FOREX PRO Weekly February 06-10, 2012

[Venelin]

1) open a fibo retracement properties (right click on a fibonacci retracement opened before)
2) watch that picture.View attachment 4773 ..set "None" in the "fibo levels style"

p.s. my background uses "dark gray" color and white and black candles.

Thanks-It`s all about background change

 

[Venelin]

Hi Sive, I have a question regarding daily DRPO.On My futures euro chart daily close is@1.3134- 4pips above 3x3. Is your price feed the same-daily close above 3x3?How crucial is 4 pips difference considering most retail traders trade spot market considering daily close may vary few hours depending on broker.Actually what is considered Daily close on spot market-00.00 GMT?
I`d appreciate your answer as I`am puzzled- can we treat daily drpo as activated or not ?!
Thank you!

 

[Triantus Shango]

Hi Sive, I have a question regarding daily DRPO.On My futures euro chart daily close is@1.3134- 4pips above 3x3. Is your price feed the same-daily close above 3x3?How crucial is 4 pips difference considering most retail traders trade spot market considering daily close may vary few hours depending on broker.Actually what is considered Daily close on spot market-00.00 GMT?
I`d appreciate your answer as I`am puzzled- can we treat daily drpo as activated or not ?!
Thank you!

an excellent question i should have asked a long time ago. thanks venelin.

 

[BeeKay8]

Sive, please correct me if I am wrong but if market CLOSES below 1.3040, will Butterfly on 4HR TF be cancelled?

 

[Sive Morten]

Sive, thanks for your weekly analysis. We all appreciate your efforts.

I just have a few questions that are not really technical analysis based. I just want to know more of your style and how you trade if you do not mind.

I recall that you once said that you are not a "breakout trader." What do you mean by this? What kind of trader are you?

What timeframe do you usually trade with? I am sure if you saw a sell or buy pattern on daily, you would take it. But what about the 1H? Do you usually hold your trades for longer term or short term? Or both?

Thanks!!!!!

Hi Beekay,
In fact, if you will read my profile - you'll see that currently I'm risk manager. I can say even more. Soon I will be moved to investment valuation and mostly will deal with stocks and bonds investing. I also will be shifted to another software - it will be Thompson Reuters instead of CQG, so, I probably will have to do researches in MT 4, since Reuters Datastream is not suitable for technical analysis.
So, with such kind of job I do not have many time to trade... Still I will try to answer:

The point that I'm not a breakout trader means that I rare trade (if at all) breakouts as they are. I can take part in move after breakout but by some other reason. Other worlds I relatively rare enter by stop OCO orders that breakout traders like to do. Also it comes from DiNapoli technique, it does not suggest breakout patterns.

My prefferable TF combination is daily-hourly. Daily I use as context and hourly as entry point estimation. I guess that there is some confusion you have about trading trend and patterns. They are a bit different. The point is that pattern, once it has formed already self-sufficient stuff - it tells you where profit is, where you the failure point is. So, pattern could be traded separately at any time frame, but better if it will be in a row with trend, of cause. So, if I will see nice pattern on houry chart - I will trade it.
But if I trade trend purely - I will take trades on hourly only in direction of daily trend. Probably you can read chapter from our school, dedicated to multiple time frame analysis - there is a nice example of trend compounding and how to understand and combine opposite trend direction on different time frames.

an excellent question i should have asked a long time ago. thanks venelin.

Guys, personally I'm not a follower of pattern's forcing. There is a lot of room to 1.2860. Do we really need to anticipate and force DRPO? We will have pretty much time to enter at retracement, if this move will start, even if we will not enter right at confirmation bar of DRPO. But this is just my HO.

Sive, please correct me if I am wrong but if market CLOSES below 1.3040, will Butterfly on 4HR TF be cancelled?

Well, on my chart this is 1.3027 low - but probably on the spot this is 1.3040. Yes, if market will move outside of initial swing of butterfly - it will be cancelled. Read chapter dedicated to harmonic patterns in our school... There are some nice examples exist...

 

[Sive Morten]

hi Sive thanks for ur immeasurable analysis.
I say thanks Commander.
Pls I have the following questions
1.In this week analysis pls I cant find the 1.3296 resistance which u said is from the thrust down bars on monthly chart.
2.pls kindly explain the formation of BB anm confusing it with Double Repo.
3.What is K resistace I guess is the coincidence of fib retracment of 0.382&0.618 on the same up or down swing.If am wrog kindly correct me.
4. In Ur Fx military course u said "MACDP show precise price level when the trend will change & it does it in one period ahead of time" my question is how can one determine at what price level wil the trend change using MACDP.
Thanks as usual.

1. This is 0.382 resistance from thrusting bar on montly TF from 1.4378-1.2727 swing. Take a look at monthly chart and use the same high and low on your chart since quotes could be slightly different.

2. The major difference that B&B is continuation pattern, while DRPO is reversal. The major Idea of B&B is that market has momentum in direction of previous trend - and by this momentum should try to continue move in the same way - that leads at least to deep retracement or even continuation. Excellent example o weekly chart - here is first retracement, market has solid downward momentum, hence it has to try to continue move by momentum and reach at least 0.618 support at 1.2860 from whole recent retracement up
DRPO is reversal pattern and appears when market can't continue move in direction of thrust. Nice potential example (it has not been formed yet totally) on daily time frame.

3. Yes, you're correct. This is just short name of Confluence resistance.

4. Well, if you will study MACD math a bit, you will understand that it is possible to estimate level, at which MACD lines will cross.

Hope this helps

 

[Sive Morten]

BTW, Guys, if somebody of you are interesting with daily Gold - here is interesting issue to watch for:
That's why also, I a bit worry about EUR/USD. Also I have to remind you that our long term expectation of 1.16 is still valid

 

[RahmanSL]

Sive, as you probably suspect or know, i am not much of a technical guy...but I do read your daily & weekly analysis carefully and evaluate your valuable data & views to incorporate into my own trading style & strategy. For your tireless efforts & time, I do thank you very2 much as your service is indeed of high value to me.

You mentioned you will be moved to "investment valuation" and I am wondering whether this means you will not have the time to post here in that time.

Once again, thank you for your most intelligent and insightful analysis.
=============================

BTW: I have been diligently monitoring the W1 chart for any movements to show which way market will go, but it seems to have frozen in time.

 

[Marketjoy Trader]

Gert, pls i am very much interested in the STAR trading technique
What are the win loss ratio and how many signal is possible in a week for instance.
i will appreciate if you can give me further details. if you dont mind you can contact me on
ayoviesa@yahoo.com

Hi Midnightrun sorry for not giving more information about the last setup
i did place 2 long Post yesterday about how STAR works but i cant go to deep in detail about the indicator cos they are custom made and not mine.
but they are based on EMA SMA and Hull moving average's and the Force index indicator thats it
only we use custom version who are adjustable to 0.001 instead of only example ( EMA at 5 we can do EMA at setting 0.005)
how the trigger works just read the 2 long post
also it is not my intention to give a signal service i just try to find setups who agree with Sive's analyze
just tell me if that is oke if not i wil stop posting here

Greets

Gert

 

[DJG]

i thought this section is for Sive to give his analysis and his opinion about the market but i am starting to see that it's turning to a place where people are advertising for trading system ?

DJG