FOREX PRO WEEKLY, February 19-23, 2018

[Robban68]

Still in range. A DRPO buy in 4HR timeframe, or at least a look a like. 1.244x was never played this week so I’m not comfortable to short this without it. Will look for a buy at the low, maybe there will be a rejection of 1.223x on Daily/Week. Time will tell If we will go there, 1.22–>1.244

 

[Sive Morten]

isn't there also a stop grabber in 240Min Chart? Suggesting the low of 1.22 to be taken out?

Hi Ian. Yes it is grabber but it's "must' target a small low 2 bars to the left and it is already has been broken...

 

[Sive Morten]

Good morning,

So, on EUR we see minor reaction MPP support, but still, as we've said the floor probably should be around 1.2235 major Fib support and daily OS:

On 4-hour chart we do not have a lot of trading setups as well. Market has broken all major Fib supports down but has not shown any even 3/8 retracement. Now we're watching for AB-CD support area around 1.2237 and WPS1. Potentially market could form here DRPO "Buy" pattern. It looks even better on dollar index chart:

On hourly chart I would have to get butterfly pattern. Just because it will finalize downside action and market will reach OP target. Second - it will give us more confidence, so we could expect at least minor upside bounce out from here and this will increase the safety of position taking as we could move stops to breakeven later.

Still, I'm not looking too far ahead, so it is not the fact that this will become major upside reversal. So let's treat it by far as possible bounce up from daily support area...

 

[Robban68]

Good morning,

So, on EUR we see minor reaction MPP support, but still, as we've said the floor probably should be around 1.2235 major Fib support and daily OS:
View attachment 36390

On 4-hour chart we do not have a lot of trading setups as well. Market has broken all major Fib supports down but has not shown any even 3/8 retracement. Now we're watching for AB-CD support area around 1.2237 and WPS1. Potentially market could form here DRPO "Buy" pattern. It looks even better on dollar index chart:
View attachment 36391

On hourly chart I would have to get butterfly pattern. Just because it will finalize downside action and market will reach OP target. Second - it will give us more confidence, so we could expect at least minor upside bounce out from here and this will increase the safety of position taking as we could move stops to breakeven later.
View attachment 36392

Still, I'm not looking too far ahead, so it is not the fact that this will become major upside reversal. So let's treat it by far as possible bounce up from daily support area...

Probably 1.232-1234 zone could be a good Intraday short for 100pips for a resonable risk.

 

[Stag]

Though more than 3 different scenarios are valid at time of my post...

If PA breaks the upper boundary of the corrective price channel and the extreme of wave "b" is exceeded at 1.2337, it leaves behind a three-wave decline from the previous top at 1.2352.

Since three-wave moves are corrections according to the Wave Principle, they are to be more than fully retraced once complete. In this sceanrio the advance should take a form of an impulse wave. Taking out 1.2352 opens the door advancing higher into the green area while 1.2280 holds as support.

We need to see prices breaking both cahnnels' lower boundary and back below 1.2280 impulsively for confidence further weakness is in force..

Neither way is confirmed yet.

 

[IanN]

Hi Ian. Yes it is grabber but it's "must' target a small low 2 bars to the left and it is already has been broken...

Thanks for telling me this Sive. I was under the impression that a major low should fall when Grabber is completed and not just nearest. But the concept makes now even more sense to me. Usually stop is placed under the closest low or high when the crossing of the MACDP gives a Signal

 

[Venelin]

If PA breaks the upper boundary of the corrective price channel and the extreme of wave "b" is exceeded at 1.2337, it leaves behind a three-wave decline from the previous top at 1.2352.

Since three-wave moves are corrections according to the Wave Principle, they are to be more than fully retraced once complete. In this sceanrio the advance should take a form of an impulse wave. Taking out 1.2352 opens the door advancing higher into the green area while 1.2280 holds as support.

We need to see prices breaking both cahnnels' lower boundary and back below 1.2280 impulsively for confidence further weakness is in force..

Neither way is confirmed yet.

View attachment 36399

Hi, Euro is anoying to trade right now:

And Dollar index-possibly in flat correction:

 

[Stag]

Hi, Euro is anoying to trade right now..

And Dollar index-possibly in flat correction...

Hi Venelin,

Euro: yes, wave 4 triangle is one of those four scenarios I keep an eye on.

Dollar index: yes, may be in a flat correction, I was referring exactly to this in post #7: "...The dip registering its low at 88.27 did satisfy expectations for wave "b" of an expanded flat correction. If it is a "c" of expanded flat, price action may peak slightly above 90.60."

Guys, we have a tricky situation in the Euro. I plan to make a brief summary of the possible scenarios during the weekend, as clearly as possible, if you do not mind.

 

[Sive Morten]

Guys, we have a tricky situation in the Euro.

Hi Stag, no doubts. Indeed rather blur situation...

Please put your update in new weekly thread...

 

[Robban68]

"Still in range. A DRPO buy in 4HR timeframe, or at least a look a like. 1.244x was never played this week so I’m not comfortable to short this without it. Will look for a buy at the low, maybe there will be a rejection of 1.223x on Daily/Week. Time will tell If we will go there, 1.22–>1.244"

It took 2 weeks to complete 1.244.The price rarely forget what's missing . ECB decision tomorrow only one level to track, 1.2506, if price start to close above this level be careful with short, wait for rejection on higher TF