FOREX PRO Weekly December 12-16, 2011

channel analysis

I hope this is a valid channel analysis:

On H4 there is a down channel. There were two fake breakouts. After that, the price quickly reached lower border of the channel. Now we see a change in momentum because there is a strong up bar and engulfing. After the fake breakout the price did not reach the lower border and return to the upside. I wanted to buy at the 61.8 retracement but the price fell like a stone :mad:
I think the market will open with a gap up so I will buy after the gap filling.

Thanks again Mr. Morten!
 

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I hope this is a valid channel analysis:

On H4 there is a down channel. There were two fake breakouts. After that, the price quickly reached lower border of the channel. Now we see a change in momentum because there is a strong up bar and engulfing. After the fake breakout the price did not reach the lower border and return to the upside. I wanted to buy at the 61.8 retracement but the price fell like a stone :mad:
I think the market will open with a gap up so I will buy after the gap filling.

Thanks again Mr. Morten!

Hi Georgeta.

Please let me show you and other forumers an entry technique called "minesweeper A" wich you can find on Dinapoli's book. You will find attached in this post a 5-min chart of the same period that you are showing. You said "market fell like a stone", indeed. Market retraced not to .618 but even further at almost .786 . When is it safe to enter? Well, according to this technique , I would wait for an AB=CD move back up on a lower time frame. 4-hour or 1 -hour is context for buying the retracement. So I check 5-min chart for the formation of AB leg, once is created we draw a fib retracement of that leg (diagional blue line in the chart is AB leg) and we buy what would be C point of ABCD pattern with a max stop loss at point A. we can buy smaller .382 .618 retracement, it's a detail since you will get a nice entry anyways. What's most interesting is that normally , during BC leg, 5-min trend changes to bullish since price action at this point usually is above MACDP line (red line) giving us a better scenario for our long trade.
I think this is a safe way to enter a D-level that we think should hold, even if at first it look's like it won't.

5-min-eur-usd.jpg
 
Sive,

Thank you for sharing your expertise with us! Originally, I traded forex in 2003, and blew out my account (as did my friends) on faulty advice from "experts" whose seminars showed audiences how to use one small piece of technical analysis, and use that to "get rich quick". I decided to try Forex again, only this time with a very disciplined mind set, and test the advice from experts before going live. Long story short, your advice is "Golden"! After spending a number of months with practice accounts, I am now using a small ($1000) account, which I doubled in 5 weeks. You are the first source I go to when plannning my trading strategies for the day /week. I am very grateful!

In appreciation.
Ron


I think, most of successful traders were coming from bad bad failure stories. Burn out a couples of times of live account with decent dry in personal saving account, maybe don't have more options rather than make some loan from family, friends or even banks to get back to trade with suitable account - but this really bad failure experiences that educated and motivated them to become a successful trader with tremendous of account growing. At least these stories I heard from some of successful traders in my country if not all them. I hope one day we also can be a successful trader.
Thanks and Best Regards.
 
Thank you Dear Sive,

Have studied next weeks Plan and adjusted my trading accordingly.

I wanted to also ask that with December upon us when would you trade up to date wise please? as most of big guns start slowing for the Christmas holidays.

Thank you have as always a lovely weekend.

Asif

Thank Sive,

I have the same question as Asif.
What is your advice with regards to trading around/during the Holidays ?

Kind regards, BackSpace

Hi Guys,
well, it could be a bit different from one year to another, but most lack of activity comes, as you probably know, 25 december-01 january. Although financial year in many countries as in corporations very often ends at November 30, the activity decreasing from 1-25 december is not so significant. I suspect that summer is more deadly period, especially August, than December.
Taking into account current EU situation and reaching of US debt ceiling in 20s of December - investors will work to safe their money despite either they want or not.

and what about this news? if Soros doesn't believe it, then maybe ...

'Investor George Soros's family fund bought about $2bn of European bonds formerly owned by MF Global Holdings.... Soros' Italian-debt purchase is significant because it indicates that an investor considered to be one of the world's savviest has confidence that the country won't default on its debts, at least by the time these bonds mature in December 2012.

It is also something of a wager that a wider collapse of euro-zone finances will be averted. Italy has emerged as the centre of the financial storm engulfing Europe because, following bailouts of Greece and other nations, Italy is widely considered too big to save should it run out of funds to service its debts, though some on Wall Street view pessimism surrounding the country's finances as overdone.'

source: Corzine's loss may be Soros's gain

Hi Triantus,
Currently Europe, especially its population, that always lives very well - worthy and propsperous has to feed so called problem countries, or second-wave countries. As problem countries I mean those that have joined to previous ECU zone - Let's call it "old EU". Citizens of Germany, France and others propserious countries are not very fascinating that there taxes come abroad to support other countries. So that their prosperity now works on other people. This is well-known story.
If EU will fail - this will not be total break. They will return to "old EU". Italy is a 3d economy of EU, and 8th in the world - they will safe it anyway. They could leave Greece, Portugal, all Eastern Europe, but they definitely safe Spain and Italy.
Soros also knows it. So, his investments are very good, especially if he bought this bonds at current yield levels.

Sive,

Thank you for sharing your expertise with us! Originally, I traded forex in 2003, and blew out my account (as did my friends) on faulty advice from "experts" whose seminars showed audiences how to use one small piece of technical analysis, and use that to "get rich quick". I decided to try Forex again, only this time with a very disciplined mind set, and test the advice from experts before going live. Long story short, your advice is "Golden"! After spending a number of months with practice accounts, I am now using a small ($1000) account, which I doubled in 5 weeks. You are the first source I go to when plannning my trading strategies for the day /week. I am very grateful!

In appreciation.
Ron

Hi Ron,
I'm glad that this was useful for you - that is what we're working here for.

good point. i read that book too and would encourage anyone who is struggling to get a hold of it and process the info therein, meaning read and re-read it. it's basic psychology but it's KEY.

even so, risk management and understanding proper leverage is the other key. now when i see brokers offering up to 500:1 leverage with only USD 1,000 minimum in the beginner trader's account, i understand how wrong i was to get excited by such offers. that kind of leverage with only USD 1,000 is suicide. anyway, probably all the regulars on this forum know that. but if you are a newbie, try to understand it and you'll save yourselves a lot of pain.

anyways... good luck all.

By the way - there will be charter in Forex Military School, dedicated to this stuff. For example, there will be some interesting approaches how to estimate minimum required assets from volatility point of view. How to use leverage and to control them.
May be you know all this material, since there we will give just absolutely neccesary information. But after study it any could start to trade reasonably and avoid fiscal catastrophe.
 
georgeta

i also use MT4 (but for visualization only) but something is strange. your candles do not match mine at all. do you also trade SPOT? the curve is the same, but the individual candles OHLC is quite different. if you don't mind me asking, which broker provides you with this market data?
 
thanks damian. interesting. i do pretty much the same but with a completely different TI signals. minesweeper is simpler though, which is better. ;) the AB=CD bothers me though as i don't see it where most of you guys see this pattern. anyway... thanks for sharing.
 
I think, most of successful traders were coming from bad bad failure stories. Burn out a couples of times of live account with decent dry in personal saving account, maybe don't have more options rather than make some loan from family, friends or even banks to get back to trade with suitable account - but this really bad failure experiences that educated and motivated them to become a successful trader with tremendous of account growing. At least these stories I heard from some of successful traders in my country if not all them. I hope one day we also can be a successful trader.
Thanks and Best Regards.

I am one of those stories friend blew out my account 3 times amounting to £30,000 and had given up trading.

But after a 2 year break educated and learned the phyocogy behind this business and AS ARNIE WOULD SAY I AM BACK!!! and trading as a living very consistently.

As i think our friend Triantus mentioned most important aspect is RISK MANAGEMENT and MIND SET.

I wish all the best in your trading career Rashdin.

Asif
 
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