FOREX PRO Weekly February 20-24, 2012

Triantus Shango

Sergeant Major
Messages
1,372
hi guys, i thought iwould write down the important levels i see on my charts for very short termtrading. i don't mean to steal sive'sthunder ;-), it's just a process to help me double check with all of you what thehell it is i see on the charts and what i am missing.

so here's what I seeon the charts--but some explanations first:

all prices are SPOTrates taken from MT4 on EST time zone. also i don't mention pivot levels unless they converge with some other levels.

TI = technicalindicator
OB = overbought
OS = oversold
TF = time frame
BB = bollinger band,so BB1 = bollinger band standard deviation 1, and so on; period is 20 on all TFs except on H1 where iuse period 17.
Stochastic =Dinapoli's preferred Stochastic

regarding fibretrace levels, although dinapoli doesn't use levels beyond 100%, I do becauseoften market will stop, pause, and reverse from those levels. levels are: 113, 127.2, 141, 161.8, 200. ifind 127.2 and 161.8 to be more significant usually.

UPSIDE:

MONTHLY: price has crossed over 38.2% fib node of dropfrom 4370. 50% node comes in 3493 and at3505 we have the 38.2% node of the drop from 4866. 100MA has been pierced and 89MA (some peopleuse fib numbers for Mas) comes in at 3446.

OB/OS: williams %R failed to enter the OS areadeeply and is already pointing up but no confirmation until 50 isbreached. Stochastic has crossover andalthough still in OS is pointing up. MACD is still bearish although indicatingthat downward momentum is waning. finally, price action has been contained by within the midBB and lower BB1.


WEEKLY: price is at 38.2% fib of the drop from 4549and holding slightly above the midBB. itis quite conceivable that price will pull back under the midBB as midBB moreoften than not works as RSST/SPPT on the first approach.

DAILY: to the upside we have 61.8% fib at 3373 ofthe drop from 3838; 38.2% fib of the drop from 4197 at 3413; 38.2% fib of thedrop from 4531 at 3353 and coincides with the 61.8% fib extension of thefollowing ABCD: A(2634), B(3315),C(2975)--100% fib ext comes in at 3654. MACD is still bullish but momentum is loosing strength.

OB/OS: both Williams %R and Stochastic are in the OBzone.

So we have a K-area around 3353/3373 to 3413.


H4: around 3364/66we have 3 fib retrace nodes converging: 113, 127.2, and 161.8 of the drop from 3321, 3283, and 3216respectively. And around 3415 we haveanother 127.2 and 141 fib nodes from 2 of the previously mentioned drops. MACD is also losing momentum.

OB/OS: Williams %R and Stochastic are in OB zone.


H1: same as H4 for the levels; MACD turned bearish; Williams %R andStochastic are in the middle of the road and therefore inconclusive.

M15: ABCD: A(3235), B(3342), C(3270) --> 100% ext = 3375 which also coincides with the abovementioned K-area andmarket has been holding flat at that level now for the past couple ofhours. currently bullish divergence onMACD and price is attempting to break to the upside.


DOWNSIDE: i ran out of time so can't write it upnow. your homework ;-)
 

Venelin

Master Sergeant
Messages
401
Hi guys,
On the radar I have possible 4H DRPO sell or B&B buy (1.3350). The second is in agreement with Sive`s plan! Good luck!
 

Triantus Shango

Sergeant Major
Messages
1,372
venelin, no offfence, but what are you smoking man? ;) i don't see any DRPO or BnB on H4. it's been straight up since 3250. that being said, get ready for the big short... between 346x and 3600.
 

Venelin

Master Sergeant
Messages
401
venelin, no offfence, but what are you smoking man? ;) i don't see any DRPO or BnB on H4. it's been straight up since 3250. that being said, get ready for the big short... between 346x and 3600.

I was just giving heads up for POTENTIAL patterns!
 

fxmig

Private
Messages
24
Sive,

For futures, what symbol would I look up? Sorry for dumb question but I have traded Spot all this time. I just switched to CQG and I want to view futures chart but there are several Euro symbol options I am unfamiliar. Please let me know

Thanks

Mike
 

naggie

Recruit
Messages
9
Trend definition

Hello Sive,

I want average time frame of my trades to be 3 days. Which time frame trend I should trade? 4H trend or daily trend?

And, what is your definition of "4H trend" or "daily trend"? And, how I setup MT4 chart for trend trading.

I only want to trade in the direction of the trend, not the retracement.

Looking forward for your reply
 

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
13,915
Sive,

For futures, what symbol would I look up? Sorry for dumb question but I have traded Spot all this time. I just switched to CQG and I want to view futures chart but there are several Euro symbol options I am unfamiliar. Please let me know

Thanks

Mike

Hi Mike,
There are two major trading sessions on EUR futures. So called "Settlement" session (it lasts only during pit session) and 24 hours electronic globex session that has a break only for 20 min per day.
Sometimes using Settlement session is useful for getting confirmation of trend shifting or some patterns that are based on penetration of some indicators.
On daily and intraday charts you need to use leading contract and Globex session this is "EU" means EURO, "A" means Globex, "H2" means March 2012 (leading contract now). So, your code will be EUA. CQG automatically will post "F." means futures before EUA and automatically adds "H2". If you, for instance want to look at June contract ("M") you will have to type EUAM, September - "U", and December "Z". EU futures trade at quarterly cycle.
When you shift to weekly and higher time frames, CQG automatically will show you continuation charts - so it links all futures since EUR has been launched in single chain. To change time frame you have to type "," and then A-annual, S-semianual, Q-quarterly, M, W, D and lower in minutes. So, if you want to look at 4-hour chart - type ",240".
Be careful with expiration and first notice day, if you trade futures. You have to make roll over of your position prior first notice day, if you want to avoid delivery.
Hope this helps.
Also note that EUR futures have 125K value but not 100K as on spot.
 

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
13,915
Hello Sive,

I want average time frame of my trades to be 3 days. Which time frame trend I should trade? 4H trend or daily trend?

And, what is your definition of "4H trend" or "daily trend"? And, how I setup MT4 chart for trend trading.

I only want to trade in the direction of the trend, not the retracement.

Looking forward for your reply

Hi Naggie,
I use MACD to identify trend. I suggest you to read following chapters in our Forex Military School, dedicated to trend estimation and compounding:
Chapter 23
If some questions will remain - welcome back and we will discuss them.
 
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