FOREX PRO WEEKLY, December 13-17, 2010

King Midas

Private
Sive:

Thanks for the analysis and insights. I appreciate it so much.

At present, the market is bouncing off of the 1.3450-1.3460 area. It apparently is not getting through this area and is being resisted. Retracement to the downside has not happened prior to reaching the current area. Does this indicate probability of bearish condition in near term?
:)
 

Baletnik

Recruit
Hello,

it seems Sive did it again. With that psychic powers of yours can you tell us who will win Football WC in 2014? :)

I was thinking the first target of this move should be weekly pivot resistance 1 at around 1.3380 but recent good US data made me question if this could tip the scale on a side of the bear? Could this make an impact on FOMC statement that we expect today and a larger move down could begin?

It's just a tought. Maybe I'm just simplifying things and see what I want...

Regards
 

ALF

Private, 1st Class
Very dynamic Tueday

Will the WR1 area (1.3370) hold the market? Any ideas..........
 

ochills

Master Sergeant
Sensational Analysis

thank again sive .
Your analysis is incredible and sensational.
Thanks to Felix and all FPA staffs and members.
 

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
EUR/USD Daily Update, Wed 15, December 2010

Hello everybody,
EUR has shown price action that we've discussed here. Now the major question however - does it just retracement from recent swing up, or continuation of larger swing down.

To answer on this quest we have to watch for market response at current area 1.3290-1.33. This is daily Confluence support and hourly Agreement. 1.3270 is a weekly pivot point. So this area is a crucial for further move.
If bulls are still control the market - then this area should hold. If market will fail there - it will tell us something different. I think that although hourly 1.618expansion is just below at 1.3219, market in the case of breakout should reach weekly pivot support at 1.3122.

Also take a look at daily larger ABC-top. 0.618 target from it at 1.2996 - that coincides with the target of our hourly butterfly "Sell" pattern.

That's being said. If you're bearish - this is not an area to establish any short positions - wait for some bounce from this support, then you can enter with the stops just above the highs. When market will test it again - move stops to breakeven and watch the movie.
If you're bullish - wait for buy signals around this area of Confluence support - if you'll see some you can enter with stops just below weekly pivot. If market will bounce from this area - so as for bears move stops to b/e.
If market will move below weekly pivot - don't be Long any longer.
In general it's a tricky stuff to trade Confluences...
 

Attachments

rasto007

Private, 1st Class
Thanks Sive for the effort and knowledge you put in the analysis. It is excellent. We were waiting for the market to hit that 1.3470 confluence for several weeks. Finally it came. With that stop grabber at such a very strong confluence, it became so clear that I was afraid that everybody sees it and it will make the setup not work. Made good pips on it though. Exited at 1.3333, at .618 of daily ABC. Why would you think trading confluences is tricky?

Rasto
 

ALF

Private, 1st Class
WPP 1.3370 was broken, but....

Hi Sive,

We made 100 pips above 1.32-33 area (Daily Confluence support and hourly Agreement)but, later drop down and WPP 1.3270 was broken.

Currently - 1.3250. Which scenario should be in charge in this case?

Thanks!



Hello everybody,
EUR has shown price action that we've discussed here. Now the major question however - does it just retracement from recent swing up, or continuation of larger swing down.

To answer on this quest we have to watch for market response at current area 1.3290-1.33. This is daily Confluence support and hourly Agreement. 1.3270 is a weekly pivot point. So this area is a crucial for further move.
If bulls are still control the market - then this area should hold. If market will fail there - it will tell us something different. I think that although hourly 1.618expansion is just below at 1.3219, market in the case of breakout should reach weekly pivot support at 1.3122.

Also take a look at daily larger ABC-top. 0.618 target from it at 1.2996 - that coincides with the target of our hourly butterfly "Sell" pattern.

That's being said. If you're bearish - this is not an area to establish any short positions - wait for some bounce from this support, then you can enter with the stops just above the highs. When market will test it again - move stops to breakeven and watch the movie.
If you're bullish - wait for buy signals around this area of Confluence support - if you'll see some you can enter with stops just below weekly pivot. If market will bounce from this area - so as for bears move stops to b/e.
If market will move below weekly pivot - don't be Long any longer.
In general it's a tricky stuff to trade Confluences...
 

Ahmed El-Shazly

Private, 1st Class
DRepo

Good Morning Sive-
First of all I would like to thank you so much for the help and the knowledge sharing you provide.
I have a question regarding Drepo. What is the different between DRepo sell for instance and ABC wave with retracement? I know when DRepo happen, but I am not able to find the use of it especially that when I ably ABC even for non DRepo patterns it works perfectly.
Also, most of the cases DRepo confirmation (close below 3DMA in case of a sell) already achieves at least .681 and 1 target!
If I apply all specif requirement for a DRepo as too much thrust, close below 3DMA with mimunim count of bars then close up again (better if it is higher than the previous high), then a quick close below 3DMA again ONLY TO ACHIEVE .618 OR 1 RETRACEMENT!. If I only apply normal ABC wave structure with its target it will be simpler and give same results!
Can you please advise me!
 

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Good Morning Sive-
First of all I would like to thank you so much for the help and the knowledge sharing you provide.
I have a question regarding Drepo. What is the different between DRepo sell for instance and ABC wave with retracement? I know when DRepo happen, but I am not able to find the use of it especially that when I ably ABC even for non DRepo patterns it works perfectly.
Also, most of the cases DRepo confirmation (close below 3DMA in case of a sell) already achieves at least .681 and 1 target!
If I apply all specif requirement for a DRepo as too much thrust, close below 3DMA with mimunim count of bars then close up again (better if it is higher than the previous high), then a quick close below 3DMA again ONLY TO ACHIEVE .618 OR 1 RETRACEMENT!. If I only apply normal ABC wave structure with its target it will be simpler and give same results!
Can you please advise me!
Well, First of all, the specific of DRPO and its market mechanics is absolutely different from just ABC retracement. Other words the nature of them is different.
Second, DRPO is directional signal, and overrule trend. You can trade DRPO "Sell" even if trend is bullish. To trade ABC to the downside you need adequate context for that.
Third, DRPO has definite qualities and confirmation algorithm. The way to trade ABCD retracement could vary.
And finally, you never know will it be ABCD or just AB retracement. DRPO in turn gives more clear picture.
Also take a note that DRPO never stops or significantly retraced after reaching 0.618 expansion target.
 
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