FOREX PRO Weekly February 13-17, 2012

[Sive Morten]

Hi Sive sorry to bother you with this i just want to make sure of the double repo pattern currently on the map,on your charts i can see that we had a close on the bottom side of the 3x3 but on my Meta 4 platform i never had a close there,just for interest sake how do i treat the close busy happening now,on my charts it is the first close since the up thrust started within the 3x3,do i see that as my first penetration,thanks for all your time.

Hi Johan,
That was not DRPO - that's why you haven't seen second close above 3x3. This was B&B "Sell" trade.

 

[Sive Morten]

I've been trying to include these types of studies in my trading lately and it does seem to help especially with trying to understand the market and indecisive moves like we've seen recently with the EUR/USD. Maybe it will help some of you as well....

~Markus

Hi Markus,
really interesting stuff. BTW, on daily AUD/USD could appear DRPO "Sell"....
In your work we see confirmation of different markets each other, but what about reversal points? In such kind of analysis you may see, say, confirmations, but most important here is the moments to enter. How do you catch them?
Also, just 2 cents about Dollar index. Not so far we've made long-term analysis, and expect that it will create new highs at quarterly chart. This is somewhere around 1.15-1.16 in EUR/USD terms.
It will be welcomed if you will post your analysis here in the beginning of the day, because I'm really interested in how you will catch the moments to enter by such cross-relations.
In fact, relation between different markets is well-known thing, but I mostly use it for business cycles analysis. J.Murphy wrote excellent book (although it demands an update) - "Intermarket technical analysis".

 

[Oddvin]

Good morning Sive,

Thanks for your brilliant work and analyses.

As a former banktrader what's your take on China declaring Euro support? I'm all for technical anayses above anything, but
this is in deed political intervention on a high level. We had a sharp rally during asia session in e/u as well as stock indexes, so I'm wathcing the levels very carefully atm.

We still trade in the recent support shelf and as long as 1.3025 holds, anything could happen from here, allthough I'm permabear

Any thoughts?

Oddvin

 

[4x4Ever]

Thanks Sive for the book recommendation. I am just new and learning these types of studies. I will definitely check out J.Murphys book.

For now I'm just watching to see how these charts develop over the coming days. After the pull back in the new york session yesterday both the S&P and AUD/USD have turned back up. AUD/USD is now back in the channel and at time of writing is trading in the 1.0750ish area which has seemed to be strong resistance. For your preferred DRPO Sell context I suspect we would like to see this break back above the 3x3 reach 1.0845 area (on my charts) and then turn and close below 3x3 again. This would give us a nice wash and rinse of highs and could trap the break out traders in long positions. Only time will tell. Hourly trends are now bullish. In the case of S&P it bounced off the channel bottom and has quickly returned back to the channel top. So for now it would seem to early to say if this reversal is in play or if we are just seeing a pull back.

Have a great day everyone. Here's the charts as the NY session is about to open.

S&P


Dollar Index

 

[4x4Ever]

Forgot the AUD/USD Charts

 

[Sipi]

Hi Sive!

On daily tf. market has hit major 0.382 support at 1.3058 (almost) on Iraq news. And now we have to expect 0.618 retrace up because of H&S?
Please confirm, (or correct me)!

 

[Venelin]

Hi guys!So far so good-4hSG worked to perfection, 1h 38.2 pullback signaled short entry to the pip, next 1.3030-1.3050 agreement area! Since 1.3030 was tested twice and did hold , do you guys think that for today SG is enough and market will leave agreement area undone? I know market rarely leaves targets undone, but I see 1.3030 as very strong support, at least to be broken today!

 

[georgeta]

Hi guys!So far so good-4hSG worked to perfection, 1h 38.2 pullback signaled short entry to the pip, next 1.3030-1.3050 agreement area! Since 1.3030 was tested twice and did hold , do you guys think that for today SG is enough and market will leave agreement area undone? I know market rarely leaves targets undone, but I see 1.3030 as very strong support, at least to be broken today!

I should close half position because of the W&R but I am greedy so I just move stops.

 

[georgeta]

Hi Sive!

On daily tf. market has hit major 0.382 support at 1.3058 (almost) on Iraq news. And now we have to expect 0.618 retrace up because of H&S?
Please confirm, (or correct me)!

If you care for my opinion, you should not enter long unless you have a strong pattern and after the 1.618 target is hit. Major trend is bearish and important target has not been hit so you dont have any context for log position.

 

[Sipi]

If you care for my opinion, you should not enter long unless you have a strong pattern and after the 1.618 target is hit. Major trend is bearish and important target has not been hit so you dont have any context for log position.

Of course, I have not entered yet. I'm just watcnig the next possible move.