FOREX PRO Weekly December 12-16, 2011

Triantus Shango

Sergeant Major
Messages
1,372
so let's see if i understand this.... because on H1 price is above the red line and on H4, MACD blue line was about to cross the red signal line, incl. that price was at 161.8% SPPT, that was enough to conclude market turned bullish on H4?

but MACD on H4, the blue line has not crossed the red line on your chart. shouldn't it cross first, before we can conclude market has become bullish?

and when you refer to 'market mechanics', do you mean the recent price behavior dropping so much, and seeming to find some SPPT at a significant level plus the above mentioned signs, all that is enough to conclude market is turning bullish?
 

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
12,880
so let's see if i understand this.... because on H1 price is above the red line and on H4, MACD blue line was about to cross the red signal line, incl. that price was at 161.8% SPPT, that was enough to conclude market turned bullish on H4?

but MACD on H4, the blue line has not crossed the red line on your chart. shouldn't it cross first, before we can conclude market has become bullish?

and when you refer to 'market mechanics', do you mean the recent price behavior dropping so much, and seeming to find some SPPT at a significant level plus the above mentioned signs, all that is enough to conclude market is turning bullish?
Triantus,
on 4-hour time frame lines have crossed - that's why I've marked them with circle. This was confirmed bullish trend already.
Market mechanics suggests not translating of indicators but mostly price action understanding - things that I've told about hitting target by new low, force to enter breakout traders and catch them in trap, etc.
All in all - this is a probability question. if you trade intraday - these nuances could form your context that couldn't be seen by the others.
Will it be sufficient to treat it as bullish context or not - this is very personal question (if it could be treated as bullish context at all in overall daily bearish picture). There are just signs that tell about possible trap. You should not neccesary trade it, I just want to share with you - something happens here, so retracement is possible.
 

georgeta

Sergeant
Messages
157
AUD

Hello Mr. Morten!
I do not want to waist much of your time with detailed analysis. Only 2 things:
1. Is it a triangle on weekly?
2. The Bearish dynamic pressure and SG are they suppose to drive the price to a breakout to the downside?
Thank you!
 

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Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
12,880
EUR/USD Daily Update, Fri 16, December 2011

Hello, friends,
there is not much to comment today. On daily time frame we see inside trading session, thoughts are the same - retracement could proceed a bit more, but also could reverse at any moment. For bears will be perfect is it will stop at 1.3161 - previous low on daily time frame (I have a bit different quotes today, since March contract is leading now).

On 4 hour chart there is nothing new. Trend holds bullish

Hourly chart gives us some more stop grabbers and some Fib extensions. First level to watch is Agreement around 1.3075, next one is 1.3140 - K-resistance and Agreement.
If you trade this on a long side - use trailing stop, since this is very choppy price action that could finish at any time, and downward continuation usually strong. Still, very probable that market could proceed a bit higher.

Will it move above 1.3140 - its difficult to say, because there is no acceleration currently with it's move. If this will continue as it is now - hardly we can expect this.
 

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Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
12,880
Hello Mr. Morten!
I do not want to waist much of your time with detailed analysis. Only 2 things:
1. Is it a triangle on weekly?
2. The Bearish dynamic pressure and SG are they suppose to drive the price to a breakout to the downside?
Thank you!
Hi Georgeta,
1. Yes
2. There actually was bullish stop grabber, but I do not like this kind of them. besides, it was cancelled already by price action.

I agree that market probably continue move down, but mostly because market at major AB=CD target at monthly chart. Second, fundamentally due overall expectations about USD strength.
Also, take a look at weekly initial downward AB=CD - market has accelerated directly to 1.0 extension. Currently is retracement after that - next target is 1.618.
 

Triantus Shango

Sergeant Major
Messages
1,372
sive, guys... if you have the time, please listen to this and read this: what is your take on this? is she hysterical or is she correct to say that it'll take a miracle to go past christmas without a major financial blow-up?

here are the links:

http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2011-1201-1.mp3 (source: Ann Barnhardt: The Entire Futures/Options Market Has Been Destroyed by the MF Global Collapse | James J Puplava CFP | FINANCIAL SENSE)

MF Global: The SERIOUS Issues Reach Mainstream Media: http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=198790
 
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Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
12,880
sive, guys... if you have the time, please listen to this and read this: what is your take on this? is she hysterical or is she correct to say that it'll take a miracle to go past christmas without a major financial blow-up?

here are the links:

http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2011-1201-1.mp3 (source: Ann Barnhardt: The Entire Futures/Options Market Has Been Destroyed by the MF Global Collapse | James J Puplava CFP | FINANCIAL SENSE)

MF Global: The SERIOUS Issues Reach Mainstream Media: MF Global: The SERIOUS Issues Reach Mainstream Media in [Market-Ticker]
I might say that this histery is exacerbated a bit. The point is US law of customers protection - one of the best in the world, although not perfect. With MF Global there are some problems exist:
1. MFG is 7th largest broker in the world;
2. There was found shortfall in customer assets on account ~ 10%;
3. Overall situation is not good for futures market - it is not suggest growing trust to it...
Meantime, also note that SIPC provide as much as 500 K$ per account to compensate shortfall.
72% of the assets already have been returned to customers.
If you want to avoid this situation in the future - choose only pure brokerage firms, that can't hold their own positions. Second, do not place more than 500k USD on each account. If you have a lot of money - think about Exchange membership, or find personal pit broker.
It's not so awful.
 

rashidin5178

Sergeant
Messages
244
Guys,
I just quote this from forextraders.com. You can search for yourself if need further details. This story provide us real learning oppurtunities of good capital mgt. Be advice, don't take the bad thing from this story. Happy learning.:)

At the tender age of 14, Jesse Livermore saw the inside of Paine Weber & Company for the first time. As a lowly clerk in 1891, his job consisted in transcribing stock prices from ticker tape to an actual board. Guessing on various trades’ profitability on intuition, he began betting on actual stock trades, and at the age of 15 he earned his first $1,000.

Jesse Livermore eventually left Paine Weber but continued to bet on stocks. By age 20 he managed to earn $10,000. When at the age of 21 he joined the New York Stock Exchange, however, he was not nearly as profitable trading stocks as he was betting on them. By the age of 22 he lost all of his money and had to request a loan to continue trading. At the age of 23 he started trading with $50,000 and at the end lost it all. Livermore blames the slow speed of the ticker for his fiscal demise.

Over the course of the year, Jesse Livermore learned to rely more on his hunches than the ticker tape, and through a shrewd short sale in 1907 he makes $1 million. By 1908 he is once again broke. After a bankruptcy in 1914, Livermore returns to trading and in 1916 amasses $3 million. He continues trading and in 1929 once again anticipates the market and sells short, making a huge profit of $100 million, yet in 1934 he is bankrupt for a second time.
 
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