lot of questions about that. People are confusing with my phrases such as "watch for buy/sell signals here" or " If market will show some signs of strength/weakness here", or "Enter on the retracement if market will move above some level" and so on. I hope that this video will help...

 

[Sive Morten]

EUR/USD Daily Update, Thu 09, December 2010

Good morning,
Yesterday market has confirmed our expectation and trading plan. Currently market stands above weekly pivot. The major question now is how to treat current move - does it just respection of strong support, or start of bull trend.

On daily chart we do not see anything really new. The next target if C point from ABC pattern will hold - daily confluence resistance and agreement at 1.3470 roughly.

Now let's shift to hourly chart. If you're bullish -the main thing that you do not want to see - if market will erase current swing up from 1.32 area. That is the answer - current swing up is abolutely tradable. It allows you to place tight stop. So if you're bullish you can enter on retracement around 15-min. Confluence support (see 15-min chart) with stops just below 5/8 Fib support at 15-min chart.
If market will take out the lows at 1.3180-1.32, this will be quite another tune, and it will mean that it was just a respection of strong support area in bear trend.
From the other side - if market will take out highs around monthly pivot 1.3418 - then we can count on further upmove.

 

[osasyankee]

Thanks Sive for the Analysis.