FOREX PRO Weekly, February 07-11, 2011

[Robb702]

timing

Hi Sive,

Again thanks a lot for you effort and your very interesting comments on the market: you're the best.
I tried to simplify your statement 'crucial level is 1.3650 on 4-hour chart'. So that would mean that if we're below 1.3650 around noon, wait for further decline below 1.36. Otherwise big chance to go back to 1.37 and above.
But, which noon? I live in The Netherlands: here it is CET, but I think you are in GMT/UTC which is 1 hour earlier. And of course there are more timezones, New York is UTC-5... We are all looking at different 4-hour charts. Or should we watch for 2 subsequent 4 hr periods to be below 1.3650 to make the decision?

Just my thoughts.

Rob

 

[Sive Morten]

Hi Sive,

Again thanks a lot for you effort and your very interesting comments on the market: you're the best.
I tried to simplify your statement 'crucial level is 1.3650 on 4-hour chart'. So that would mean that if we're below 1.3650 around noon, wait for further decline below 1.36. Otherwise big chance to go back to 1.37 and above.
But, which noon? I live in The Netherlands: here it is CET, but I think you are in GMT/UTC which is 1 hour earlier. And of course there are more timezones, New York is UTC-5... We are all looking at different 4-hour charts. Or should we watch for 2 subsequent 4 hr periods to be below 1.3650 to make the decision?

Just my thoughts.

Rob

I use futures, so they look identically in any part of the World

Yes 1.3650 is major level to watch for. If you're bearish, then better enter short after 1.36 breakout. THis is safer tactic.

 

[maarnio]

There is a Double REPO Buy at 15 min chart EUR/USD

 

[MidnightRun]

Good morning,
market still stands below 0.618 Fib resistance at 1.3721 and this holds bearish daily bias intact.

Today crucial level is 1.3650 on 4-hour chart. If market will hold there - then we can possess ourselves on long side with target 1.3780, that is 0.786 Fib resistance 100% Fib expansion target and weekly pivot resistance1

If not - wait when market will move below 1.36 and then enter on retracement on the short side, with the target 1.3520 or 1.3460.

Sive, need to double-check this:
"Today crucial level is 1.3650 on 4-hour chart. If market will hold there - then we can possess ourselves on long side"
which means that if market will not go lower than this level? And if market goes lower and holds /consolidates lower, than chances are the down move will continue? Is this what you mean? (though it seems obvious from what you said later on than this is the case).
Thanks

 

[Sentinel]

Hi Sive,

Long time no see.. I was busy with my job, but continue watching the forum even though I am unable to write. Lost a lot on yesterdays DRPO trade (I was agressive since Daily DRPOs do not come often). It was a LAL. So maybe I should stay away.

Anyway, excellent B&B opportunity engraving on hourly chart.

 

[Sive Morten]

Sive, need to double-check this:
"Today crucial level is 1.3650 on 4-hour chart. If market will hold there - then we can possess ourselves on long side"
which means that if market will not go lower than this level? And if market goes lower and holds /consolidates lower, than chances are the down move will continue? Is this what you mean? (though it seems obvious from what you said later on than this is the case).
Thanks

Hi MidnightRun.
You're absolutely right. The major idea here is to determine - does move down (that has just started in the morning) just a retracement in 4-hour ABC or this is turnover?
1.3650 is K-area + weekly pivot. If market just retraces lower after 0.618 target - it should not break it.
If it does - then, further upmove under question...

 

[Venelin]

Hi Sive,

Long time no see.. I was busy with my job, but continue watching the forum even though I am unable to write. Lost a lot on yesterdays DRPO trade (I was agressive since Daily DRPOs do not come often). It was a LAL. So maybe I should stay away.

Anyway, excellent B&B opportunity engraving on hourly chart.

Agree on the 1h B&B-just needs conformation ...

 

[Sive Morten]

EUR/USD Daily Update, Friday 11, 2011

Hello everybody,
Our expectations has come to life and market continues its move down.
The nearest target is 1.3520, 100% target stands at 1.3385.
But be aware of 1.3460-1.3470 area that could show solid support, at least during first touch.

Now, if you're not in the market yet, take a look at 4-hour chart. Daily trend is bearish, 4-hour trend is bearish, so as a price action. It means that you can use shallow retracement on 4-hour or even hourly chart for entering on the short side. May be you can wait, until market will reach 1.3520 - some retracement is more probable after that.

On hourly chart we also see some confirmation to bearish bias - DRPO failure and bearish Dynamic Pressure.

So, that's being said - all trends are bearish now, wait for shallow retracement on hourly or 4-hour chart (0.382 I suppose ) for entering, if you're not in yet. Targets are 1.3580 and 1.3385. Be aware of support around 1.3460

 

[kasfulfx]

target

hi sive..would like to thanks to u for your great effort endlessly.

sir, i am holding 3 sell order in 1.36 to 1.37 area.from 4H tf, i could see nice downtrend making its move. but im little afraid of my target area.it would be around 1.325 to 1.337--gain from fibo(.5-.618).

will that target area is possible from your analysis sive?thanks a lot.

 

[Sive Morten]

hi sive..would like to thanks to u for your great effort endlessly.

sir, i am holding 3 sell order in 1.36 to 1.37 area.from 4H tf, i could see nice downtrend making its move. but im little afraid of my target area.it would be around 1.325 to 1.337--gain from fibo(.5-.618).

will that target area is possible from your analysis sive?thanks a lot.

Hi,
From daily perspective 1.3250 target is a bit extended and not logical currently, because, it below even 100% expansion and daily level of oversold.
To possess yourself on this target you should be a long-term trader, that trades on weekly charts.

If you trade on daily basis, then I suppose that 1.3460 or 1.3385 are more suitable targets.
But this is just my personal opinion, you may absolutely disrespect it, because the choice is up to you.

Concerning the possibility of reaching of this target - I can't say definitely. First we should see, how market will response on daily AB-CD and confluence support. Because it could be just AB-CD retracement in long-term bull trend.