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Forex FOREX PRO WEEKLY, February 04 - 08, 2019

Discussion in 'Sive Morten- Currencies and Gold Video Analysis' started by Sive Morten, Feb 2, 2019.

  1. MarleyForex

    MarleyForex Recruit

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    Gosh i got a long way to go... just started trading.. a novice.... i hope i could learn from you.
     
  2. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    Morning guys,

    Daily picture of EUR still changes slowly, the only thing that may be matter - is early downside reversal. EUR has not moved higher, right to resistance border of the flag but turned down. This might be sign of weakness, because, as we've said in weekly report, EUR looks depressed on monthly /weekly charts.

    Second issue - MACD line, hardly we'll get it, but still we could keep an eye on grabber.
    eur_d_06_02_19.

    And here is why we think that downside action is more probable. Yesterday we've discussed completion of OP target at 4H and potential "222" Buy pattern. Indeed, OP has been completed - but what reaction has followed? Almost nothing. Day before, EUR has shown no reaction on K-support area. Now price has erased recent rally and upside AB-CD pattern. In fact, we've got bearish reversal swing on 4H chart. Thus, 1.1350 Agreement area of XOP and major 5/8 Fib level is next short-term target, probably:
    eur_4h_06_02_19.

    Finally on 1H chart, even butterfly has failed - no reaction on 1.618 extension. It seems that EUR stands at some pressure, which potentially could have farer going conclusions than our next target. As a bottom line - now we do not see any context, patterns and reasons for taking long position here:
    eur_1h_06_02_19.
     
    chalo, Vokin, maciek9669 and 3 others like this.
  3. Stag

    Stag Sergeant

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    Greetings, guys. At this stage my working assumption is that the drop from 1.1514 is unfolding as an ABC zigzag - a corrective pattern. Prices are trading near to the lower boundary of the corrective price channel but there is no evidence the bottom is in.

    If we consider the momentum of wave A compared to wave C the latter has a shallower slope - a common behaviour for C waves. If it wanted to become a third wave, it should start accelerating in the yellow reversal zone towards 1.129. On the other hand, if my assumption proves to be correct, an advance above 1.1440 would signal that wave C is complete and a new rally is underway.

    EU_190206_2.
     
    Vokin, FreddyFX, Sive Morten and 4 others like this.
  4. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    Morning guys,

    On daily chart EUR action looks bearish. We see clear acceleration down in last three sessions - trading range is growing and market shows tail close. Now EUR has no Fib support levels around, only trendline support and extension targets. Nearest one stands on daily - this is 1.1340 COP. Trend stands bearish.
    Previously we've mentioned and that was a reason why yesterday we bet on further drop - market shows not normal reaction on strong supports for bullish market. It means that market is not bullish. eur_d_07_02_19.

    As Stag said - we're at culmination point. Indeed, EUR has reached our XOP target and broken all Fib support levels on a way down. Also it stands around trendline on daily chart. Upside reversal will keep chances on further appreciation, while breakout should open road to 1.12 lows, I suppose.

    Taking in consideration not only technical backgrdound, EU stock market, it seems, that downside continuation, after some pause may be, looks more probable, IMO.

    Now we do not see any bullish reversal patterns yet. The one thing that we could keep an eye on today is possible DiNapoli directional patterns on 4H. Here we have excellent thrust down, so either B&B "Sell" or DRPO "Buy" could be formed. But they are mostly tactical and make no impact on major situation.

    That's being said, trades are possible on 4H chart, based on DiNapoli patterns, but no reasons yet to go long on daily chart.
    eur_4h_07_02_19.
     
  5. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    Morning guys,

    EUR doesn't need any update today, so let's take a look at something else, say GBP. It provides not bad short-term setup. On daily chart price shows reasonable pullback after it has completed our Double bottom/AB-CD OP target. It dropped to major 3/8 Fib level and re-tests broken trend line. OS level is also near:
    gbp_d_08_02_19.

    4H chart shows that support area is Confluence support and Agreement, as downside XOP has been completed:
    gbp_4h_08_02_19.

    It makes possible to expect moderate upside action and it could be triggered by reverse H&S pattern on 1H chart:
    gbp_1h_08_02_19.

    It is difficult to foresee whether major uptrend will be re-established, but, even 100 pips upside action is nice potential for intraday setup.
     

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