Forex FOREX PRO WEEKLY, December 17-21, 2018

[Deltoid88]

Update on EUR.

My main wave count proved incorrect, something little different may be going on with EUR right now in this correction. EUR remains tricky, but I see Stag's count as most probable one. However, maybe correction is already over and we are headed up, there is decent probability for that too.

4H CHART:

View attachment 40839

15 MIN CHART:

View attachment 40840

How to trade this?

First position: short entry in zone = 1.1370-1.1390, TP=1.130-1.1320, SL=1.1444
Second position: buy entry zone = 1.1290-1.1320, TP zone = 1.1580-1.1750, SL1=1.1265, SL2=1.1212

To sum up: I am bullish on EUR as long as 1.1212 support holds, this correction which I think is in wave 2 is very complex, and it is very difficult to guess with high probability proper wave count. Whatever is complicated is not good in trading, having that on mind task of trader should be to make things as simplest as possible. Maybe best approach is just to open long position against 1.1212 bottom and just wait as long as necessary until price action gives some clearer signs. Otherwise, if you think correction is not over, or that we are in downtrend with expectations of breaking down 1.1212 support, then just open short position on upside moves with wider SL.

Update on EUR.

I want to make small correction. I looked closer on 15 minute chart, and it looks like wave D is not in place yet, just first part of it - wave A. That is much more probable scenario. Sa, my main wave count is same like Stag's this time.

4H CHART:

15 MIN chart:

How to trade this?

SL for short position SL = 1.1444, SL for long position SL1=1.1265, SL2=1.1212. Entries and TP levels should be placed accordingly depending on the moment where we entered the position.

 

[Sive Morten]

Morning guys,

Today we again tilt with EUR.

Sive, I can't see any triangle-break, prices kept trading in the range instead. The Euro remained tricky like helll but the overlapping price action proved my working assumption and kept alive my bullish view.

The one I was watching has been broken on Friday, but now yes, price returned back up. Well, I'm not pretending on absolute opinion and chances on bullish price action is not least probable, as Stag said - EUR is tricky indeed. Here I just want to share with you, why I feel uncomfortable with any long poision by far. The answer stands on Dollar Index. Here is weekly chart. At first glance we have wedge, which is potentially bearish, but as market has shown W&R of "B" point few weeks ago - it has not turned down, but climbs higher and now stands stable above it. Second, and most important - we have untouched major COP target in Agreement with all time 5/8 Fib resistance and I would prefer to see it touched, before changing direction.

On EUR we also mentioned some issues. We have bearish grabbers on weekly and key level is 1.15. Once market will break it up, vanish grabbers, break K-resistance - this will change context. Now, while market stands in wide consolidation I can't talk about bullish scenario with all mentioned background. But, on intraday charts, yes, it's not forbidden of course to follow bullish patterns and setups as range is rather wide.

On 4H chart market continues upside action. As harmonic swing has been exceeded - we're watching for double. This should lead price to ~1.1415 area, which coincides with trend line resistance. Here our downside AB-CD's have been erased, but butterfly is still possible, that's why I keep it for awhile here:

On 1H chart, despite market has reached our K-resistance yesterday in the Morning, we haven't got any bearish setup, no patterns that could suggest reversal. As a result upside action continues. Now we have AB-CD OP target and butterfly at the same 1.1415 area. So, it seems this will be the key level for short-term perspectives. Probably EUR should get there right at the moment when Fed starts announcement....

So, as a bottom line - no shorts by far, as we do not have clear patterns and market moves up pretty nice. All eyes on Fed and 1.1415 area today
About long position - this is up to you. I've explained why I will be aside by far. But Stag, Deltoid analysis also have good reasons, foundation and you need to make decision by yourself.

 

[gwynfor]

Well guys, my maroon wave count served me well for the first 3 weeks of December, but looks as if all good things about to come to an end. Stag's wave count seems right, though Sive still had a bearish outlook this morning at least.

Anyway my trades tend to run for days so its far too close to Xmas to think of any more trading. I'll leave you with a chart showing what happens if you mix seasonal festivities with technical analysis. (or maybe its the UK Government's Brexit blueprint)

Thanks to all especially Sive, Stag and Deltoid for their help during the year. Wish you all a happy holiday and prosperous New Year.

 

[Sive Morten]

Thanks to all especially Sive, Stag and Deltoid for their help during the year. Wish you all a happy holiday and prosperous New Year.

Thanks mate,
I wish you to be happy in this buitiful and very hearted-warm holiday - Christmas,
Cool pic by the way

 

[Sive Morten]

Good morning,

So let's return to our muttons, EUR... No breakout has happened because Fed statement was not as dovish as market has expected this. Yesterday I've talked in detailed, why I still keep bearish view on the market, at least until it stands below 1.15 area. Now, downside action has even more chances to happen. The point is, Fed talked about 2 rate change in 2019 instead of three as it was said in September. But if you take a look at Fed Fund futures, you'll see that market barely price-in single rate change in 2019. Now it needs to adjust balance and this should lead to dollar appreciation.
Technically, market was not able even to create higher top, so both weekly grabbers are still valid. Yesterday it was also not successful attempt of upside breakout:

Our suggestion that 1.1417 area will be the key was correct. Now we have reversal candle here, which suggests some downside continuation. As new top has not been formed, we keep butterfly pattern as well:

And today guys, we finally have bearish entry setup - potential H&S pattern and "222" Sell as a right side of it. So, selling around 1.14 against the top is the scenario to think about, if you're bearish and search chances to go short.

 

[Joshnix]

Euro is a tricky tricky trade right now. I am afraid I am going to miss it. I closed out my short at break-even and I have opened a short on the top of GBP/USD's channel @ 1.2680 with a tight stop above confluence resistance around1.2760. edit note - realized my retracements were old and did not capture last weeks crash.

 

[Deltoid88]

Important update on EUR.

Triangle was working great, wave D completed in expected zone, but wave E unexpectedly finished before expected zone. I do not think this was right wave count although we have bullish move. I am changing my stance on EUR from bullish to bearish. Why? All upside moves looks like corrective in nature. I believe we have already finished upside correction for drop from 1.2550 to 1.13, and it was simple ABC correction which finished in 1.1814 level. I believe all this choppy action was consequence of being in corrective, complex ABC wave 2 to the upside which I expect to have form of double ZigZag. I think there is decent probability that EUR topped at 1.1485 level and that is now ready for significant drop and continuation of downtrend.

DAILY CHART:

4H CHART:

1H CHART:

15 MIN CHART:

How to trade this?

Short entry in zone 1.140-1.1470, SL zone=1.1487-1.1540, TP1=1.1185, TP2 zone=1.05-1.08

Conclusion: There is very high probability we are on the beginning of bearish wave 3 to downside. Now I think Sir Sive was right all along with his bearish stance. It looks like it was bullish complex correction, not bearish complex correction like I previously thought. Next few days will be interesting and crucial.

 

[Sive Morten]

Morning guys,

So yesterday was a true madness for markets across the board. Not only FX, but gold, equities, crypto as well.
What the reason for that? I tell you - this is breakout on US 10 year yields. Now 10 year yield stands just 0.25% higher than Fed rate, which is overnight. Tight spread between short-term and long-term yields (or even inverse yield curve) is a sign of coming recession. In recent 1-2 months american market is rather sensitive to this moment.
As yesterday 10-year yields has broken lower - this impacted all US markets, including crude oil. Now is the only question - whether this was just an assets rebalancing between holidays, position closing and put money in bonds, or something greater. We know the answer only in a new year probably...

So, on daily we've got upside breakout that forced us to refuse bearish view for a while. Grabbers have been erased, K-resistance almost broken. Still major upside target has not been reached yet - 1.1525 OP target and daily OB. From technical point of view it means that EUR should proceed higher, at list till this target:

On 4H chart we have another patterns with the same destination - butterfly and two AB-CD's:

On 1H chart theoretically butterfly could be formed, and its 1.618 extension will be enough to complete daily major target. So, if somehow you have longs, probably you could keep it (personally I do not have any). No shorts by far as we do not have necessary context:

 

[Deltoid88]

Important update on EUR.

Triangle was working great, wave D completed in expected zone, but wave E unexpectedly finished before expected zone. I do not think this was right wave count although we have bullish move. I am changing my stance on EUR from bullish to bearish. Why? All upside moves looks like corrective in nature. I believe we have already finished upside correction for drop from 1.2550 to 1.13, and it was simple ABC correction which finished in 1.1814 level. I believe all this choppy action was consequence of being in corrective, complex ABC wave 2 to the upside which I expect to have form of double ZigZag. I think there is decent probability that EUR topped at 1.1485 level and that is now ready for significant drop and continuation of downtrend.

DAILY CHART:

View attachment 40909

4H CHART:

View attachment 40910

1H CHART:

View attachment 40911

15 MIN CHART:

View attachment 40912

How to trade this?

Short entry in zone 1.140-1.1470, SL zone=1.1487-1.1540, TP1=1.1185, TP2 zone=1.05-1.08

Conclusion: There is very high probability we are on the beginning of bearish wave 3 to downside. Now I think Sir Sive was right all along with his bearish stance. It looks like it was bullish complex correction, not bearish complex correction like I previously thought. Next few days will be interesting and crucial.

Update on EUR.

We got bearish action, but that could be part of wave 4, which if it is the case should now be completed and there is decent probability that we are headed for one more higher high in bullish wave 5 before true bearish continuation occurs.

4H CHART:

1H CHART:

How to trade this?

First position: Long position in zone =1.1415-1.1440, SL=1.1362, TP zone = 1.1510-1.1530
Second position: Sell entry in zone = 1.1510-1.1530, SL zone = 1.16-1.1630, TP1=1.1185, TP2 zone = 1.06-1.08

To sum up: Main goal is to open short position just before main downside action occurs, maybe it is happening already, but there is decent probability that we push one more time to higher high before collapse.

 

[Deltoid88]

Update on EUR.

We got bearish action, but that could be part of wave 4, which if it is the case should now be completed and there is decent probability that we are headed for one more higher high in bullish wave 5 before true bearish continuation occurs.

4H CHART:

View attachment 40927

1H CHART:

View attachment 40928

How to trade this?

First position: Long position in zone =1.1415-1.1440, SL=1.1362, TP zone = 1.1510-1.1530
Second position: Sell entry in zone = 1.1510-1.1530, SL zone = 1.16-1.1630, TP1=1.1185, TP2 zone = 1.06-1.08

To sum up: Main goal is to open short position just before main downside action occurs, maybe it is happening already, but there is decent probability that we push one more time to higher high before collapse.

Update on EUR.

For now it looks like we have already topped on 1.1485 level, but still there is chance for new higher high. I am showing 2 most probable scenarios what will happen in my opinion. 1.1362 support important to hold for new higher high scenario.

15 MIN CHART: